It’s Super Bowl week, and that means no shortage of different prop bets to wager on over at the DK Sportsbook. Here are some prop bets to consider from the Patriots’ side of the action.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
TOM BRADY: 299.5 PASSING YARDS
Despite the emergence of the running game for New England, Brady’s thrown for at least 343 yards in both playoff games so far this season. Brady’s surpassed 300 yards in four of his eight Super Bowls, including each of the past three. He totaled a record 505 passing yards in the loss to the Eagles last year and 466 in the comeback victory over the Falcons in the previous season.
ROB GRONKOWSKI: 50.5 RECEIVING YARDS
Gronk’s been banged up all season, but he was there when Brady needed him most to pull out the victory in Kansas City, hauling in 6-of-11 targets for 79 yards. Aside from the likes of Phillip Dorsett, Gronkowski is the Patriots’ only downfield target — and he has a significant size advantage. With everything on the line, look for Gronkowski to piece together one more vintage game against a defense that struggles against tight ends.
REX BURKHEAD: 4.5 CARRIES
The Sony Michel hype is real, and you’ll see I support taking some of his props below. But New England isn’t going to rely solely on the rookie in the biggest game of the season. Burkhead handled 12 carries against Kansas City and was trusted with the carry that won the game in overtime. Burkhead also carried five times in Week 17 and 13 times in Week 16, putting himself over this number in four of his past five games. Michel will be the featured back, but Burkhead should find five or more carries in this game.
FIRST TOUCHDOWN OF THE GAME
SONY MICHEL (+600)
Michel’s scored the first touchdown in three of the past four games the Patriots have played, including opening drive touchdowns in both playoff games. Against their usual strategy, the Patriots have been taking the ball first this postseason and going for early leads, which they then protect with their running game. Getting 6:1 odds on Michel finding the end zone first feels strong.
TO SCORE A TOUCHDOWN AND TEAM WIN
SONY MICHEL (+185)
This goes hand-in-hand, but the Patriots have been thriving on the ground during the postseason. In all likelihood, Michel is about to have the most rushing yards in one postseason in Patriots history. But he also has five touchdowns in the two games along the way. If you like the Pats in this game, this is an interesting way to get much better odds on them winning. We just need to hope Michel keeps finding the end zone like he has. If you take this and the first touchdown of the game, you’re looking at a nice pay day.
TO SCORE A TOUCHDOWN ANYTIME
PHILLIP DORSETT (+240)
Dorsett’s caught both of Brady’s touchdown passes in the postseason, one coming in each game. That streak actually goes back three weeks with another touchdown in Week 17 against the Jets. With all five of Dorsett’s scores this season coming with Josh Gordon off the field, Dorsett’s props are being slightly undervalued in the Super Bowl.
TEAM TO OBTAIN MOST FIRST DOWNS
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-125)
The Patriots were methodical against the Chiefs, making a point of keeping their high-flying offense off the field. New England more than doubled Kansas City in time of possession, and did it with long drives and continuous first downs. In the end, the Pats doubled up the Chiefs in first downs, 36-18. Look for a similar strategy to be used against the Rams.
AWAY TEAM TO WIN BY 1-6 POINTS (+350)
This is just another way to get good odds on a Patriots win, but you need to hit a tight window. All eight Super Bowls during the Brady/Belichick era have been decided by one score. While you miss out on a win by a touchdown, you still get the advantage of a pretty high payout on a close win for the Pats.
TOM BRADY (+110)
This is the obvious one, but with good reason. Brady’s won the award in four of his five Super Bowl wins, the other going to Deion Branch, when he has 11 catches for 133 yards in a 2004 victory over the Eagles. Considering that historic plays/games have been had by Malcolm Butler and James White in the Patriots’ past two Super Bowl victories, it would take a lot for TB12 not to hoist the award if the Pats are victorious.
SONY MICHEL (+2000)
One of the game scripts to Brady not winning MVP would be continued dominance on the ground by Michel. It’s a lot to ask, but if Michel has another three-touchdown game, while Brady has zero or one touchdown with a turnover, Michel would be a worthy MVP. The payout here feels like it’s worth a small wager, even if you’re betting Brady, too.
JAMES WHITE (+2800)
So this one I’m just operating under the narrative that White already should have a Super Bowl MVP in his trophy case. Brady led a tremendous comeback against the Falcons but also played horribly in the first half. White had 14 catches in that game, totaling 139 yards on 20 touches. He scored three touchdowns, including the game-winner in overtime. If he has a big game this time around, he could be voted the MVP, with voters remembering the snub the last time around.
Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.