Saturday’s slate is dominated by three large favorites in Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham. You can stack one of those teams and hope they score multiple goals or take a chance on one of the underdogs for the EPL 30K Saturday Chip Pass Special [$5K to 1st].
Willian, Chelsea vs. West Ham, $9,700 — You can spend-up on the Liverpool guys, but you almost need a goal or assist out of them to make value. Willian doesn’t have the same upside, yet his floor is almost always above 10 points with the lone down match being a game in which he had 8.2 fantasy points at Manchester City last weekend. As the main set-piece taker, he’s averaging 3.09 shots and 3.94 crosses per 90 minutes, and Chelsea should draw plenty set-pieces against struggling West Ham.
Other Options — Sadio Mane, Liverpool, $10,500; Son Heung-Min, Tottenham, $9,800; Christian Pulisic, Chelsea, $9,000
VALUESLeandro Trossard, Brighton at Liverpool, $5,600 — Not many will use Trossard because he’s at Anfield, but he could be a viable route. He’s already had 5.9 fantasy points in 59 minutes at Man United, and 6.1 DKFP in 74 minutes at Man City, so it’s possible. Of course, this is also dependent on Aaron Mooy, who started for the first time in almost two months the last match and took all of the corners. While Brighton won’t get a ton of opportunities, it’s not like Liverpool is invincible, giving up at least one goal in their last 11 matches in all competitions.
Other Options — Nathan Redmond, Southampton, $6,200; Troy Deeney, Watford, $6,100; Callum Wilson, Bournemouth, $5,300
James Ward-Prowse, Southampton vs. Watford, $7,400 — This maybe makes the most sense of any of my plays. Ward-Prowse has hit double-digits in his last five starts and the last time Southampton was favored, he scored and had 26.8 fantasy points against Bournemouth on Sept. 20. That was a long time ago, and even if he has a down match against Watford, he should hit 10 points, at a minimum.
Other Options — Dwight McNeil, Burnley, $7,800; Luka Milivojevic, Crystal Palace, $6,700; Robert Snodgrass, West Ham, $6,500
Harry Wilson, Bournemouth at Tottenham, $5,100 — Bournemouth went down a man early last match which is why Wilson was subbed out after the break. If they go with the same 3-4-3 formation, Wilson is an intriguing play against a backline that has allowed four goals in two matches under Jose Mourinho versus sub-par competition. It’s unknown what Wilson provides in this new formation, but he’s averaging 2.59 shots per 90 minutes, mostly as an outside midfielder.
Other Options — Aaron Mooy, Brighton, $4,300; Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, Southampton, $4,300; Jefferson Lerma, Bournemouth, $3,100
Trent Alexander-Arnold, Liverpool vs. Brighton, $7,300 — Brighton have allowed the fourth-fewest crosses in the league, yet that’s still not a good reason to avoid Alexander-Arnold, who I thikn will be chalk in cash lineups. Liverpool are expected to have the ball plenty on the attacking end, which should also lead to corners. Alexander-Arnold is averaging 11.77 crosses per 90 minutes and might be the safest bet for 10 fantasy points on the slate.
Other Options — Andrew Robertson, Liverpool, $5,900; Serge Aurier, Tottenham, $5,800; Reece James, Chelsea, $5,600
Steve Cook, Bournemouth at Tottenham, $2,900 — Due to the big favorites, there aren’t a ton of options if you want a true value defender. Cook at least finishes in the positive as he accrues tackles and interceptions every match. The hope is five fantasy points in this spot and Tottenham has allowed 14 more tackles than any other team in the league.
Other Options — Martin Kelly, Crystal Palace, $3,100; Davinson Sanchez, Tottenham, $3,000; Fabian Balbuena, West Ham, $2,900
Nick Pope, Burnley vs. Crystal Palace, $5,000 — None of the big favorites are guaranteed for clean sheets, so you can save money, and hopefully get the same amount of points with Pope. He has back-to-back clean sheets and has made at least three saves in each of his last four starts. Crystal Palace is scoring less than one goal per match and another clean sheet wouldn’t be surprising.
Other Options — Alisson, Liverpool, $5,900; Kepa Arrizabalaga, Chelsea, $5,800; Paulo Gazzaniga, Tottenham, $5,700
VALUESVicente Guaita, Crystal Palace at Burnley, $4,500 — On the other side of Pope, Guaita has also been fairly reliable. In fact, he’s allowed one or fewer goal against everyone outside of Liverpool, Chelsea, Leicester and Tottenham. If he can do that and add a few saves against Burnley, that’ll be enough to make value.
Other Options — Ben Foster, Watford, $4,400; Aaron Ramsdale, Bournemouth, $3,800; Mat Ryan, Brighton, $3,600
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