Due to the midweek European fixtures, it’s a slim slate for Saturday with no major favorites in four matches. Chelsea has the best odds to win, but away from home, betting on them won’t be easy if you want a chance at the EPL $25K Saturday Chip Pass Special [$5K to 1st].
Callum Hudson-Odoi, Chelsea at Burnley, $8,700 — Is Willian ($9,900) worth it on this slate? I’m saying no and going with the cheaper Hudson-Odoi. He has a similar floor, creating 11 chances in his last three starts in all competitions and also took a team-high six corners in the midweek match against Ajax. If that continues, neither Willian nor Mason Mount ($9,100) have much of an edge, if at all.
Other Options — Tammy Abraham, Chelsea, $9,700; Richarlison, Everton, $8,100; Callum Wilson, Bournemouth, $7,700
VALUESNeal Maupay, Brighton vs. Everton, $6,100 — I can’t remember the last time I backed a Brighton forward, but Maupay has been surprisingly consistent with multiple shots in every home appearance and at least 8.3 fantasy points in four of his last five starts. Everton has lost three of four away and at a minimum should give up opportunities to Maupay.
Other Options — Leandro Trossard, Brighton, $6,500; Dwight McNeil, Burnley, $6,400; Joshua King, Bournemouth, $5,600
Ryan Fraser, Bournemouth at Watford, 7,400 — Fraser returned to the starting XI last weekend and had a classic performance, sending in 18 crosses, but connecting on only of them. When in the squad, his floor usually hits at least 10 fantasy points and in the match with the most implied goals, he’s a worthy bet, especially at a discount.
Other Options — Mason Mount, Chelsea, $9,100; Felipe Anderson, West Ham, $8,200; Roberto Pereyra, Watford, $6,000
Davy Propper, Brighton vs. Everton, $4,300 — Propper has been oddly consistent when in the lineup because he produces a variety of stats in a central role. He does a little bit of everything and has hit 5.1 fantasy points in every start this season. He may not provide upside, but you’re saving money instead of spending up on a set-piece taker for Sheffield United whose floor is one or two points higher.
Other Options — Oliver Norwood, Sheffield United, $5,700; John Fleck, Sheffield United, $5,400; Ashley Westwood, Burnley, $4,700
Diego Rico, Bournemouth at Watford, $5,500 — Rico has a similar floor to the more expensive guys so it makes sense to save a few bucks. He has at least 9.2 fantasy points in every match and has done more over the last three, producing 31 crosses, including 12 at Arsenal. You could spend on a couple of defenders, but if you pick one, Rico is the play.
Other Options — Lucas Digne, Everton, $6,500; Marcos Alonso, Chelsea, $6,000; Enda Stevens, Sheffield United, $4,800
VALUESJames Tarkowski, Burnley vs. Chelsea, $3,000 — It’s best to spend everything or spend nothing at defender and Tarkowski fits the nothing category. He has at least 5.4 fantasy points in all four home starts and the down outing came in a 3-0 loss against Liverpool. He also averages more than two interceptions per home match and Chelsea allows the third-most to defenders.
Other Options — John Egan, Sheffield United, $3,300; Lewis Dunk, Brighton, $2,700; Ben Mee, Burnley, $2,700
Roberto Jimenez, West Ham vs. Sheffield United, $5,200 — Jimenez has the best odds for a clean sheet and he doesn’t cost an overwhelming amount after making nine saves last match. He hasn’t been great as a starter, but Sheffield United are averaging less than one goal per match so a clean sheet is more than possible and that’s worth a bet.
Other Options — Kepa Arrizabalaga, Chelsea, $5,500; Ben Foster, Watford, $5,100; Jordan Pickford, Everton, $4,800
VALUESMat Ryan, Brighton vs. Everton, $4,700 — Ryan might be my top goalkeeper because he’s favored and has made 21 saves in his last four starts. Even if he allows a goal against Everton, who have scored one away goal this season, there’s a chance he still comes close to 10 fantasy points because of saves.
Other Options — Aaron Ramsdale, Bournemouth, $4,500; Dean Henderson, Sheffield United, $4,500; Nick Pope, Burnley, $4,200
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