NHL Hall of Fame - Lesson 01 - Hot Streaks and Recency

Everyone loves it when a player is on a hot streak. There is nothing like it. The best thing is when an entire line catches the wave and rides it. Looking at recent hot streaks can be a crucial part of selecting your daily hockey lineups.

There are many different interpretations of what constitutes a hot streak and what “recent success” is. Let’s review both, while adding another metric to look at while building our lineups.

Recent Success

NHL: Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers

It is difficult to quantify how many games a player need to play well in in order to constitute being “recently successful.” Generally, players that have success over a 3-5 game span should be labelled as such. When constructing your lineups, take a look at a player’s recent success in his last few games. If a player is playing well over a 3-5 game span, these guys can be great selections. “Playing well” can be defined as producing fantasy points, in some capacity, over that span.

Given the rapid nature of daily fantasy sports, a player’s recent success may not lead to an immediate jump in price tag. These are the players that can create great value, as their price does not yet meet their recent fantasy point production. Be wary of players whose price tags jump considerably due to recent success, however, as recent success can quickly change to recent decline. You may not want to waste a large chunk of your salary on a player based on 3-5 games.

The bouts of recent success often result in at least one price spike, where a player’s value jumps by at least twenty percent or more. It will typically come in the middle or late stage of that recent success spurt. Again, keep an eye on the price of players with recent success, as their price tag should weigh into your lineup decisions.

Hot Streaks

Generally, a player on a hot streak is one who has a strong run of approximately 5-10 games. Sometimes, they can last a little longer. These are the players that we want in our lineups. They’ve shown that they can produce fantasy points at a consistent level during a span of games.

The consistent (generally high) scoring during a longer span of games is the difference between a hot streak and recent success. Where recent success is players being involved in fantasy scoring to some capacity, hot streaks are consistent, high point production over a longer span of games. Being able to find players that are in the midst of a hot streak, as opposed just being recently successful, will help your lineups considerably. These players will generally have higher salaries, as they’ve been consistently producing for a longer span of games, yet these players are usually worth their high asking price.

Long Duration Runs

NHL: Anaheim Ducks at Dallas Stars

These are runs where a player can go 10, 20, or even 30+ games on a streak. Typically for players in DFS, that consists of a range as high as 5-6+ daily points a game for non-goalies. Goaltenders are in a different boat err category. They are typically in the 6+ range for 10+ starts. Please note the contrasts here. It is quite essential.

Players that can produce at this high level are, most times, the high-end players of the league. They go on 10-20 game spurts throughout the season. Yes, a few games in the middle of these can be clunkers, but the overall body of work of approximately 5.5 DraftKings points per game over a month or two is the kind of production we can rely on in our lineups.

This is why taking a look at LDR’s can separate you from the pack. While most players look at more recent streaks and stats (recent success and hot streaks), looking back at a player’s 10-20 game log can be beneficial. As mentioned, most times, players on 10-20 game streaks are the high-end players that most DFSers recognize. However, finding a player that may have been productive at a level just below those superstars can be great lineup selections.

Concluding Thoughts

Hey, this is a tough business after all. You need different edges, and that is our goal to provide you with just enough information without overloading. It is wise to have a general understanding of how these runs of success compare and contrast. This will influence the decision making process in some capacity. Every little edge helps.