In the CFB Game Breakdown, I’ll look at and evaluate the ten most DFS-friendly matchups for the Saturday slates.
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Kansas vs TCU
Line: TCU – 45
Trevone Boykin ($10,100) has scored over 40 DraftKings points in each of his last seven games. Barring an injury, he should be able to make it eight straight this weekend. Kansas has lost all nine of their games this year, and have given up over 50 in five of those. This is one of the weakest defenses in college football, and there’s a very strong chance TCU will have their starters pulled by the fourth quarter. While that isn’t good news, there will be plenty of explosive plays and points in the first three quarters.
Josh Doctson ($8,400) is clearly an elite option at receiver when healthy, but this week is a little different. Doctson has a wrist injury that took him out of last week’s game, and it was announced late in the week that he was even going to play. Again, elite option when healthy, solid tournament play, but there’s safer options that are much cheaper for this week.
Kolby Listenbee ($5,800) has scored a touchdown in four of his last five games, and with the injury news surrounding Doctson, there’s always a chance they could funnel more production than usual to the secondary options in the passing game. Aaron Green ($6,900) is volatile play at his price, but with two games over 34 DraftKings points under his belt already, the upside is there for tournaments.
North Carolina State vs Florida State
Line: Florida State -10
In a better matchup Everett Golson ($5,700) would be an intriguing punt play, but North Carolina State has only allowed over 28 points once this season, and it was to Clemson.
Dalvin Cook ($8,900) provides immense potential and has proven to be matchup-proof so far in 2015. Cook has gone over 160 total yards in five games already this year, and that includes three games where he went over 40 DraftKings points. Much like Leonard Fournette, unless they’re facing Alabama, they’ll almost assuredly hit or provide positive value to your lineups.
Travis Rudolph ($4,500) had a nice two game stretch, but now that Golson is back, It’s time to temper expectations. They rotated in multiple receivers and spread the ball quite a bit early in the season. Rudolph is an ok tournament option, but his price would force him to score a touchdown or be a main target in the offense, which is far from a guarantee.
Kansas State vs Texas Tech
Line: Texas Tech -5.5
Joe Hubener ($6,500) and Charles Jones ($4,100) are two of the best plays of the weekend as they face off against the second worst run defense in the nation. Texas Tech is allowing 273 rushing yards per game, and have allowed 3.3 rushing touchdowns per game. Vegas believes that Kansas State is going to score the ball, as they’ve given them an implied team total of 33, even on the road. Both of these players are great values on there own, but I also love the idea of stacking their production together. You get a ton of value and a much better chance at nailing down all of the touchdowns.
Patrick Mahomes ($8,500) is averaging 42.4 Draftkings points per game at home this year, and that’s what I envision happening after seeing their implied team total of 39. Deandre Washington ($6,500) has been pretty consistent regardless of the splits you look at, he can be considered a safe cash game play. Jakeem Grant ($6,500) has proven to be the only trustworthy receiving option in the offense. I like him as a stacking option with Mahomes.
Oklahoma State vs Iowa State
Line: Oklahoma State -14
I picked this game so I could have a moment to talk about Oklahoma State wide receiver James Washington ($5,700). Washington has 484 receiving yards and six touchdowns in the last three week. He’s scored over 25 DraftKings points in those weeks, and has done so in four of his last five games as well. Oklahoma State has spread the ball around quite a bit in recent years and even early on this season, but it appears they finally have their top target in the offense. At a still very reasonable price, he’s worth putting in your lineups in any format.
Mike Warren ($5,600) is once again at a very friendly price with the volume he’s getting considered. Warren has gotten 20 or more touches in seven straight games. He is the focal point of the offense, and while they struggled last week on the road against Oklahoma, this is a different situation. It’s not a perfect matchup, as Oklahoma State has a relatively strong defense, but he’s a great tournament option with 200 yard upside.
Wake Forest vs Notre Dame
Line: Notre Dame -27
We’ll have to wait and see on the status of C.J. Prosise ($7,500) and his neck injury. If he does play he has the high ceiling you look for at a reasonable cost. If he doesn’t play, Josh Adams ($5,900) is a huge value that should basically be in all your lineups. In sub duty last week they gave Adams 20 carries and he responded by rushing for 147 yards. Notre Dame faces a much weaker opponent this week and should be in control from the get-go.
DeShone Kizer ($8,300) Is sadly priced correctly, which makes him a lot tougher to fit into lineups. I do think he has a really nice floor, so he’s not out of the question in cash games. If you do go that route, stacking Kizer with Will Fuller ($7,100) is imperative. Fuller has caught a touchdown in all but one game this year, and this is a week where he’s very likely to continue on that trend. Chris Brown ($3,600) is an intriguing punt play at the wide receiver position. He’s second on the team in every receiving category, and only needs a few catches and a touchdown to reach value.
