The one thing about Football that I’m sure most of us will agree on is how quickly it passes us by. I mean, after tonight’s game we will be three weeks in and almost 25 percent of the way through the season. Sadly, in some of your home leagues you may 0-3 and may have suffered some big injuries that’ll keep you out of contention. Think of all the countless hours and time spent getting information for your season long leagues, and now you have nothing to look forward to. The good news is we still have plenty of time to make some money in DFS. That being said, don’t miss on the opportunity to become a millionaire in one week by playing the NFL $7M MILLIONAIRE MAKER [$1.2M TO 1ST].
One of the things that took me a couple of weeks to get accustomed to when I began playing DFS was how to use player salaries to my advantage instead of letting them hurt me. One of the many terms you will hear often in DFS is value. Looking for value is very important, but understanding a value spot is even more important. Generally, the most expensive players are not considered value plays, but that’s not always the case. Let’s use Aaron Rodgers as an example. In Week 1, his salary was $8,600 and he played against a team he threw 10 touchdowns against last season. In Week 2 his salary was $8,300. Granted, he played the Seahawks, but you’ll see where I’m getting at in a second. Last season, Peyton Manning was priced over $10,000 in Week 1 and in most weeks a lot of the high-end quarterbacks were priced upwards of $9,000. So at $8,600 and $8,300, and also being one of the most expensive quarterbacks each week, Rodgers has actually been decent value because of not only pricing but also what he’s capable of doing. You see, Rodgers has a much higher floor than most quarterbacks and he’s usually worth every penny most of the time. Let’s look at this from a totally different angle. Nick Foles was $5,200 this week and had what appeared to be a great matchup against the Steelers. However, let’s be honest, besides his one year in the Eagles, where I firmly believe he was a product of the system, Foles hasn’t looked like a good NFL quarterback. There’s a reason why his salary is so low against a bad defense, he’s not that good. Several factors suggest that he was indeed a value play, but this is when you have to trust all the research you’ve done on a player and use that to your advantage. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying completely avoid a situation of this nature all the time, I’m simply saying to be realistic in your expectations. Foles offers a very low ceiling and floor, so in order for him to hit value even at that low price he has to have a decent game. Even at his low price, he failed to hit value for the second straight week. There are tons of value plays every week and tons of spots where it seems good. Just make sure you understand what a player can or can’t do before considering him a value play or not. A salary alone does not dictate whether a player is a value play or not.
Another word you may often hear is contrarian. In a nutshell, contrarian can be defined as going against the grain. When I first started, my contrarian plays where unorthodox to say the least. I tried too hard to think outside the box. Realistically it’s not that complex. See, a contrarian play can be as simple as picking an elite player with a bad matchup that nobody is on that week. You may be asking yourself, why do that? Why not go with a cheaper player that nobody is on and save some salary? Now I’d ask you this, does that cheap player offer the same upside that the expensive player with a tough matchup offers? Most of the time the answer will be no. Being contrarian means being different, it does not mean plugging in a player on your roster that nobody else has. There’s a reason why no one else has that player. Here’s an example. Antonio Brown is playing the Seahawks in Seattle and Julio Jones is playing the Bears in Atlanta and they are both the same salary. I think we would all agree that Jones is the better play. However, if you’re trying to be contrarian you go with Brown. He offers a similar amount of upside and just about the same floor as Jones does, but will be far less owned than Jones will. You don’t always have to look for cheap players or the needle in the haystack. Sometimes, using an elite player that doesn’t have a pleasant matchup or is overpriced can be a contrarian play, and it wouldn’t involve as much of a risk as choosing a random cheap player.
That’s all for this week. Good luck to those with sweats tonight. Until next week!