Every week, we as DFS participants, have choices to make. Do we want to go contrarian? What high-level player are we paying for? Who is someone we are staying away from? What’s the best value this week? Lastly, what stack is the one to consider this week? What I’ve done is answered all those questions in one article. Below you’ll find the top player for each of the questions above.
High-Level Must Start: Le’Veon Bell $9500
This week the player I’m paying up for is Bell. He has scored more than 28 fantasy points in four of his last five games. He also has a great matchup against the Bengals defense that has struggled to stop the run. They allow 122 rushing yards per game. They’ve also surrendered 15 rushing touchdowns, and are yielding 19.9 fantasy points per game to opposing backs. Not to mention, Bell’s best game this season came against the Bengals. In Week 14 when the two teams met, he ran for 185 yards, caught six passes for 50 yards, and scored three touchdowns. That performance was good for 50.5 fantasy points. Bell does it all for fantasy owners. He’s part of the passing game, and also runs the ball as well as any other back in the league. The Steelers are playing for their division and potentially the third seed in the AFC this week, so they still have a lot to play for. If you take all those factors into consideration, there’s not much to dislike about Bell this week.
Great Value: Mike Wallace $5600
I went back and took a look at Wallace’s prices earlier in the season. He was priced in the $5800-$6100 range when he was playing at the highest level. In recent weeks, he’s been playing well, yet his price hasn’t gone above the $5600 it’s currently at. In recent weeks, he’s been playing just as good as he was earlier in the season, if not better. He has scored three touchdowns in the last two games, and has scored double digit fantasy points in four of the last five games. He faces the Jets defense that hasn’t played well against opposing receivers. They allow 253.1 receiving yards per game, have surrendered 14 touchdowns, and are giving up 21.3 fantasy points per game to opposing receivers. The last time these two teams played each other, Wallace caught six passes for 69 yards. Last season the Dolphins lost to the Jets late in the season, and that loss caused them the chance to make the playoffs. They’ll likely be looking for some revenge this week against their division rivals. I’m expecting Wallace to have another solid performance, and end the season on a high note.
Contrarian Play: Teddy Bridgewater $5900
In the last week of the season, I’m looking to play players that are in teams playing for something or young players looking to end the season strongly to carry some momentum over to the following season. Bridgewater falls under one of those categories. He is a rookie quarterback who has played well as of late, and a nice finish to the season should give him a push heading into his second season. Teddy hadn’t thrown for two touchdowns in a game until Week 12. Since doing so, he’s thrown two touchdowns in three of his last four games. He has also thrown for more than 300 passing yards twice in the last three weeks. He finishes the season playing against the Bears, one of the worst defenses in the league. The Bears allow 18.7 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and have surrendered the most passing touchdowns (33). They also give up the second most passing yards per game (269). Bridgewater isn’t a popular play in most weeks, but this would be a good week to plug him in. There’s a good chance he won’t be highly owned.
Player to fade: Tom Brady $7800
There’s a good chance Brady does not play the entire game. In fact, on Saturday, it was reported that he is expected to play just one half. In addition, this is not the best matchup for a quarterback. The Bills allow the second fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks (11.7). They allow the third fewest passing yards per game (210), and have only allowed 16 passing touchdowns, yet have intercepted the ball 19 times. In fact, the Bills have only surrendered four passing touchdowns in their last eight games. They actually held Rodgers to zero touchdowns, being the only team to do so this season. The Patriots have already clinched the number one seed in the AFC, so there’s really no reason for Brady to even be on the field. The Bills are a great pass rushing team, and having Brady out there in a game with no meaning is just too risky. There’s no need to take a chance with him this week. It’s a tough matchup, and it appears that the best case scenario would be that he plays two quarters.
Stack Play: Andy Dalton $6000 to A.J. Green $8300
The Bengals and Steelers game will determine the winner of their division, the third seed in the playoffs, and home field advantage in the first round of the playoffs. With that said, Dalton makes a solid start this week. He already found some success against the Steelers this season. When they played in Week 14, he threw for 302 yards and two touchdowns. The Steelers defense has struggled against the pass this season. They are allowing the sixth most passing yards per game (255), give up 17.4 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and have surrendered 28 passing touchdowns. Much like Dalton, A.J. Green also had a big game against the Steelers a couple of weeks ago. He caught 11 passes for 224 yards and scored a touchdown. The Steelers have been just as bad against receivers as they have been against quarterbacks. They are allowing 23.3 fantasy points per game to opposing receivers, and have yielded 15 touchdowns, six of those in the last four games. With so much at stake, the Bengals should come out on fire, and should once again find success against this vulnerable defense.
Defense: Miami Dolphins $3100
The Dolphins will close out the season against the Jets offense that hasn’t played well this year. They are averaging the fourth fewest points per game of all teams in the NFL (16.4), and have turned the ball over 23 times. The Dolphins defense hasn’t played as well as they did early in the season, but there’s not much to fear about the Jets’ offense. If you’re not looking to pay for one of the more expensive defenses, the Dolphins have a great matchup and are cheaper than some of the other defenses.