Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.

(fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary. The typical median fppk for a 2015 race was in the 3s. Plate tracks tend to be lower and short tracks tend to run higher due to the amount of laps.)

1. Kevin Harvick ($9,200) – The record for 2nd place finishes was broken last year. Harvick’s 13 second place finishes is a bummer for him, but for Daily Fantasy NASCAR players, he might as well have 16 wins. In DFS racing, players want speed and consistency from top picks. With 23 top 5s, it doesn’t get any better than that. (5.5 fppk)

2. Kyle Busch ($9,100) – How can last year’s champ not be number one? How is it that Kyle Busch is ranked second when NASCAR is changing to a looser race car that suits his aggressive style? That’s exactly why. Rowdy will again win a handful of races, but with less aero grip in the turns, it’ll be wreckers or checkers often for the uber aggro 18 Toyota. (4.8 fppk)

3. Matt Kenseth ($9,000) – At Kentucky and Darlington, NASCAR experimented with a less downforce rules package. This has now become the basis for the 2016 rules package. At those races the JGR team dominated (2 wins, 7 top 10s). Kenseth was not flashy in 2015 (minus Martinsville), but he reeled in 20 top 10s and 5 wins. (5.4 fppk)

4. Jimmie Johnson ($9,600) – The 48 struggled during the second half of the season, but seemed to right the ship during the Chase with a win at Texas and 4 other top 10s. If anyone can adjust to change, it’s the 48 team. They’ve won championships in 3 different stock car types over the last 10 years. (3.4 fppk)

5. Brad Keselowski ($8,500) – Last season, the spotlight was firmly planted on BK’s teammate. Logano may have been the star, but Keselowski was the epitome of consistency with 28 top 10s (the most in NASCAR). The 2016 rules change should favor The Blue Deuce (or White Deuce). NASCAR tested the 2016 low downforce package at Kentucky and Darlington last season, and BK topped 100 fantasy points in both races. (5.6 fppk)

6. Joey Logano ($9,300) – The best driver of 2015 with 6 wins, including 3 consecutive wins during the Chase, was Joey Logano. It’s not 2015 anymore. Logano benefited from the rules package that favored drivers with extensive experience in Xfinity cars. Logano is a great driver and will continue to grow, but he’ll fall back to Earth this season. (5.9 fppk)

7. Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($9,900) – In Daily Fantasy Baseball there are players that are good, but against left handed pitchers they’re great. That’s Dale Earnhardt Jr. He’s a top 10 guy at intermediate tracks, but never a race winner. At short tracks and restrictor plate tracks, he’s a must pick. (4.5 fppk)

8. Carl Edwards ($8,500) – It took Edwards awhile to adjust to his new team, but by the end of the season all was well. No driver has been more vocal about their love for the slicker handling 2016 rules package than Carl Edwards. It should come as no surprise that he finished 4th at Kentucky and won at Darlington. (4.7 fppk)

9. Kurt Busch ($8,300) – Put on your conspiracy theory hat. Many fans believe Stewart-Haas Racing is a divided team (Team Stewart: Tony and Danica, Team Haas: Kevin and Kurt). The results over the last two seasons seem to confirm this split. The cars that Harvick and Busch unload each weekend are usually the best in class. With a top notch ride, Kurt can dominate on any given week at any track. (3.5 fppk)

10. Martin Truex Jr. ($8,300) – Furniture Row is a part of the Richard Childress Racing alliance, but RCR is one of the weakest big time teams (their last win was 2013). The 2016 rules package change will hit the small teams hard. Although Truex played the role of Cinderella last season, yet another rules change will be tough for his small team with less R&D. He won’t be the pumpkin this year, but it’s hard to imagine Furniture Row outperforming 2015. (4.0 fppk)

