Every week, we as DFS participants, have choices to make. Do we want to go contrarian? What high-level player are we paying for? Who is someone I’m staying away from? What’s the best value this week? Lastly, what stack is the one to consider this week? What I’ve done is answer all those questions in one article. Below you’ll find the top player for each of the questions above.
High-Level Must Start: Jordy Nelson $7700
Nelson isn’t the most expensive receiver, nor is he the most expensive player this week, but he’s the high-level player that I feel should be in all lineups. He’s been superb all season, even more so in Lambeau Field where this matchup will take place this week. In four home games, he’s caught 20 passes for 507 yards and five touchdowns. He’s scored in every game in Green Bay this season. He’s averaging 26.68 fantasy points per game at home. Not to mention, he’s playing against the Eagles who are giving up the third most fantasy points per game (25.2) and have allowed the second most touchdowns to opposing receivers (13). Nelson is pretty much matchup-proof, but when he’s the fifth most expensive receiver and has such a good matchup, it’s almost impossible to not have him in your lineup. Look for his home game touchdown streak to continue this week.
Great Value: Jonathan Stewart $3400
I normally don’t have a really cheap player in this category, but in a week where prices are a bit tough to navigate through, I couldn’t believe my eyes when I came across Stewart’s price. Granted Stewart isn’t anything special and hasn’t done all that much this season. But last week he found the end zone for the first time since Week 2. This week, he has a favorable matchup against the worse run defense in the NFL. The Falcons are allowing 23 fantasy points per game to running backs and have already surrendered 99 or more rushing yards in six games this year. Stewart is averaging 5.15 yards per carry in 10 career games against the Falcons. In all but one game, he’s received more than 10 carries and scored over 12 fantasy points. He’s been more effective than fellow running back DeAngelo Williams and should see most of the goal line touches.
Contrarian Play: Keenan Allen $4500
Many people have probably given up on Allen this season, and they have every right to. However, keep in mind, this is daily, and every now and then, we have to give players with the ceiling a go when they’re priced at a reasonable price. It’s unlikely that many people will be eyeing Allen this week, but I am. In three career games against the Raiders, Allen has two touchdowns. He also has 12 catches for 168 yards. His worst performance against the Raiders came earlier this season. The Raiders have given up over 100 receiving yards and six touchdowns in five of the last six games to opposing receivers. The Chargers are coming off of a bye, but in Week 9, the offense was horrendous. Their last win was actually against the Raiders in Week 6. I’m expecting them to come out on fire and for Allen to have that game we’ve all been hoping for this season. If there’s a week to roll the dice on Allen, it’s this week. He’s cheap and has a good matchup.
Player to fade: Larry Fitzgerald $6300
Fitzgerald has been playing well in the last three weeks, hence the raise in his salary this week. This is the most expensive he’s been since Week 1. My concern is that Drew Stanton will be under center for the Cardinals and this is a tough matchup against the league’s best pass defense. The Lions are allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers (15.6). They have only allowed four touchdowns to receivers and have kept them under 20 fantasy points in seven of their nine games. Of the four touchdowns allowed, only two have been on the road, so it’s not like they struggle away from home. Keep in mind they kept the Packers receivers out of the end zone in Week 3 and the Falcons receivers in Week 8. The Lions will likely be pressuring Stanton all day and will make it difficult to for him to get the ball to his receivers. I’d rather wait for a better matchup and a lower price if I’m going to play Fitzgerald.
Stack Play: Robert Griffin III $6300 to DeSean Jackson $7300
Of course I want to stack the Packers offense every week, especially this week, but financially that can be an issue. Stacking the Packers will cost you roughly 34 percent of your salary cap, whereas, Griffin and Jackson will cost you just 27 percent. If you think of about it, it’s probably good thing that the Redskins got Griffin’s feet wet against the Vikings prior to their bye week. He threw for 251 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. I’m sure you can guess who the recipient of that touchdown was. Yes, it was DeSean Jackson. This week, they are at home against a bad Bucs pass defense. The Bucs allow 18.1 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and 28.8 fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Jackson has proven that regardless of who’s throwing the ball in Washington, he can be productive. He has five 100+ receiving yard games this season. The Bucs have allowed eight touchdowns in the last four games to receivers and nine touchdowns to quarterbacks. If there’s a game where Griffin can break out, it would be this one. This is one of the cheapest available stacks this week and at a great price. I wouldn’t hate if you sprinkled Garcon in there in a GPP.
Defense: Arizona Cardinals $2800
The Cardinals are hosting the Lions at home in Week 11. Their opponents have only scored over 20 points in a game once this season, and that was the Denver Broncos. The Cardinals defense has not scored negative fantasy points once this year and is averaging 11.2 fantasy points per game at home. They are good defensive unit and at a good price.