WATCH: WR TARGET DEZ BRYANT


For wide receivers, volume is necessary. These are the wide receivers I project to see the most targets during Divisional Round Weekend:

TOP-5 WR Target Projections

1. Antonio Brown: 10 targets – Ben Roethlisberger only attempted 18 passes last week thanks to the blowout, but Brown saw nine of those passes come his way. There will certainly be more pass-game volume this week, and the Chiefs have struggled against top WRs for much of the year in part because Marcus Peters does not shadow – they’re 19th DVOA vs. No. 1 WRs. The bigger concern than the matchup is road-weak Ben Roethlisberger traveling to Arrowhead, one of the league’s toughest places to play.

2. Julian Edelman: 10 targets – Edelman is averaging 12.5 targets per game in the seven since Rob Gronkowski’s injury. The Texans do rank second in pass yards allowed, second in YPA allowed and fifth in pass TDs allowed, but that won’t faze the Tom Brady/Edelman connection here. The biggest worry is volume as the Patriots are 15-point favorites against the fighting Brock Osweilers.

3. Julio Jones: 9 targets – Julio’s toe appeared to be around 90 percent in Week 17 and the bye week should have him back to 100 percent. The matchup against the Seahawks isn’t as difficult as it appears, with All-Pro FS Earl Thomas (leg) sidelined and Kyle Shanahan scheming Jones into positive situations. When these two teams met in Seattle Week 6, Julio’s slot reps got bumped up to 32.6 percent and he went for a 7-139-1 line.

4. Doug Baldwin: 8 targets – The Seahawks quietly have a higher implied team total than the Chiefs and just 0.75 points fewer than the Packers. I suspect Thomas Rawls and the Seahawks run-game will regress as they go on the road this week, putting more on the shoulders of Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin this week. Baldwin has seen double-digit targets in three of his last four full games.

5. Davante Adams: 8 targets (if Jordy Nelson is out) – With Jordy (hip) unlikely to play, Adams will be the no-doubt No. 1 outside receiver with Randall Cobb, Geronimo Allison and Jared Cook also heavily involved. It’s unclear how Adams will respond to the extra defensive attention – much like Cobb, Adams struggled badly last year while Nelson was out. But Adams has been a new man this year, especially in the red zone where he ranks fifth in the NFL in targets with 25, 9 of which he has converted into TDs.


WATCH: HOT READ PAUL RICHARDSON


Figuring out the top-end guys (above) is relatively easy. The low-end wideouts are much harder – and more valuable. Each week, I’ll discuss five wide receivers under $5,000 who I project for at least five targets.

1. Paul Richardson, Seahawks: $4,100

Richardson’s usage continued on the track we discussed in this space last week. In the two games since Tyler Lockett’s injury, P-Rich has been in on 88 percent of Russell Wilson’s dropbacks and seen a 17 percent target share. Wilson has only thrown 31 passes per game over the last two weeks, a number that is likely to rise this week as Matt Ryan keeps his foot on the gas in the Georgia Dome. When these two teams met in Seattle Week 6, Russ threw 37 passes.

Projection: 6 targets


2. Geronimo Allison, Packers: $3,900

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With Jordy Nelson (ribs) unlikely to play, Allison will slide in as the No. 3 WR behind Davante Adams and Randall Cobb. He’ll play mostly on the outside as Cobb and tight end Jared Cook work between the hashes. Allison is an underwhelming UDFA rookie out of Illinois, but we’ve seen what can happen when you’re simply on the field with a white-hot Aaron Rodgers. Allison went 4-66-0 with Cobb sidelined in Week 16 and 4-91-1 in Week 17.

Projection: 5 targets


3. Jeremy Maclin, Chiefs: $4,300

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Maclin’s role has shrunk to role-player proportions, as he’s averaged just 5.0 targets per game over the last four games and saw a meager 10 red zone targets all season. Over that aforementioned four-game stretch, Tyreek Hill averaged 5.2 targets and Travis Kelce was at 6.7. But Maclin is the most talented wideout we will get under $5,000 and moves all over the formation which means he’ll see a decent amount of burnable Steelers’ CB Artie Burns. Note Maclin was $6,700 on DK as recently as Week 7.

Projection: 6 targets


4. Mohamed Sanu, Falcons: $4,000

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Sanu has been an afterthought lately, seeing no more than four targets in any of his last four games. But two of those were massive blowouts and we know Sanu will have a steady role on an explosive offense playing at home against an Earl Thomas-less Seahawks’ secondary. Sanu played on 76 percent of the snaps for the season and had at least seven targets in five separate games. One of those was the Week 6 game in Seattle where he went 5-47-1 on 10 targets. For the season, Sanu has seen 15 red zone targets compared to 11 for Julio Jones (Devonta Freeman leads the team in red zone targets with 17).

Projection: 5 targets


5. Terrance Williams, Cowboys: $3,100

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If we’re looking for cheap ways to get exposure to the Packers’ brutal secondary, T-Will fits the bill. He plays on 70.4 percent of the snaps, has a reasonable aDOT (average depth of target) of 21.2 yards and averaged 4.7 targets over the Cowboys’ last four games. I would never consider Williams on a full slate, in any other matchup (GB has given up the most fantasy points to WRs in the league) or at any other price, but this unique situation has him on the radar as a punt.

Projection: 5 targets

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is AdamLevitan) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.