Matt Johnson $9400
Having to choose between Matt Johnson and Brandon Doughty for this spot was merely impossible. I went with Johnson because Bowling Green has a team total of 46.5, while Western Kentucky has a total of 38.5. They are 1 and 2 in passing yards in the FBS right now and are both in great spots to succeed this week. There’s also a guy named Seth Russell sitting right there with them who has possibly the best matchup in all of college football, but might only get to play in one half on Saturday.
Baker Mayfield $8000
The Texas defense has just been miserable this year. They rank 119 out of 128 in passing yards per game allowed with 296.6. OU has a team total of 38.5, which bodes well for Mayfield and their suddenly pass-heavy offense. It’s also the Red River Shootout, which means Bob Stoops will be looking to show no mercy against their rival school.
Leonard Fournette $9900
Fournette has only played in 4 games this year. In those 4 games he’s totaled 864 yards and 11 touchdowns. He’s been under 40 fantasy points one time this season, and that was against Mississippi State, the best defense he’s seen so far. South Carolina has plenty of holes defensively and Fournette should have no problem destroying his competition once again this week.
CJ Prosise $7600
Prosise is quietly having an excellent football season. He’s averaging 130 rushing yards per game, and that’s with a dud of a rushing performance of 50 yards last week, which he made up for by tallying 100 yards receiving. He’s only been under 25 fantasy points one time this year, and that was the first game of the season. Notre Dame has a team total of 35 in this very nice matchup with Navy, who is giving up just under 150 rushing yards per game.
Roger Lewis $7800
In all actuality, this spot belongs to Corey Coleman, but it’s hard to recommend a guy who will only play one half of football, even if he has the ability to put up huge numbers in a short amount of time. That being said, I like Roger Lewis a lot this week against UMass, a defense that is colossally bad against the run, but hasn’t really been tested that much through the air because they are constantly trailing. BGSU has a 46.5 total for a reason, Roger Lewis is a big part of that reason.
Tajae Sharpe $7200
People are going to fade Tajae and they’re going to regret it. Price-sensitive, I like Sharpe slightly more than I like Lewis. I think that $600 can go a long way in this slate, and I’d project them to have similar fantasy totals at the end of the day. Sharpe is going to see something around 15 targets agaisnt a Bowling Green defense that is allowing 295 yards per game through the air. Nobody in the BGSU secondary is talented/quick enough to stay with Sharpe, and we could easily see another 10+ reception day out of him.
CJ Beathard $5700
There are still people that think Illinois has a good defense, and that befuddles me. Yeah, they held a high-octane Nebraska offense in check last week, but that game was being played with 25 mph winds and Tommy Armstrong just couldn’t get it going. This week, the Illini get an Iowa offense that isn’t great, but they’re effective enough to beat up on a defense like Illinois. For only $5700, you don’t need Beathard to set the world on fire, you’re simply asking him to throw for 250 and 2 touchdowns, which is pretty much what I would project him to do. This is the same team that allowed Brent Stockstill of Middle Tennessee to throw for 330 and 3 TD’s two weeks ago.
Deshone Kizer $6200
I mentioned earlier that Notre Dame has a solid team total and a matchup with a mediocre run defense. Both of those things bode well for Kizer this week. Navy has only been tested by a good passing game one time and they held East Carolina to 21 points. I think that this Notre Dame offense is much more effective than the ECU offense, partially due to the stud receiver that Kizer can rely on in Will Fuller. Again, we don’t need Kizer to go completely nuts, but he has a very safe floor in this game and a ton of upside with his running ability and the weapons around him.
Deandre Washington $5200
Texas Tech has a team total of 43, and while they’re a pass-first team, Deandre Washington is always a threat to score, as he displayed against TCU when he scored 4 touchdowns. This isn’t me guaranteeing that he scores, just simply stating that he can find the end zone with the best of them. Last year, Iowa State was one of the worst run defenses in the entire country. This year, they look to be improved, but still not great. If offenses like Iowa and Toledo can score 30+ points, I can’t wait to see what TTU does.
Terence Williams $4400
I was a week early on the Terence Williams train last week because Texas Tech kept it close longer than I expected them to. Kansas has no chance of doing the same. In the two games that Baylor got out to a huge, early lead, Williams came in and received 14 and 19 carries and was over 110 yards in both games. I fully expect the Baylor starters to be out of the game come half time, leaving an entire half, plus the few touches he’ll get in the first half to decimate the pathetic KU defense, which he will do.
