The Texans and Jaguars will be playing on neutral field Sunday morning as this game takes place in London and will start at 9:30 a.m. ET. This matchup sees the Texans with a 5-3 record and the Jags at 4-4.
Note: All salaries will be Flex prices unless noted as Captain’s Pick prices
Houston TexansThe last time these two teams met, Deshaun Watson ($11,600) scored only 12.86 DKFP, completing 55% of his 29 pass attempts for 159 yards and one rushing touchdown. The Jaguars don’t really allow opposing quarterbacks to go off, as they allow an average of 18.8 DKFP, 257 passing yards and seven passing touchdowns. With that in mind, Watson couldn’t come in any hotter, averaging 26.5 DKFP over his past three starts. With his rushing floor seemingly back on track, Watson is still very much in play despite the average on paper matchup. Since Week 5, Watson has rushed for over 40 yards in three of the Texans’ four matchups. Despite being the most expensive option on the slate, Watson draws captain appeal at $17,400.
It’s hard to feel great about the Texans’ run game, as neither Carlos Hyde ($6,400) or Duke Johnson ($4,800) are getting it done from a fantasy standpoint. Hyde is essentially a touchdown-or-bust option, as when he scores he’s averaging 14 DKFP per game. When he doesn’t that number drops to 8.1 DKFP. He’s essentially useless with regard to catching out of the backfield, seeing only 10 total targets and hauling in six catches for 22 yards. Hyde hasn’t seen more than a single target in four straight games and has just one catch for 14 yards. He dominates the red zone carries with at 55% so he can be used in your lineup, but not as a captain. Johnson handles the majority of the passing down work but is averaging just 3.3 targets a game. He’s yet to see more than nine carries despite a 5.8 YPC average. With his cheap salary, Johnson is worth a look. We have seen some backs with success in the passing game against the Jags, as the Saints most recently had 70 yards on 10 receptions.
The Jags haven’t allowed a wide receiver to score since Week 4 against the Broncos. Since then, they’ve allowed an average of 17.1 DKFP and 159 receiving yards. DeAndre Hopkins ($11,400) deserves some captain consideration ($17,100) with the heavy volume he receives. He hasn’t made less than five catches the entire season and over the past three weeks has 29 receptions for 270 yards on 37 targets. With Will Fuller out for this game again, Hopkins sees his target share jump up to 32.1%, by far the highest on the team. The second-biggest increase belongs to Kenny Stills ($7,400), who has an 11.5% share without Fuller. He’s one of the cheaper captains ($11,100) to consider with his big-play abilities. I love his matchup against CB Tre Herndon, as he’s allowing 15.1 YPR on 23 catches for 347 yards. Keke Coutee ($5,400) and DeAndre Carter ($1,200) are salary saving options to consider but neither are exactly moving the needle.
The tight end position is one that Jags have struggled with, allowing an average of 7.6 DKFP. The Jets scored twice with Ryan Griffin last week and we’ve seen Watson go in this direction a lot as of late. Darren Fells ($5,800) seems to be the preferred option over Jordan Akins ($1,800). I think Fells is very much in play and would prefer him over some of the cheaper receiver options like Coutee and Cater.
Jacksonville JaguarsGardner Minshew ($10,800) really feels primed for a big spot against the Texans. The Texans defense has been decimated by injuries, noticeably losing J.J. Watt last week. The Texans have been one of the most generous defenses to opposing QBs, allowing an average of 26.3 DKFP, 293 passing yards and 18 total passing touchdowns. Minshew has at least 21 DKFP and 255 passing yards in three of his past four games. I don’t think people give him enough credit for his rushing abilities either, as he’s averaging 25 per game and has over 40 in three of them. He’s almost a necessity in a lineup.
The Texans’ run defense has been great on the ground. After the Saints went for 140 on the ground in Week 1, they haven’t allowed more than 93 rushing yards in a game since. However, before you go and write off Leonard Fournette ($9,600) you should know that he’ll be very useful in the passing game. Averaging 5.6 targets a game, this is a Texans defense that’s allowed a league-leading 476 receiving yards to opposing backs with an 89.4% catch rate. The sheer volume Fournette receives has him in play no matter who the opponent is. Volume is king so Fournette is captain worthy at $14,400.
D.J. Chark ($8,800) is your WR1 for this game with Dede Westbrook ($7,200) coming in banged up and questionable to play. When Westbrook is off the field, Chark has a 31% target share, a 13.2 aDOT and a massive 66.7% red zone target share. He’s another player I would shudder to think what would happen if I didn’t have him in my lineup. Along with Hopkins as my favorite captain option, Chark is a very close second for me at $13,200. If Westbrook is ruled out, Chark is by far the top captain option for me. Another receiver who gets a bump if Westbrook is out is Chris Conley ($6,800). Without Westbrook, Conley has a 17.2% target share, up from his 13.2% when Westbrook is on the field. He’s had back-to-back games with over 80 receiving yards but is your boom-or-bust option of the Jags. Keelan Cole ($4,400) is your cheap salary saving receiver to use if Westbrook is out. His ownership will be very low and should see some increased usage with Marquise Lee now on IR.
The amount of injuries the Texans are dealing with defensively is going to be too much to overcome. While the Texans will be able to hang in this game and keep it close, they’ll ultimately fall in London and as stated above, I like Chark in the captain’s spot.
Final Score: Jaguars 27, Texans 24
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