Saturday’s slate has a little bit of everything, so you can take a few strategies into the EPL 30K Rush the Pitch [$5K to 1st]. There are big favorites in Chelsea and Leicester City, but also three lesser teams favored at home who could potentially break the slate if one of their forwards goes off.
STUDSWillian, Chelsea vs. Bournemouth, $9,500 — If you want to bank on a goal, Tammy Abraham makes the most sense because he’s cheaper than Jamie Vardy and they have similar goal odds. Willian may have the best floor of the forwards with at least 20 fantasy points in each of his last three home starts in all competitions (UCL included) and at least 12 fantasy points in every home start outside of the match against Liverpool. Bournemouth has conceded the third most corners in the last 10 gameweeks, and that’s how Willian will hit another floor of at least 10 points. Other Options — Jamie Vardy, Leicester City, $10,800; Tammy Abraham, Chelsea, $9,700; Dwight McNeil, Burnley, $7,300
VALUESNathan Redmond, Southampton vs. West Ham, $5,500 — You can’t find a ton of production for value, but Redmond has at least been viable. He has 10 shots in his last four starts and at least five fantasy points in his last five starts in which he went the full 90. Southampton is a rare favorite and that could mean more opportunities for Redmond in the attack. If you go big at your other forward, Redmond at least won’t be a zero.
Other Options — David McGoldrick, Sheffield United, $6,400; Teemu Pukki, Norwich City, $5,400; Wesley, Aston Villa, $4,900
STUDSJames Maddison, Leicester City vs. Norwich City, $10,300 — I considered going cheaper, but it’s hard to deny Maddison’s floor of around 15 fantasy points, as well as upside that often surpasses 25 points. He’s averaging 2.85 shots and 8.09 crosses per 90 minutes and Norwich won’t slow him down. They’ve allowed the second-most corners and crosses in the league and that’s where Maddison feasts. Other Options — James Ward-Prowse, Southampton, $8,000; Jonjo Shelvey, Newcastle, $7,000; Robert Snodgrass, West Ham, $6,300
VALUESJeff Hendrick, Burnley vs. Newcastle, $3,300 — I’d only consider Hendrick if Ashley Westwood ($4,000) sits again because he’s taken six set pieces in the last three matches. That’s not a lot, but this is by far Burnley’s most favorable match since Westwood’s injury, and it wouldn’t be surprising if Hendrick hit 10 points with the help of extra set pieces. Of course, if Westwood starts, I’d put him in this spot, though he’s a bit more expensive at $4,000.
Other Options — Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, Southampton, $4,500; Wilfred Ndidi, Leicester City, $4,100; Onel Hernandez, Norwich City, $3,900
STUDSBen Chilwell, Leicester City vs. Norwich City, $5,300 — There isn’t one great defender on the slate, but Chilwell provides a nice floor and decent upside. He’s averaging 4.19 crosses per 90 minutes for the season and has 23 crosses in his last four starts. He’s held a floor close to 10 points against weaker competition and also has great clean sheet odds against Norwich. Most of the other expensive defenders don’t produce consistent crossing numbers, making their floor less reliable. Other Options — George Baldock, Sheffield United, $5,400; Reece James, Chelsea, $5,200; Diego Rico, Bournemouth, $4,900
VALUESJan Bednarek, Southampton vs. West Ham, $2,500 — There’s no point in spending $1,000 more on a defender for a floor that’s one or two points higher than Bednarek’s. He doesn’t commit a lot of fouls, so he won’t finish in the negative, and he’s usually good for a few tackles and interceptions. He doesn’t have a clean sheet since September but one is possible at home against West Ham.
Other Options — Ezri Konsa, Aston Villa, $3,300; Fabian Balbuena, West Ham, $3,100; Christoph Zimmermann, Norwich City, $2,700
STUDSNick Pope, Burnley vs. Newcastle, $5,200 — It wasn’t long ago that Pope was on back-to-back wins and clean sheets. A difficult schedule has led to some down performances, but that could change against Newcastle, considering they aren’t getting much from Joelinton and this will be their first match without Allan Saint-Maximin in a few months. While you can maybe guarantee wins with the more expensive goalkeepers, this match has the lowest implied goal total.
Other Options — Kasper Schmeichel, Leicester City, $5,900; Kepa Arrizabalaga, Chelsea, $5,800; Dean Henderson, Sheffield United, $5,300
VALUESMartin Dubravka, Newcastle at Burnley, $4,400 — On the other side of Pope, Dubravka is making at least three saves in almost every match. He’s averaging 3.75 saves per start and recently secured a clean sheet against Sheffield United. Burnley is banged up in the attack and Fabian Schar ($3,400) could return to the starting XI for Newcastle. Even if Dubravka allows a goal or two, saves should keep him fantasy relevant.
Other Options — David Martin, West Ham, $4,300; Tom Heaton, Aston Villa, $4,200; Tim Krul, Norwich City, $3,600
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (username: rotozdroik) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.