We will take a look at some of today’s top overall plays as well as some value plays to help you fit in your studs.  Make sure you take your shot at qualifying for the March Mania Bracket Tournament!

 

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Game Analysis

Tonight offers us a 12 game slate with O/U’s that range between 117.5 and 146.5.  Of the 12 games tonight, 10 of them are repeat match-ups from earlier in the season and they offer us some more data to review in order to come up with our best lineups.  3 of the games have O/U’s in the 130’s and 2 games have O/U’s over 140 so there should be some good amount of scoring tonight.  We have a lot of players priced at $7K+, with nobody over $8.6K.  There are a number of senior nights across the country and that allows us to play narrative street and look for those seniors to step up in their final home games.

 

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GUARD TARGETS

Studs

 
  • D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera, Georgetown ($8,100) – Smith-Rivera is playing some of the best basketball in all of the country right now and is coming off of a 44.25 fantasy point performance.  He has scored 30+ points in 7 of his last 10 games and 32+ in 6 of his last 7.  He put up 23.75 fantasy points that last time these two teams met. This game offers us an O/U in the middle of the pack at 129.5 today and Georgetown is actually a 3 point underdog which should lead to a pretty tight game throughout.  This game has significant importance for both teams and should be a high energy affair.
 
  • Stefan Moody, Mississippi ($8,000) – Moody has back to back rough shooting performances as he has shot a combined 8 for 32 and 3 for 18 from deep.  Moody had combined for 75 fantasy points in the 2 games prior to the last two and is capable of going for 45+ on any given night.  Even with how poorly he has shot in the last 2, he has put up 51 fantasy points in 60 minutes of action.  I think he will be very low owned tonight as he will be over looked due to his recent performance and price tag combination.
 
  • Dez Wells, Maryland ($7,800) – After watching Wells play against Wisconsin a week ago, I am convinced that he can take over a game whenever he wants.  He plays extremely fast but its not out of control and he puts up points in many different ways and in a hurry.  The only thing that scares me is Melo Trimble as a PG is not somebody who is actively looking to get his teammates involved.  When he is getting the touches and not being put aside by his PG, Wells gets to the free throw line quite often.
 
  • Darrun Hilliard, Villanova ($7,500) – Hillard is coming off of a rough game in which he put up just 12.75 fantasy points and gets to take on a Creighton team that he lit up for 36.25 fantasy points in January.  Hilliard has shown us nearly 50 fantasy point upside and is able to get hot in a hurry from deep which is always nice thanks to the 3 point bonus on DK.
 
  • James Blackmon Jr, Indiana ($7,200) – Blackmon is coming off of a 20 point fantasy performance in which he managed to do while only shooting 1 for 10 from the field.  He has 40+ fantasy point upside and has basically alternated rough games with 28+ fantasy point games over the last month.  This game has the highest O/U of the slate at 146.5 and should have a handful of guys approach value tonight.
 

 

Values

 
  • Jevon Carter, West Virginia ($5,500) – Carter @ $5.5K is not necessarily a huge value play however, should Staten have to miss this game, Carter would be in line to take control of the offense after his last game of 39.25 fantasy points.  I think Carter makes a solid play even if Staten were to play as Browne looks to be out, but I would have to temper my expectations slightly with Staten in play.  Carter hit 7 3’s last time out and I do not expect that to happen again tonight.
 
  • Bishop Daniels, Rutgers ($4,100) – Daniels is pretty cheap for a guy who plays 30+ minutes and has the ability to put up 10+ shots in a game.  The last time these two teams played, Daniels put up 15.5 fantasy points in 25 minutes of action and 12 of those were real game points.  He should be able to get his hand involved in a few assists and rebounds tonight and should have an issue reaching 16+ points and making value.  He is coming off of a 20 fantasy point performance and has shown us 30 point upside.
 
