In the CFB game breakdown, Russell Clay looks at and evaluates the ten most DFS-friendly matchups for the Saturday slate.

Baylor vs Kansas

O/U: 78.5
Line: +45 Kansas

Much like every week, regardless of format, Seth Russell and Corey Coleman need to be involved in your tournament lineups, at least in some capacity. Even with big blowout potential, They’ve proven to be a combination that will get 80-100 points together regardless of the atmosphere or opponent.

Shock Linwood is a nice hedge on the duo I mentioned above. There’s a huge amount of production to go around in this Baylor offense, so even with Coleman having three or more touchdowns in each of the last three games, Linewood has found himself averaging 32 DK points per game that span.

Jay Lee and KD Cannon are lower-end hedging options, and players I would probably avoid in cash games. In tournaments, however, they set up to be really cheap pieces of a really strong offense, I trust Lee more, but both have big potential, and have major opportunity to get a few long touchdowns receptions.

Ke’Aun Kinner was a dud last week against a tough Iowa State defense, and he should be able to rebound this week. He’s the most talented player offensively for Kansas, and he’s shown in previous weeks that he can have multiple touchdown and 100 yard rushing performances. If he were more expensive I wouldn’t be touching him, but he’s the cheapest feature back on the early slate.


Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee State

O/U: 69
Line: -8.5 Western Kentucky

Another Saturday, another Brandon Doughty shootout game. With a projected team total of 39, Expect the usual cast of characters to get their seasonal averages. Of course, I’m speaking about Jared Dangerfield, Taywan Taylor, Tyler Higbee and D’Andre Ferby. Dangerfield has finally looked like his old self the past few games, after battling injuries early in the season, he has a very safe floor for cash games.

Ed’Marques Batties proved last week against Vanderbilt that his production to that point in the season was no fluke. Batties has three games of 35 DK points or more already this year, and after last week, has solidified himself has one of the safer high end fantasy receivers in the country. He’s a great play in all formats.


Massachusetts vs Bowling Green

O/U: 79
Line: -14 Bowling Green

The most fantasy points of the weekend will come from this game, book it. Both of these defenses have proven to be terrible. Massachusetts comes in at 113th in yards allowed per game, Bowling Green is 115th. Massachusetts is allowing 37.3 points per game, Bowling Green is alloing 36. There’s a small chance Bowling Green runs away with it at home, but Umass has a much improved offense, with the firepower to stay with him.

Blake Frohnapfel and Tajae Sharpe are a really nice stacking option this week, especially for tournaments. They have more upside than their price would lead you to believe. Sharpe has had one game under 28 DK points this year, and that was against Notre Dame.

Marken Michel has emerged as a great option to team up with the Frohnapfel/Sharpe duo, or potentially be a nice hedging option off of Sharpe. Michel has had four or more receptions in each of the last four games.

Rodney Mills is a swing for the fences in tournaments. He returned to practice this week, and is reportedly going to play this week. In the last game Mills played this year, he had five receptions for 104 receiving yards and two touchdowns against a tough Temple defense.


Iowa State vs Texas Tech

O/U: 73.5
Line: -10 Texas Tech

Iowa State has proven itself to be a stingy defense, but they’re dealing with a completely different animal this week. Patrick Mahomes and the up-tempo Texas Tech offense is primed and ready to continue their offensive journey of averaging 50 points per contest.

With Devin Lauderdale sidelined, the receiving responsibilities with get divvied up between Jakeem Grant, Reginald Davis and Zach Austin. I like all of them at their price, but would probably only play Grant if I was stacking him with Mahomes. Davis and Austin are great tournament options.

Mike Warren has really emerged the last two weeks, rushing for 301 yards. He’s a great value in all formats this week, he’s a rare combination of talent, opportunity, price and matchup. Warren is a darkhorse for a top 3 running back performance in this slate.

S.B. Richardson has yet to top 269 passing yards, and while I’m very high on the talent of D’Vario Montgomery and Allen Lazard, the passing game is spread around too much to trust any of these options.

DeAndre Washington is a tournament option only, he’s been far too inconsistent to trust in a cash game.


Oklahoma vs Texas

O/U: 59.5
Line: +16.5 Texas

Baker Mayfield has got the Oklahoma offense rolling. They’re averaging 42 points per game, and are tenth in the nation in passing yards per game. Unfortunately for Semaje Perine, now that the offense is rolling, his days as a workhorse running back are over. He still has a nice role, but has been continually been overpriced in the first six weeks of the season. Joe Mixon has continued to steal touches from Perine, and with price considered, is arguably a better play.

Much like Perine, Sterling Shepard’s production has suffered with Mayfield and some of the role players emerging. He’s still clearly the top receiving option in the passing game, but I feel much more comfortable with Dede Westbrook and Durron Neal at their prices.

Mark Andrews is one of my favorite values of the week. He already has three receiving touchdowns this year, and is essentially a minimum-priced player. since I don’t feel comfortable stacking with Shepard, Andrews has strong appeal in tournaments.


