2019 3M Open Picks, Rankings, Sleepers, Preview

Pat Mayo and Geoff Fienberg preview the course and run through the odds while making their 2019 3M Open Picks. The guys give their fantasy golf picks, provide their one and done strategy for the event from TPC Twin Cities.

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2019 3M Open Field

Field: 156 Players | Top 70 and Ties Make the Cut
First Tee: Thursday, July 4 at 7:45 a.m. ET
Defending Champion: None

For the second consecutive week, the TOUR sticks north, simply shifting west a time zone, for another first-time event, this time in Blaine, Minnesota. A town best known for its stools. Nope, sorry, that’s Blaine, Missouri. This is just the Blaine on the outskirts of Minneapolis; not the town with a burgeoning local theater scene. Considering this tournament is brand new, at a new course for the TOUR (The Champions Tour has played TPC Twin Cities in the regular rotation since 2001), sponsored by scotch tape, and running opposite Rolex Series events in Euro for the world’s top players to get acclimated to European weather, the zones, and condition in advance of the British Open in three week, nabbing nine of the world’s Top 50 players may actually be an achievement. Brooks Koepka, Jason Day, Hideki Matsuyama, Bryson DeChambeau, Tony Finau, Patrick Reed, Keegan Bradley, Kevin Na and Phil Mickelson will all take a crack at the Arnold Palmer designed track.

Beyond the top level, there’s a lot of TOUR regulars like Charles Howell III, Lucas Glover, Rory Sabbatini, Scott Piercy, Kevin Streelman, Charley Hoffman, Adam Hadwin, JJ Spaun, Ryan Moore, Luke List, Nick Watney, Keith Mitchell, Corey Conners, Jason Dufner, Jimmy Walker, Joaquin Niemann, Daniel Berger, and like 100 more different permutations of those guys are in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.

On rookie watch, we’ll get true Battle Royale between Viktor Hovland, Matthew Wolff, Collin Morikawa, Alvaro Ortiz, Cameron Champ, KH Lee, Sungae Im, Martin Trainer, Adam Long, Wyndham Clark, Sepp Straka, Jim “I Voted For” Knous, Hank Lebioda, and Justin Suh. With only two months remain in the season, and only Long, Trainer, and Champ with wins to their credit; the Rookie of the Year race remains up for grabs. Especially since a top finish in Minnesota will result in a British Open birth. Play well here, play well at Portrush; win top rookie for the year.

2019 3M Open: Key Stats

Strokes Gained: Approach
Birdies or Better Gained
Par 5s Gained
Par 4s Gained: 450-500 Yards

Mayo’s Custom Stat POWER RANKINGS from FantasyNational.com

2019 3M Open: Course

Course: TPC Twin Cities
Par: 71
Yardage: 7,481
Greens: Bentgrass

2019 3M Open: Past Winners


2019 3M Open: Notes

The course has been lengthened over 300 yards from its appearances on the Champions Tour, and the fairways have been narrowed. Additionally, since it’s constructed around 27 bodies of water, most holes are protected down the side of the fairways by either water or trees. Only holes No. 5, 8, 13, and 15 are devoid of agua.

With so much water on the course, expect a high degree of variance on round-to-round scoring. Think of it as an easier Honda Classic.

The 2019 3M Open is the first regularly occurring event hosted in Minnesota since 1969.

Kenny Perry and Paul Goydos both set the course record the past two years on the Champions Tour by each firing a 60.

Three of the four Par 3s measure over 204 yards.

There are two Par 4s over 500 yards, with a total of five extending over 450 yards.

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (OTT + APP) leaders at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in the field this week: Danny Lee (+9.3), Josh Teater (+7.7), Patrick Reed (+6.5), Kyle Stanley (+6.1) (Stanley has withdrawn), Joaquin Niemann (+5.9).

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (OTT + APP) leaders at the Rocket Mortgage Classic (who missed the cut; just two rounds of counting data) in the field this week: Adam Svensson (+4.1), Martin Laird (+2.9), Robert Streb (+2.0), Adam Long (+1.5), Charley Hoffman (+1.4).

Dylan Fritelli was T15 in Birdies Gained on the field last week but only finished T46 overall.

RECENT FORM: Hideki Matsuyama, Kevin Streelman, Stephan Jaeger, Joaquin Niemann, Bryson DeChambeau, MacKenzie Hughes, Jason Day, Rory Sabbatini, Kevin Na, and Brooks Koepka have gained the most total strokes over their past 12 rounds per Fantasy National.

Only Matsuyama and Streelman have gained stokes T2G in more than 80% of rounds vs. the field over their past 24 rounds.

Koepka, Keegan Bradley, Shawn Stefani, Viktor Hovland, Matsuyama, Streelman, Corey Conners, Jason Dufner, Nate Lashley, and Talor Gooch (The GOOOOOCH) are the only players in the field to have gained strokes on approach vs. the field in over 70% of their rounds over the past 24 rounds.

