Tyreek Hill

Betting on the Super Bowl is unlike any game. Not only do we get the standard betting options that are available for every game on DraftKings Sportsbook, but we get flooded with a plethora of options to target almost any angle or narrative for the game that you could imagine.

Here are my favorite bets to target on the Kansas City Chiefs:

BETS TO CONSIDER


All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.


PLAYER PROPS (QB): PATRICK MAHOMES PASSING YARDS

UNDER 299.5 (+104)

I’ll be honest, I was ready to take the over here until I did all the research. Mahomes hit 300 yards in eight of the 15 games he started and finished this season, but five of them were to begin the season. That means Mahomes has had just three 300-yard games since Week 5. I do think the Niners jump out to the lead, which could mean slinging it more like we’ve seen the last couple games — but this isn’t Houston or Tennessee. San Francisco allowed an NFL-best 169.2 passing yards per game in the regular season. So how did Mahomes fare when he faced other elite pass defenses this season? Not well. Against the Patriots, who rank second in passing yards allowed per game, Mahomes threw for 283 yards. Against the Chargers, who rank fifth, he threw for just 182 and 174. Against the Bears, who rank ninth, he threw for 251. The right play here is to let this get bet up and go for the under.


PLAYER PROPS (QB): MAHOMES VS. GAROPPOLO

MAHOMES LONGEST COMPLETED PASS (-150)

Mahomes has long completions of 60-yards against Tennessee and 48 against Houston in the postseason. Garoppolo’s long in the playoffs is just a 30-yarder. In those 15 starts Mahomes has finished, he’s had a long completion of 40 or more yards 11 times. Garoppolo accomplished that just seven times in 18 starts. There isn’t much juice to lay on the far more explosive offense.


PLAYER PROPS (WR): RECEIVING YARDS MATCHUPS

(JUSZCZYK VS. ROBINSON)

DEMARCUS ROBINSON (-162)
So in my Niners article, I played U12.5 receiving yards for Juszczyk. Sure, Robinson might be the WR3/WR4 in this game for KC, but may I remind you this prop is set against the opposing team’s fullback! Juice hasn’t even been targeted in the entire postseason. Robinson could conceivably win this bet just by registering a catch (as long as he doesn’t lose yards). Robinson averages 26.9 receiving yards per game, and he has 11 games of 12 or more receiving yards, which is where his competitions prop is set. Laying -162 on a WR to have more receiving yards than a FB seems silly.


PLAYER PROPS (WR): PLAYER TO HAVE LONGEST RECEPTION

TYREEK HILL (+350)

Not much goes into this one. The fastest player on the field that gets the deep targets is the favorite to have the longest reception. He has six games with a reception of 39-plus yards, and +350 is still a nice payout for the favorite here.


TEAM PROPS: CHIEFS TO DO “X”

FIRST KICKOFF RESULT IN A TOUCHBACK: YES (-177)

Harrison Butker has a huge leg, and the kicking conditions in Miami should be prime. Butker had a 68% touchback rate away from home this season, and kicking it deep on the opening kickoff feels even more likely. This feels like a cheap price on the first one getting booted to the back of the end zone.


MVP PLAYS

TYREEK HILL (+2000)

TRAVIS KELCE (+2000)

If you’re even looking at Mahomes (+115), I’d strongly recommend just playing KC ML (-122) … why put yourself in position for KC to win and miss the payout on an MVP bet? Let’s remember, Tom Brady was a huge favorite last year, and Julian Edelman wound up with the award. In a similar approach here, we’ll take Mahomes’ top-two weapons, and hope one has a big enough game to win it.


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