Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.

(fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary. The typical median fppk for a 2016 race was in the 3s. Plate tracks tend to be lower and short tracks tend to run higher due to the amount of laps.)

RANKDRIVERSALARY
1Jimmie Johnson$10,800
2Kevin Harvick$10,900
3Martin Truex, Jr.$10,700
4Kyle Busch$10,200
5Matt Kenseth$9,800

1. Jimmie Johnson ($10,800) – Statistically, the best Martinsville driver is Jimmie Johnson. He won at Martinsville last week. The best Texas driver is Jimmie Johnson. He’s won five of the last eight Texas races and has eight top 5s in the last 10 Texas races. (4.2 fppk)

2. Kevin Harvick ($10,900) – Harvick was unfortunate at Chicago and Charlotte, but he bounced back with a win and 94 fantasy points at Kansas. He has topped 80 fantasy points five times at intermediate tracks this season. (5.7 fppk)

3. Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,700) – There’s no argument. Truex has been the best intermediate track driver this season. The Charlotte day race result is a little worrisome, but Kansas was riddled with tough mechanical issues. Truex is averaging 80 points at 1.5-mile tracks. (5.7 fppk)

4. Kyle Busch ($10,200) – Winning the spring Texas race is not his best stat at this intermediate track. He has four consecutive top 5s at Texas (six top 5s in the last seven races). All four JGR cars are still in the playoffs because they’ve been good at 1.5-mile tracks. (4.9 fppk)

5. Matt Kenseth ($9,800) – The spotlight may not shine on Kenseth, but he’s been very good at intermediate tracks. After some early season woes, he’s gone on to finish 11th or better in the last eight intermediate track races. It’s not just finishing points. Kenseth led 116 laps at Kansas. (4.3 fppk)


RANKDRIVERSALARY
6Joey Lagano$9,400
7Brad Keselowski$9,600
8Carl Edwards$8,900
9Denny Hamlin$8,800
10Kyle Larson$9,100

6. Joey Logano ($9,400) – Since joining Team Penske, Logano has five top-5 finishes in seven Texas races. In the last four intermediate track races this season, Logano has three top-5 finishes. (3.9 fppk)

7. Brad Keselowski ($9,600) – The Texas fall race is a day race. It’s not the same as the spring Texas race. In the last four fall Texas races, BK has finished second, third, sixth, and second. In the 10 intermediate track races this season, BK has eight top 10s and two wins. (4.6 fppk)

8. Carl Edwards ($8,900) – For most of the season, Edwards has been above average at intermediate tracks, but not anything special. In the last intermediate track race, Edwards finished second and scored the second-most fantasy points. He’s in a must-win situation this weekend. (4.1 fppk)

9. Denny Hamlin ($8,800) – The most points Hamlin has scored at an intermediate track this season is 55 fantasy points, and his average is 25 points. He comes in at under $9,000 for a reason. He may snag a top-10, but I’m not expecting a lot of fantasy points. (3.9 fppk)


RANKDRIVERSALARY
11Chase Elliott$9,200
12Kurt Busch$8,600
13Austin Dillon$7,900
14Ryan Newman$7,800
15Jamie McMurray$8,100

10. Kyle Larson ($9,100) – In the Charlotte day race, Kyle Larson finished fifth after starting 25th. Typically, a race track during the day has less grip; it’s slick. That’s the type of challenge Kyle Larson likes. (4.1 fppk)

11. Chase Elliott ($9,200) – At Kansas, Elliott ran 23 fast laps. At Charlotte, he ran 70 fast laps. At Chicago, he ran 30 fast laps. This car is fast and can stuff the stat sheet. (4.0 fppk)

12. Kurt Busch ($8,600) – Adapt or bust. Kurt started the season with six consecutive top 10s at intermediate tracks. He has just one top 10 in the last four intermediate track races. The other teams has taken a step forward, and Kurt’s team is still in the same spot. (4.0 fppk)

13. Austin Dillon ($7,900) – There were rare massive pileup wrecks at Charlotte and Texas this year. They were both caused by Austin Dillon. It’s just a coincidence. If you throw out the Charlotte wreck, Dillon is averaging an 11th-place finish at 1.5-mile tracks. (4.0 fppk)

14. Ryan Newman ($7,800) – At Atlanta, Newman’s average running position was ninth, but he wrecked with a couple laps remaining. Since then, his worst finish at an intermediate track is 19th and his average finish is 10th. (3.8 fppk)

15. Jamie McMurray ($8,100) – In the last five Texas races, Jamie Mac has three top 10s. Before he wrecked at Kansas, McMurray had a streak of four top 15s at intermediate track races. (3.8 fppk)


RANKDRIVERSALARY
16Ryan Blaney$7,500
17Danica Patrick$6,400
18Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.$7,300
19Alex Bowman$7,400
20Aric Almirola$6,900

16. Ryan Blaney ($7,500) – If you had to guess how Blaney’s 1.5-mile track races have gone, then you’d probably say half of them have been good. You would be right. Half of them are top 15s (three top 10s). (3.3 fppk)

17. Danica Patrick ($6,400) – Charlotte is identical to Texas. The October Charlotte race was delayed and it occurred during the day. A lot of the setups and adjustments that worked in Charlotte will work this weekend. Danica finished 11th in that race. (4.2 fppk)

18. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7,300) – The season started out right with a 10th-place finish at Atlanta and finishes of 16th or better in five consecutive intermediate track races. He wrecked at Kentucky, but he rebounded. He has three top 20s in his last four intermediate track races. (3.5 fppk)

19. Alex Bowman ($7,400) – That’s a low price for the 88 car. Hendrick has the best intermediate track setup right now. If Bowman starts outside of the top 10, then I think he’s in play. (1.7 fppk)

20. Aric Almirola ($6,900) – When Almirola doesn’t wreck at intermediate tracks, he averages a 20th-place finish. If Almirola starts from the mid 20s back, then I think he’s a great play at his salary. (3.5 fppk)

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.