In the Fantasy National stat “Opportunities Gained” (Greens and Fringe in Regulation under 15-feet), over the last 12 rounds, Matsuyama, Austin Cook, Brian Harman, Hovland, Cameron Tringale, Ryan Moore, Andrew Landry, Robert Garrigus, Nicholas Lindhiem, and Koepka lead the field entering the week.

Over the past 36 rounds on Bentgrass greens: Beau Hossler, Andres Romero, Si WOOOOO Kim, Martin Piller, Brendon Todd, Chesson Hadley, WHEEEEEEE Kim, Kevin Na, Ben Silverman, and Curtis Luck have the most Strokes Gained: Putting.

Over the past five weeks, in non-majors, in a minimum of three starts: Niemann, Harris English, Ted Potter, Reed, Streelman, Teater, Tringale, Sabbatini, Matsuyama, Hovland, Collin Morikawa, and Koepka haven’t missed a cut.

2019 3M Open Picks — Targets From Each Range

Bryson DeChambeau

Like the man himself, unpacking Bryson’s game at the current moment is quite… complicated. One of the best players off the tee since joining the TOUR, Bryson’s been wildly inconsistent with the big stick over the last two months. Previous to that, the driver was working wonders and the irons had abandoned him. All parts of his game simply haven’t coalesced at the same time at any point this season. Now’s when that can flip, though. Unless the 3M Open plays far more difficult than anticipated, a birdie-fest on bentgrass greens is precisely the blueprint for Bryson’s game to excel. In his five PGA victories over the last two seasons, four have come on bent, and none of those wins have been worse than a 15-under winning score. Since the final round at Memorial, Bryson’s gained strokes on approach in seven of his past nine rounds versus the field, and made more birdies than field average in five straight. Haven’t never won in the calendar year before late May (on the PGA Tour), there’s a chance another summer of Bryson kicks off in Minnesota this week.

Patrick Reed

The generally inconsistent former Masters champ has begun to develop a modicum on consistency as of late. Normally a streaky player who can win out of nowhere, Reed has quietly fixed a lot of his off the tee issues and is putting it together across in all facets of getting to the green. Fresh off his first Top 5 finish since the 2018 U.S. Open, Reed has now gained with his irons in five of his past six starts, gained off the tee in four of his past six, and found himself on the positive side of putting in three of his past four after losing in six straight tournaments. While this has been a year of struggles, despite the poor play, he’s actually only missed two of 15 cuts for the year. With everything (on paper, at least) coming together at once now is the time to pounce.

Jason Dufner

After last week’s atrocious performance with the flat stick, you’d think I’d be out on Dufner. And in all likelihood, I should be, but I won’t. The putting concerns always are always worrisome, however, the ball striking, especially at a second shot golf course, is usually on point. Even last week, when Dufner lost strokes off the tee for the first time since April, he still almost managed to gain a stroke per round on the field with his approaches. Dufner missing a series of five-foot putts to skip the weekend by a stoke, theme the breaks sometimes. In a weaker field where scores are going to be low, Dufner is exactly the type of streaky player to patch together multiple low rounds over a tournament to overcome a poor putting stretch. In his five career PGA Tour wins, he won two in spire of losing strokes putting. Seeing it once is an outlier, twice truly speaks to how hot his ball striking can be when he’s feeling it.

Corey Conners

After a pair of missed cuts, this may be the exact time to hop back on the Canadian after the shine has been lifted. He’s a pretty easy guy to figure out. He’s going to be one of the premier players in the field off the tee almost every week and that may not matter because he may chip or putt himself out of a tournament. He’s dropped strokes to the field in nine of his past 11 events on the greens, but it’s worth noting, the two times he’s been a positive putter this season, both on bentgrass. His recent run of results since winning Texas the week before the Masters has pushed him down the betting and DraftKings board to the point where taking a chance on a player with high risk cut equity is now worth the asking price due to the upside. Because he’s a polite Canadian, Conners will let you know pretty early what kind of week it’s going to be for him. If he’s not making birdies out of the gate, you probably don’t need to check back in again.

Other notable names appearing near the top of stat models and the win simulator at FantasyNational.com: Brooks Koepka, Hideki Matsuyama, Cameron Tringale, Kevin Streelman, Max Homa, Viktor Hovland, Sung Kang, JJ Spaun

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Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. (Subscribe for video or audio). Mayo (@ThePME) won the 2019 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and Podcast of the Year awards, along with the Fantasy Sports Trade Association Best Video award, and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2019 (Best Podcast, Best Video, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year). His 17 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are third-most all-time. Mayo has been recognized across multiple sports (Football, Baseball & Golf), mediums (Video, Writing & Podcasting), genre (Humor), and game formats (Daily Fantasy and Traditions Season Long). Beyond sports, Mayo covers everything from entertainment to pop culture to politics. If you have a fantasy question, general inquiry or snarky comment, ship it to Mayo at ThePatMayoExperience@gmail.com and the best will be addressed on the show.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ThePME) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.