Chase Elliott

Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on the highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.

(fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary.)

Set your lineups here: NAS $350K Piston [$100K to 1st]

1. Chase Elliott ($10,100) – If it wasn’t for a broken valve stem, Elliot would have won at Las Vegas and scored over 100 fantasy points. Atlanta has a rougher service, but it’s still a 1.5 mile intermediate track race, and Elliott had a pretty good car in the last one of those races. (5.7 fppk)

2. Alex Bowman ($9,800) – The #88 car was the fastest car at the end of the Las Vegas race. The next week it was the fastest car at Fontana. Why would that change this weekend? (4.9 fppk)

3. Ryan Blaney ($9,200) – The trend of bad luck finishes for Blaney is nothing new. Last year at Atlanta, Blaney had the lead going into the final green flag stop, but that’s when everything went wrong. A bad stop, a poorly timed caution, and then a loose wheel ruined Blaney’s day. (3.9 fppk)

4. Joey Logano ($11,100) – Luck has been on Logano’s side, but he put himself in position to get lucky at Phoenix and Las Vegas. The exact opposite happened at Atlanta last year. Logano went from the likely race winner to a 23rd place finish because of a loose wheel. (4.2 fppk)

5. Kevin Harvick ($11,500) – Atlanta was always considered one of Harvick’s best tracks. No other driver can match his ability to hug the bottom line. This skill no longer separates Harvick from the field in the high downforce package, but on long runs, it still matters. (5.2 fppk)

6. Kyle Busch ($11,900) – It’s hard to read anything into Kyle Busch’s 6th place finish in the 2019 Atlanta race. He started the race in the back in a backup car with no laps on it in the first race ever in the high downforce package. Despite that disadvantage, he managed to score the fifth most fast lap points. (2.9 fppk)

7. Brad Keselowski ($10,800)DFS NASCAR is much more than just looking at stats. Keselowski won the 2019 Atlanta race, but was he really that good? During the final green flag pit stops, a caution trapped the entire field a lap down. By luck, Keselowski pitted early and earned the lucky dog. As if that wasn’t enough luck, the competitor closest to him on the final restart had a loose wheel. (3.8 fppk)

8. Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,400) – The #19 JGR car has been excellent on long runs in the high downforce package. Last year at Atlanta, Truex ran down Brad Keselowski, but ran out of laps. An indicator of the speed is that Truex ran 38 fast laps while only leading four laps. (1.7 fppk)

9. Denny Hamlin ($9,500) – This weekend will be the third intermediate track race in the high downforce package. At Las Vegas, Hamlin started in the back and was terrible. At Fontana, Hamlin started in the back and lacked confidence in his car prerace, but he was able to race into the top 10 rather easily. (4.4 fppk)

10. Kurt Busch ($8,400) – He struggled at Las Vegas and contact on multiple restarts ruined his day. At Fontana, Busch overcame a pit road mistake and drove through traffic for a third place finish. (2.8 fppk)

11. Kyle Larson ($9,000) – In clean air, Larson was great at Atlanta last spring. He worked the high line to the tune of 62.5 hog points. The only car that matched his raw speed was Harvick. Unfortunately, a speeding penalty buried Larson in traffic and ended his chances of a win. (3.4 fppk)

12. Erik Jones ($8,200) – The JGR cars struggled in the first race in the high downforce package at Las Vegas. The team rebounded the next week and fielded top 10 cars at Fontana. Atlanta should be a continued step forward for the JGR Toyotas. (2.9 fppk)

13. Chris Buescher ($6,700) – The fromer Xfinity champ revitalized his career last season in the high downforce package. He struggled in his first three seasons in low downforce packages, so last week’s finish at Phoenix was expected. Buescher should be back on track in the high downforce package this weekend. (5.6 fppk)

14. Aric Almirola ($7,900) – In practice, Almriola will look like one of the best cars on the track. In the race, Almirola will be a 10th place driver. SHR and their drivers have not found the right balance between handling and speed in the high downforce package. (2.9 fppk)

15. William Byron ($8,600) – Atlanta is not very similar to Las Vegas, but it’s closer to Las Vegas than it is to Fontana. At Las Vegas, Byron had the 6th highest driver rating and recorded 17.5 fast laps points, all while in traffic. (2.2 fppk)

16. Matt DiBenedetto ($7,500) – So far this season, the #21 car is the same #21 Wood Brothers car. DiBenedetto has run up front a little, but so did Paul Menard. What matters is where a driver finishes in a normal race (the Las Vegas madness does not count), and DiBenedetto has finished 13th in both of the last two races. (4.7 fppk)

17. Clint Bowyer ($8,100) – As predicted, Bowyer ran well last week at Phoenix. Short tracks and the low downforce package suit Bowyer’s driving style. Intermediate tracks and the high downforce package are anathema to Bowyer. (4.4 fppk)

18. Austin Dillon ($7,800) – Phoenix did not work out well for Dillon, but Atalanta is a return to the high downforce package. RCR has made significant gains over the last season, and despite a poor start to 2019, Dillon has regained his status as a 15th place driver. (4.3 fppk)

19. Jimmie Johnson ($8,800) – His skills have declined some, but the biggest issue for Johnson is that his equipment has not been that great over the last couple years. This year the Hendrick cars have been the best on the track, and Johnson’s finishes bear that out. (3.4 fppk)

20. John Hunter Nemechek ($5,600) – He’s not called John Hunter “Nemewreck” for no reason. Going back to the 2019 Phoenix race, he’s wrecked in each of the last 6 races, and some races, multiple times. However, a lot of his wrecks are harmless and actually benefit the backmarker by keeping him on the lead lap. (5.3 fppk)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.