Clemson vs Syracuse
Line: Clemson -28.5
DeShaun Watson ($8,700) was a major disappointment as a fantasy asset early on in the year, but has really turned it on the last four games. He’s scored above 25.5 DraftKings points in all four games, including 39 and 49 point performances. It’s still tough to trust any of his receiving options, but Watson has nice stand-alone value in cash games.
Wayne Gallman ($6,500) quietly has three straight games of 100 rushing yards or more and six in his last seven. Shockingly he’s only topped 30 Draftkings points once this year, but you’ll take his high floor in cash games every time.
LSU vs Arkansas
Line: LSU -7.5
Leonard Fournette ($9,400) will be back to his normal ways this week against a relatively weak Arkansas defense. Last week was Fournette’s first game under 150 rushing yards, I expect him to get back to his regular pace this week. He did keep his touchdown streak alive, however. He’s scored at least one touchdown in every game this year.
I’m not sold on Brandon Harris ($5,200) being a fantasy asset, but the fact that he’s been competent this year has been huge for Malachi Dupre ($3,500) and Travin Dural ($4,200) production-wise. I prefer Dupre this week because he’s $700 cheaper. Before last week Dupre had three straight games above 17 DraftKings points.
While I don’t expect the Arkansas passing game to reproduce what they did last week, I do think there’s some value here. Coming off a six touchdown performance last week, Brandon Allen ($5,400) is a nice punt option at quarterback, especially if you’re stacking him with one of his cheap wide receivers. Drew Morgan ($4,600) is very reasonably priced once again. Dominique Reed is $300 above minimum salary, and he’s coming into this game with four straight games above 14 DraftKings points.
Alex Collins ($6,900) has a really tough matchup this week, and I’m staying away, even at his reduced price.
Memphis vs Houston
Line: Houston -7
Paxton Lynch ($8,600) and Greg Ward Jr. ($8,500) square off in what should be one of the highest scoring games of the weekend. I don’t particularly like either this week, as I prefer some of the cheaper quarterback options in this slate, but getting pieces of this game could prove essential to winning tournaments.
Kenneth Farrow ($6,300) has ten rushing touchdowns in his last six games, and has shown the ability to be more than simply a hedge off of Greg Ward, although he is great in that role as well. He’s a great cash game option, especially if you do decide to go with Ward as one of your quarterbacks.
Mose Frazier ($5,900), Anthony Miller ($5,700) and Demarcus Ayers ($5,500) are all great options this week in all formats. As mentioned above, getting as many pieces of this game as you can is a good idea, especially if you can get significant weapons at a discount like these three.
Line: Cincinnati -18
Gunner Kiel ($8,000) has been on fire of late, posting three straight games of 30 or more DraftKings points. This week provides another juicy matchup. Kiel is the safest cash game quarterback on the slate, set him in and forget it. Chris Moore ($5,400) has emerged the last two weeks, posting back-to-back 100 yards games and scoring three touchdowns. He’s still relatively cheap for his upside. MeKale McKay ($4,300) is a cheaper, discount version of Moore. He may not have the same upside, but he’s proven to make big plays happen consistently when the ball is thrown in his direction.
The post-Keevan Lucas injury era hasn’t treated the Tulsa offense well. He was their main weapon and what made it all work. Keyarris Garrett ($6,700) has 30 receiving yards in his last two games. At his current price, he simply isn’t worth the risk. Dane Evans ($7,400) has proven to be too inconsistent to trust in recent weeks, posting three games under 15 DraftKings points in his last four.
Washington State vs UCLA
Line: UCLA -10.5
This is a tough matchup for Luke Falk ($8,200) and his offense, but they pass with so much volume that it still seems like a good bet for him to hit value for you in your cash lineups. Falk has thrown over 40 pass attempts in every game this year, including six over 50. Gabe Marks ($6,000) and Dom Williams ($5,800) are the main beneficiaries and are good deals this week, especially if you’re stacking with Falk.
With UCLA having an implied team total of 37, Josh Rosen ($7,100) is a really nice value at quarterback. His two main options in the passing game, Thomas Duarte ($5,600) and Jordan Payton ($5,300), are both very solid prices for their upside. These three all fit together in both tournament and cash lineups.
If you’re heading in the UCLA passing game direction, it would be important to also make a lineup or two with Paul Perkins ($7,200). Just two weeks ago we saw Perkins rip apart a colorado defense for 159 total yards and two touchdowns in one half. UCLA went into a shell in the second half and nursed that lead into a victory. They aren’t a run-up-the-score type of team, so this is an important factor to consider.