WATCH: IMPACT PLAYER – KEVIN KISNER
After a few weeks of par-70 courses, the PGA Tour heads to TPC Deere Run, which is a par-71 course that plays just under 7,300 yards. TPC Deere Run typically plays as one of the easiest courses on tour, so targeting golfers that avoid bogeys will be important. But, overall Birdie or Better leaders on tour could also provide a route to success for lineups this week. Since 2009, only one winning score has been worse than 20-under for the tournament. In fact, golfers that have finished in the top-10 have averaged 17-under or better. We can hopefully look forward to a crowded leaderboard as the field goes low through the weekend on a relatively easy course.
There are two ways to attack TPC Deere Run. The conventional thought process on a par-71 course of this length would be to target Greens in Regulation. The fact that there is one more par 3 than par 5 will lead many to target Par 3 Birdie or Better Percentage. While that is important, the par 5 scorers we’ll target when we go Against the Grain can more than make up the difference with three par 5s.
Going With The Grain
- Driving Accuracy
- Greens in Regulation
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Par 3 Birdie or Better
The battle cry of PGA DFS is not to put too much stock into one missed cut. Kevin Kisner ($10,400) missed the cut at The Greenbrier Classic last week, but that shouldn’t scare you off of him this week. He has been on a roll all year as that missed cut was only his second in 15 starts this year. Kisner is 12th in Driving Accuracy and 14th in Strokes Gained: Approach. He has also played well here recently, posting two top-35 finishes in his last two starts. Kisner makes for an excellent play this week.
Danny Lee ($10,200) has a great blend of recent form and course history. Lee has made seven straight cuts this year. When Lee last played this event in 2015, he finished in third place. Lee is above average in each Birdie or Better category and is 36th overall in 2017. Though it’s difficult to predict, Lee is also one of the better putters on tour as he’s 36th in Strokes Gained: Putting this year.
Chris Stroud ($6,800) and Robert Garrigus ($6,600) are interesting bargain plays this week. They both have found success here in the past. Stroud has made 7-of-8 cuts and Garrigus has made 5-of-7 cuts at this event. Stroud possesses a unique combination of par 3 and par 5 scoring which can lead to success when coupled with his ability to hit fairways (43rd in Driving Accuracy). Garrigus is 30th in Greens in Regulation on tour this year and has made a couple of cuts in a row after a string of missed cuts. Both Stroud and Garrigus are worth consideration in GPP lineups given their course fit.
Going Against the Grain
- Driving Distance
- Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
- Par 5 Birdie or Better
It’s hard to fit Daniel Berger ($11,300) into either of these categories because he does so many things well on the golf course. To be fair, Berger is a volatile golfer with a runner-up finish, missed cut and a victory in his last three starts. Berger’s stat line for 2017 is as impressive as they come though, as you can see below. Berger would be a very difficult fade when considering his upside this week. It would be no surprise if he finishes in the top-five come Sunday.
|Strokes Gained: Off the Tee||38th|
|Strokes Gained: Approach||19th|
|Strokes Gained: Putting||24th|
|Birdie or Better Percentage||14th|
Kyle Stanley ($9,600) is one of the more expensive plays this week for good reason. Including his win at the Quicken Loans National, Stanley has made 9-of-10 cuts. He also has some course history in his favor with two straight top-25 finishes at this event. He is currently fifth and third in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Strokes Gained: Approach, respectively. His ability to avoid bogeys (24th on tour) and to score under par (23rd on tour) could make him an excellent play in all formats this week.
Kevin Tway ($7,600) has no doubt cooled off from his red hot late April stretch. There’s reason for optimism this week though. Tway is one of the longest drivers on tour at seventh in Driving Distance. If his ball striking can click this week he should be in the thick of things as he’ll have some of the shortest approach shots in the field. He has made 10-of-14 cuts this year, so he’s even a cash consideration at this price.
Speaking of long off the tee, Luke List ($7,000) is in the field this week. He is tied for the lead in Driving Distance on tour this year. He isn’t just a bomber though, as List is also 26th in Greens in Regulation so far in 2017. While he can struggle a bit with scoring on par 4s, he’s eighth and seventh in Par 3 Scoring and Par 5 Scoring, respectively. List has the ability to take advantage of a course and score well, which can lead to good things in a birdie fest like the John Deere.
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