  • JerShon Cobb, Northwestern ($3,800) – Cobb is set to return tonight after missing nearly a month of action for a variety of injuries.  He should be feeling as close to 100% as he possibly can tonight and we get a chance to roster him at a $1600 discount from his last full game played.  The last time these two teams played, Cobb scored 23 fantasy points.  I am not sure what kind of minutes the senior will see tonight, however it is a home game and senior night.  As long as he plays 18+ minutes, Cobb should not have a hard time achieving value tonight.
 

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FORWARD TARGETS

Studs

 
  • Perry Ellis, Kansas ($8,600) – Ellis is playing awesome basketball right now as he has put up 34.75+ fantasy points in his last 3 games and is coming off of a 47.25 fantasy point performance.  Just two weeks ago he put up 28.75 fantasy points against West Virginia and with the way he has been playing, should be in line for a 35+ point performance tonight.  Tonight is also the final home game for Ellis and I would look for him to come out pretty inspired.
 
  • Aaron White, Iowa ($8,200) – White plays in the game with the highest O/U of the night and is coming off of back to back 41+ fantasy point performances.  This game has a lot of post season ramifications for both teams as they battle to avoid the tournament bubble and also jockey for Big Ten tournament position.  White has double digit rebounds in 3 of the last 5 games and has double doubles in 2 of his last 3.
 
  • Troy Williams, Indiana ($8,000) – Williams is probably my favorite guy playing tonight and I admittedly have a huge man crush on him.  I finally got to watch Indiana play a full game the other day against Northwestern and Williams was all over the place for Indiana and he tried to single handedly will them to victory.  He went for a 21 and 14 double double and he looked very capable of handling the ball and I think this high scoring game fits perfectly into his energetic style of play.
 
  • Brice Johnson, UNC ($7,700) – Johnson bounced back with a 40.25 fantasy point performance and I think he comes close to that again tonight against Georgia Tech.  The last time these two teams played, Johnson went for 22.25 fantasy points in 20 minutes of action.  I would think he should see closer to 30 minutes in this one and should be able to provide a point + per minute.
 
  • Alex Olah, Northwestern ($6,800) – Olah is playing the best basketball of maybe his college career and should be motivated by senior night tonight.  He has put up 27+ points in 3 of his last 5 games and has put up 62.5 fantasy points combined in the last 2 games.  He put up 33.75 fantasy points the last time these two teams played and has big double double upside.  The Michigan interior does not scare me much in this one and I look for Olah to put up an 18 and 12 type double double.
 

 

Values

 
  • Mikael Hopkins, Georgetown ($4,800) – Hopkins sees his price jump $900 after his 32 fantasy point performance against St Johns.  Normally we try to avoid chasing points, however the game was not that out of nowhere as he has 4 20.25+ fantasy point performances over his last 10 and gives us great GPP upside at just $4.8K.  He is an active, high volume rebounder who is able to provide us a double double in 20-25 minutes of action.
 
  • Riley Norris, Alabama ($4,800) – Norris’ price has jumped much like Hopkins’ and he offers us a pretty similar upside.  The one difference is due to injury, Norris’ minutes are more secure and he should be in line for 30+ minutes tonight against Ole Miss.  He offers us double double upside and is not afraid to take the outside shot and can add a couple of threes to his stat line.
 
  • Kris Jenkins, Villanova ($3,800) – I could have thrown Vic Law in this spot but wanted to go down the list a little bit more and we come across Kris Jenkins and his 20-22 minutes per game.  He is coming off of a 26.75 fantasy point performance and should offer us 14+ tonight against Creighton.  He is a strong punt play to allow us to get a couple of studs in our lineups and he has shown the ability to knock down 3+ threes and add in 4 or 5 rebounds.  Don’t expect him to go off, however I think a 9-4-1 line with 2 threes is certainly within reach tonight.
 

 

That’s what we have for today and hopefully its a great day for you guys.  Certainly hoping I can take down one of the March Mania Tournament qualifiers today and save me some stress!  Hit me up on twitter, @Razzle11Grinds, if you have any questions or even news to share.  I will certainly do my best to share injury news.