Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.

(fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary. The typical median fppk for a 2016 race was in the 3s. Plate tracks tend to be lower and short tracks tend to run higher due to the amount of laps.)

RankDriverSalary
1Carl Edwards$9,700
2Kyle Busch$10,600
3Kevin Harvick$10,400
4Joey Logano$10,000
5Matt Kenseth$9,200

1. Carl Edwards ($9,700) – Not only did he win the Spring Bristol race, but he scored 157.5 fantasy points. That’s what happens at short tracks. In 4 of 6 short track races this season, Edwards has scored over 65 fantasy points. (4.7 fppk)

2. Kyle Busch ($10,600) – It looked like Bristol was going to name a grandstand after Kyle Busch someday, then his run came to an end. The progressive banking was removed and the racing line changed. After the Spring race, Bristol ownership doctored the track to make it race similar to the days of Rowdy’s domination. (5.1 fppk)

3. Kevin Harvick ($10,400) – Bristol is a 500 lap race. There are 250 fast lap points up for grab. It makes sense to pick the driver with the 3rd most fast laps in 2016 (14.2%). Harvick has scored over 50 fantasy points in each of the last 4 Bristol races. (6.1 fppk)

4. Joey Logano ($10,000) – Since Memorial Day, Logano has scored 8 top 10s in 10 races. Since joining Team Penske, Logano has 4 top 10s in 7 Bristol races. In his two Bristol wins, he scored 122 points and 86 points. (3.7 fppk)

5. Matt Kenseth ($9,200) – In 7 of the last 10 Bristol races, Kenseth has a driver rating over 100. Two of the times that he didn’t hit 100, he still led laps (142 and 25 laps led). The other was a blown engine. The season started out rough, but Kenseth has top 10s in 8 of the last 12 races. (4.1 fppk)

RankDriverSalary
6Kurt Busch$9,000
7Brad Keselowski$10,200
8Jimmie Johnson$9,800
9Tony Stewart$8,300
10Kyle Larson$8,500

6. Kurt Busch ($9,000) – You don’t get credit for a top 10 when you finish eleventh at Watkins Glen. That being said, the Kurt Busch storyline has not changed. He finishes near the front, but he does not dominate. That’s not always the case. In the Spring Bristol race, Kurt had the second highest fantasy score (82 pts). (4.4 fppk)

7. Brad Keselowski ($10,200) – With Bristol, it’s hard to find a driver that always does well. It’s a fast half mile track cluttered with stock cars. BK has won twice and he’s finished 30th or worse 3 times. In the last 4 short track races, BK is averaging a 9th place finish. (5.0 fppk)

8. Jimmie Johnson ($9,800) – His two wins this season were strategy plays. He was not dominant in those victories, and he has not been dominant in defeat. The 48 car is struggling for the first time ever. At Bristol, Johnson has top 5 finishes in 3 of the last 4 races, but he didn’t lead a single lap during those races. (3.4 fppk)

9. Tony Stewart ($8,300) – Several cars wrecked on the last turn at Watkins Glen, and Tony Stewart ended up in the top 5. It’s not like Smoke has never benefited from a wreck on the last turn of a road course. He’s capable of another top 5, and his salary isn’t awful this week. (3.9 fppk)

10. Kyle Larson ($8,500) – Aggressive drivers wreck and that’s how Larson’s last two Bristol races have gone. He had a top 10 car, but that doesn’t matter at Bristol. If Larson doesn’t wreck, he’s a top 10 driver and a threat to win. (3.8 fppk)

RankDriverSalary
11Martin Truex Jr$9,300
12Trevor Bayne $6,200
13Ricky Stenhouse Jr$6,700
14Clint Bowyer$6,900
15Ryan Newman$7,400

11. Martin Truex, Jr. ($9,300) – The 78 car was good last year, but switching to Toyota has made this car great. Truex has run the most fast laps this season (17.1%). Before you load up, Truex struggles at Bristol. He only has 2 top 10s and an average finish of 21st at Bristol. (5.4 fppk)

12. Trevor Bayne ($6,200) – The Roush cars ran well in the Spring Bristol race. Bayne finished 5th in the crazy, wreck filled Spring race, and 15th last Fall when Roush started to turn things around. Bayne is averaging 32 fantasy points over the last 10 races (that includes a 4 pt. and 6 pt. race). (4.5 fppk)

13. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($6,700) – Bristol and Talladega are Wrecky’s best tracks. Someone forgot to tell Wrecky that these tracks are where drivers are supposed to wreck. His worst finish is 21st and his average finish is 12th at Bristol. Don’t rule out a win. (3.1 fppk)

14. Clint Bowyer ($6,900) – He will not have the best car at Bristol, but he’s one of the best Bristol drivers. He doesn’t have one win at Bristol, but he has one wreck at Bristol. It was in 2006. Another top 10 is possible, if chaos ensues, as it normally does. (4.2 fppk)

15. Ryan Newman ($7,400) – Bristol is chaotic. Everyone wrecks. Newman wrecks, well wrecked. In the last 15 Bristol races, Newman has just one wreck. As always, he’s a great cash play, and a GPP possibility, if he qualifies in the teens or worse. (3.9 fppk)

RankDriverSalary
16Jamie McMurray$7,600
17Denny Hamlin$9,500
18Paul Menard$6,800
19Kasey Kahne$7,900
20Ryan Blaney$7,800

16. Jamie McMurray ($7,600) – It’s not exciting to target drivers that do not wreck, but this is Bristol. Jame Mac has lived a charmed life at Bristol. He’s wrecked just twice in the last 15 races. He’ll play it safe this weekend and look to protect his spot in the playoffs. (4.0 fppk)

17. Denny Hamlin ($9,500) – Wins are wins, but if you’re sizing up Hamlin’s championship chances, they’re not looking good. Hamlin’s two wins were at a plate track and a road course. In his defense, Hamlin’s 4 race top 10 streak is tied for the longest in NASCAR at the moment. (3.2 fppk)

18. Paul Menard ($6,800) – His RCR teammates may be better drivers at Bristol, but he’s significantly cheaper. He’s avoided major damage at Bristol over most of his career (30th or worse in only 2 of 18 races), and he has top 10s in 5 of the last 10 Bristol races. I probably should have led with the top 10s. (3.1 fppk)

19. Kasey Kahne ($7,900) – In 16 races, Kahne has scored over 25 fantasy points. He’s an underrated cash play. He’s an underrated in GPP play, as well. Kahne never crushes the scoreboard, so he goes under owned. With low ownership, Kahne’s 40 points are enough in GPPs. (3.4 fppk)

20. Ryan Blaney ($7,800) – The future of Bristol may be Ryan Blaney. The rookie has Bristol wins in the Truck and Xfinity Series. He finished 11th in the Spring Bristol race. (3.5 fppk)


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.