Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.

(fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary. The typical median fppk for a 2016 race was in the 3s. Plate tracks tend to be lower and short tracks tend to run higher due to the amount of laps.)

RANKDRIVERSALARY
1Kyle Busch$10,700
2Brad Keselowski$9,600
3Denny Hamlin$10,000
4Kevin Harvick$10,300
5Jimmie Johnson$10,500

1. Kyle Busch ($10,700) – He’s the favorite based on his domination in the spring. Other teams will experiment during practice, but the 18 car will merely work on tweeks. His car has already proven that it has speed at Martinsville. (4.9 fppk)

2. Brad Keselowski ($9,600) – Martinsville is a wonderful and horrible track for BK. He’s had one of the fastest cars over the last three Martinsville races (148 fast laps over that span). He’s also wrecked in three of the last five races at Martinsville. (4.5 fppk)

3. Denny Hamlin ($10,000) – Everyone has a track. Martinsville is Denny’s track. He has five wins and a 76 percent top-10 finish rate at Martinsville (3rd). (3.7 fppk)

4. Kevin Harvick ($10,300) – I don’t want to sound like Sam-I-Am, but you can play Kevin Harvick at any track. Play Harvick at high and low banking, I tell you to play Harvick in every ranking. (5.8 fppk)

5. Jimmie Johnson ($10,500) – The last time Jimmie won at Martinsville, he won the championship (2013). Like Kevin Harvick, Jimmie is great everywhere, so we often forget that Martinsville is one of his top-three tracks (eight wins and a 79 percent top-10 rate). (4.1 fppk)


RANKDRIVERSALARY
6Kurt Busch$9,000
7Jeff Gordon$8,800
8Carl Edwards$8,900
9Matt Kenseth$9,200
10Danica Patrick$6,600

6. Kurt Busch ($9,000) – Don’t expect laps led points or fast lap points, but you are perfect in your right to demand a top-10 finish. He has 20 top-10s this season (5th). (4.0 fppk)

7. Jeff Gordon ($8,800) – All of the seating sections at Martinsville have already been named, but if they add a grandstand, then it will be named after Jeff Gordon. That’s how good he is at Martinsville (nine wins and an 80 percent top-10 rate). (3.8 fppk)

8. Carl Edwards ($8,900) – Through the first four short-track races, Carl Edwards was the best short-track racer in NASCAR. Since then, not so much. Martinsville was one of those first four. JGR nailed the setup in the spring, so its a step ahead of the field. (4.3 fppk)

9. Matt Kenseth ($9,200) – You look at the spring finish and see a 15th, and say, “No, thank you.” Wrong. Kenseth started upfront on multiple restarts, but he was locked out every time, but most importantly, he was left high and dry during the last restart by his teammate. (4.0 fppk)

10. Danica Patrick ($6,600) – The trick at Martinsville is to stay inside the top 20. Avoid hot-headed mistakes. Avoid overdriving a corner. Keep it up for 400 laps, then see if things go your way the last 100. Danica has pulled this off four times in seven Martinsville races. (4.3 fppk)


RANKDRIVERSALARY
11Joey Logano$9,800
12Martin Truex, Jr.$9,400
13A.J. Allmendinger$7,300
14Kyle Larson$8,400
15Auston Dillon$8,100

11. Joey Logano ($9,800) – This is one of those guys that you don’t want to let hang around. There are only four races left, and he can easily go on a big run. Logano didn’t have the car in the spring Martinsville race, but last fall, Team Penske finished second and third in fast laps. (3.9 fppk)

12. Martin Truex, Jr. ($9,400) – Other than last week, this has been a great year for Truex. Martinsville is not a great track for him. He has one top-10 DFS finish in the last five Martinsville races, and that was the 10th-best score. (5.6 fppk)

13. A.J. Allmendinger ($7,300) – This isn’t a road course, but the tight, flat corners are similar. Martinsville requires precise repetition, just like a road course. The Dinger has finished 11th or better in four of the last five Martinsville races. (4.0 fppk)

14. Kyle Larson ($8,400) – Remember when his salary was nearly $10,000? This is the most erratic salary in DFS. Buy low. Larson finished third in the spring race. (4.1 fppk)

15. Austin Dillon ($8,100) – His average starting position at Martinsville is 27th and his average finish is 18th. At his price, that’s still not enough. However, he did finish fourth in the spring. That’s more than enough. (3.9 fppk)


RANKDRIVERSALARY
16Ryan Newman$7,800
17Jamie McMurray$7,900
18Ryan Blaney$7,500
19Clint Bowyer$7,700
20Chase Elliott$8,600

16. Ryan Newman ($7,800) – At short tracks this season, Newman is averaging a 19th-place finish. That number is dragged down by a tire issue to start the season at Phoenix (39th). Newman has top-10 finishes in three of the last five Martinsville races. (3.6 fppk)

17. Jamie McMurray ($7,900) – If you drop McMurray’s worst short-track race (blown engine at Dover), he’s averaging a 14th-place finish this season at short tracks. His average finish over the last fourth Martinsville races is 13th. (3.8 fppk)

18. Ryan Blaney ($7,500) – Surprisingly, the rookie has six top-20s at short tracks this season. One of those top 20s came at Martinsville. Blaney drives the adjunct Penske car, and Penske has been great at Martinsville over the last two years. (3.3 fppk)

19. Clint Bowyer ($7,700) – The real question is: How’d he do in the spring with his small team car? Bowyer raced from 30th to 25th. Remember the spring race had 10 fewer cautions than normal. If we see the typical amount of spin outs, Bowyer can finish inside the top 20. (4.1 fppk)

20. Chase Elliott ($8,600) – The price tag is a little steep for a driver that has very little experience at Martinsville. Elliot has only two spins at Martinsville and they weren’t that great (20th and 38th). The bright side is that he will be low-owned. (4.1 fppk)

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.