Arizona vs Oregon State

O/U: 62.5
Line: -10.5 Arizona

Anu Solomon is finally back, and this should open things up for Nick Wilson, who’s price has dropped considerably because of the two bad games where Solomon had been hurt. Wilson is still an elite fantasy option, and with a team Total of 37, I expect him to be a top five, if not top three running back in this slate.

Cayleb Jones has seen his price decrease considerably as well, but I’m not touching him until I see more consistency. Even when Solomon was healthy, Jones had yet to emerge has the target hog receiver we expected heading into the year. Johnny Jackson is an interesting tournament play at his price. He’s coming off a five catch, 84 yards and one touchdown performance against a tough Stanford defense.

Seth Collins and the Oregon State offense has had some really tough matchups to begin the season. It’s shouldn’t be surprising the offense struggled against Michigan and Stanford, so I’m optimistic things will get better. I like the price and floor Collins presents, his rushing ability has already netted him three 20 DK point performances in four games, even though he’s only thrown over 150 yards once. Don’t be afraid to use Collins in cash games.

While it’s tough to trust anyone in that pass game, Jordan Villamin has somehow found his way to (relatively speaking) consistent DK points. He’s a unique tournament option, and will be low owned.


Utah State vs Fresno State

O/U: 47
Line: +11 Fresno State

This game presents my top play of the week, Kent Myers. He’s priced as one of the cheapest starting quarterbacks and he has a matchup against a team that can’t move the ball on offense. 11 points favorites on the road is all you need to know.

Marteze Waller is a talented player, but has yet to crack 4.0 yards per carry in a game this year because the passing game has been so terrible. I would avoid everyone on this Fresno State offense.

Hunter Sharp is an nice stacking option with Myers, those two together can open up enough cap to combine them with another, more expensive QB/WR stack.


TCU vs Kansas State

O/U: 63
Line: +10 Kansas State

If we were playing chess, Trevone Boykin would be the Queen of the DFS chess board. If he isn’t the top quarterback of the evening slate, it would be a major upset. Boykin has gone over 41 DK points in each of his last three games, and has rewarded anyone who stacked him with any of his receiving options.

In those same three games, Doctson has averaged 45.9 DK points. If you’re playing Boykin, I strongly recommend stacking with Doctson, even if it is expensive. Kavonte Turpin burst onto the scene last week with a six reception, 138 yard and four touchdown performance. His price has gone up, but with Kolby Listenbee’s status in question again this week, Turbin is going to be a main target in the pass game again.

Aaron Green has been hit or miss this year. In his five games, he has three games under 15 DK points, and two over 34. He’s a nice hedging option in tournaments, but a ‘do not touch’ in cash. No reason to take the risk.


%{color:#FF6C00}*Michigan State vs Rutgers*5

O/U: 54
Line: +13.5 Rutgers

After two down weeks, the price for Michigan State skill position players has gone down considerably, and with the box scores looking extremely weak, this is a time to strike where others aren’t willing to go.

I’m still staying away from Connor Cook, he’s shown throughout his career that he’s much better at being an NFL prospect than relevant college fantasy football asset. Even in his four touchdown game, he only scored 25 DK points. It’s reasonable to think that’s around his ceiling, and if that’s the case, he simply isn’t worth playing in any format.

Aaron Burbridge, however, is a completely different story. Burbridge started off the season with a bang, going over 18 DK points in all of his first three games, capping it off with a 44.6 performance. The last two weeks have had weird yardage and touchdown distribution for Michigan State, which you can expect in a slower paced offense like they run. This hurt Burbridge, as they simply didn’t end up needing him, but that shouldn’t hurt our perception of him that much. His price has dropped $1,900 since week four, he is a must play at that price.

LJ Scott and Madre London will be splitting carries on Saturday. There will be rushing yards and touchdowns to be had, so sprinkling them into your tournament lineups is a sound strategy.

Leonte Carroo has been reinstated, and is a shaky tournament play. He’s a nice value, and has proven to be a consistent big play threat, but, I’d play him cautiously this week. There will be better spots, especially if he doesn’t put up many yards against a tough Michigan State defense.


Colorado vs Arizona State

O/U: 56
Line: -15 Arizona State

Demario Richard is priced sixth for running backs in the late slate, but based on production, I think he’s the favorite to end the night first. He’s caught at least four receptions in three of Arizona State’s five games this year, including an eight catch performance last week. He’s had 16 or more touches in every game, and has shown a 47.5 DK point ceiling in week 3. Mike Bercovici has only thrown for over 300 yards once this year(The game where Richard had 151 receiving yards) and in three games against tough competition( UCLA, USC and Texas A&M) he threw three touchdowns total. Richard is the feature, workhorse back in the offense, and the fantasy points filter through him.

For all the reasons I like Richard, I don’t like the passing game. Gary Chambers and Tim White make for interesting tournament plays, but I wouldn’t trust them as anything more than that.