Allen Lazard $5400
Lazard is one of the most talented receiver in the Big 12, and Texas Tech is quite possibly the best matchup possible for receivers. The big play has yet to come for Lazard, but you can count on it coming sooner rather than later. He’s caught at least 4 passes in each game this year, but his longest reception is 20 yards. He’s too big, too talented, and too fast for that to continue and it could very easily happen against Texas Tech, a team that is allowing 304 pass yards per game.
Massachusetts vs Bowling Green (-13.5) O/U 79
I already mentioned most of the players that I really like in this game. Matt Johnson and Roger Lewis have been one of the deadliest combiations in all of college football this year, and that should continue this week. Other guys like Ronnie Moore and Ryan Burbrink are also solid GPP plays, but Roger Lewis is the only one I would trust for cash games, especially since Moore and Burbrink’s prices are finally where they should be. UMass QB Blake Frohnapfel is also in play, as he should be forced to throw the ball close to 50 times to keep up with that high powered BGSU offense. He’s a little bit ore expensive than I’d like him to be, but he’s still in play due to the matchup and target volume alone. I mentioned it earlier, Tajae Sharpe is my favorite price-sensitive WR play of this slate. Neither team really relies on a running back to do much, but Jamal Wilson has scored a couple touchdowns for UMass this year and makes for a solid punt play, as he’s also involved in the passing attack.
Iowa State vs Texas Tech (-12) O/U 74
Texas Tech is going to end up in this column pretty much every single week due to how good their offense is and how pathetic their defense is. Iowa State is far from being an elite offense, but they have the weapons to get the job done, especially against bad defenses. Sam B. Richardson is a solid GPP play, but his price has crept up a bit too high for me to want to play him in cash games as he has a very limited ceiling. Mike Warren went off on Kansas last week for 175 yards and 2 touchdowns and is not $6000, which is a bit more than I’m willing to pay for him. Allen Lazard and D’Vario Montgomery are both incredibly talented receivers and are both in play at their respective prices. On the TTU side of things, we have Patick Mahomes, who has quietly been one of the best fantasy quarterbacks of the season and is “only” $8400, which makes him a great play at that price. I’ve already talked about Deandre Washington, so you know my feelings on him. Jakeem Grant is one of the best fantasy receivers in the country and his price is down after a poor performance against Baylor last week. Devin Lauderdale left last week’s game with a leg injury and it’s not looking like he’s going to play. Ian Sadler is also out for the foreseeable future. If Lauderdale sits, Tony Brown and Reginald Davis both become interesting tournament options, with Brown being the preferred option.
Underowned QB/WR Pair
Baker Mayfield/Sterling Shepard – Oklahoma
This isn’t really anything under the radar, I just think people will overlook the Oklahoma players this week. Texas’ defense is miserably bad, possibly the worst in the Big12 outside of Kansas, and Baker Mayfield has been on a tear this year. He’s been responsible for at least 3 touchdowns in every game this year, and 4 in all but last week’s game against WVU. Texas is definitely not going to be the team to snap this streak.
Seth Russell $9300
Kansas is quite possibly the worst team in the FBS. Baylor is absolutely the best offense in the FBS. These two things do not bode well for fantasy players with incredibly high salaries. I’ve said it a couple times already, but I really don’t think the Baylor starters play at all in the second half. Russell very well could throw for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns in the first half, but that’s only 27 fantasy points, which isn’t enough to justify paying that steep tag for Russell.
Depth Chart News
Leonte Carroo – WR Rutgers
Carro’s assault charges have been dropped and he was reinstated to the team earlier this week but he won’t be any sort of fantasy option this week as Rutgers hosts Michigan State.
Keevan Lucas – WR Tulsa
This doesn’t have any impact on fantasy this week, but it just makes me really sad so I have to mention it. Keevan Lucas was lost for the season on Saturday due to a torn patellar tendon. Keyarris Garrett and Josh Atkinson will now receive ALL of the targets and will be solid fantasy options whenever available.
D’haquille Williams – WR Auburn
Duke Williams was dismissed from the team earlier this week. That leaves Ricardo Louis as the lone talented receiver for Auburn. However, every quarterback on the Auburn roster is terrible, so it’s tough to ever play anybody from that offense.