11. Jamie McMurray ($7,800) – Outside of the top 10, these drivers are mainly place differential and finishing position plays. Drivers like McMurray, et al., do not consistently lead laps and run fast laps. McMurray flirted with a win at Martinsville and Phoenix, but nonetheless 2015 was a victory lane drought for Jamie Mac. (4.4 fppk)

12. Ryan Newman ($7,400) – Newman was never a contender for a win in 2016, and as his career winds down, it’s likely that he’ll never contend again. Not to mention the fact that RCR hasn’t won since 2013 (the last win by an RCR driver not named Kevin Harvick was 2011). It’s alright, this is Daily Fantasy NASCAR and wins are overrated. Newman is a DFS BFF. With an average finish of 14th and only two bad races all season, DFS players can always count on Newman. (4.3 fppk)

13. Aric Almirola ($7,300) – There’s been a revolving door for drivers at Richard Petty Motorsports since they opened the doors in 2009. This will be Almirola’s fifth year racing for The King, making him the longest tenured RPM driver ever. It hasn’t been a spectacular run for Almirola, but he’s been consistent and his 2015 average finish of 17.9 was the best of his career. This a safe, low cost DFS pick every week. (4.7 fppk)

14. Kyle Larson ($7,700) – This is the sexy preseason Daily Fantasy NASCAR pick. The experts and message board regulars are smitten. Larson shined at times last season, and if weren’t for an illness at Martinsville, he could have possibly pointed himself into the Chase. The 2016 rules package perfectly suits this aggressive dirt track racer. Larson will be boom or bust all season, but year three of his career could be a multi-win season. (3.7 fppk)

15. Paul Menard ($7,500) – It’s a matter of value and predictability that makes Menard a viable option each week. You can pencil Menard in around 17th, give or take two positions. In 50/50 games, his finishing position is all a DFS player needs and the place differential points are a bonus. Menard sometimes makes for an interesting GPP play. His low ceiling drives his ownership down, but once or twice a year he cracks the top five. (4.0 fppk)

16. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,900) – It’s common for NASCAR fans to get down on young drivers that do not perform. In other sports, rookies quickly blossom into superstars. This doesn’t happen in NASCAR. Look at the names above Ricky? He’s going to beat Harvick, Johnson, and Kyle Busch? Put a rookie in a 43 car field of a Xfinity drivers and just one of the drivers that were just mentioned. The rookie still isn’t going to win. Temper your expectations. Top 20s and the occasional top 10 for the always underprice Stenhouse is a great thing. (3.7 fppk)

17. Kasey Kahne ($8,400) – What a nightmare 2015 was. Normally, Kahne is a top 10 driver, but last season was just one of those year. The rules package change may be a boon for Kahne. He made his way through the ranks running on dirt, but since joining Hendrick Motorsports, he’s hasn’t been allowed to run in these types of races. You have to listen to the guy that signs the checks. (2.6 fppk)

18. Greg Biffle ($7,600) – Maybe, The Bif gets one more win to close out his career; have fun predicting when. This is an aging driver on a team that is struggling to build the right cars. Biffle’s twenty top 20s puts him five ahead of his teammate Stenhouse, but their careers are going in different directions. The Bif’s last win was at Michigan in 2013. (4.2 fppk)

19. Clint Bowyer ($7,600) – The last two seasons at MWR were a mess. Now, Bowyer has to try to contend on a smaller team. It just doesn’t look good for what was only a place differential play already. There are optimistic rumblings that the rules package will work for Bowyer, and that there is a technical alliance between Stewart-Haas and HScott. That could be the case, but it’s a technical alliance with the man he’s replacing, Team Stewart. (3.3 fppk)

20. AJ Allmendinger ($7,100) – Everyone knows he’s a wiz at road courses. A lot of DFS players are also quick to his prowess at flat, short tracks. A.J. isn’t a bad all around driver. He’s a part of a small team, but they’re boosted by the RCR technical alliance. The biggest rub against Allmendinger is that he laid an egg in several races last year when all eyes were on him. (3.4 fppk)