This was probably one of the most surprising weeks in football that I have seen in a while. I mean, Travis Benjamin is currently on the roster of the team in the lead in this week’s Millionaire Maker. Before I continue, for those who are not aware, DraftKings makes a millionaire every week. For your chance to become the next Millionaire at the low price of $20, click the following link NFL $7M MILLIONAIRE MAKER [$1.2 MILLION TO 1ST].
I’ve gone from someone who played anywhere between 8-10 yearly leagues to someone who is only in two season long leagues this year. My focus is now on grinding DFS. I don’t consider MFL’s as season long leagues, so those are not included in the two I mentioned. The reason for cutting back this season isn’t for monetary purposes, but more so because when I participate in something, I like to give it my all. When online poker was legal in the U.S., I played often and eventually began to take it serious. I spent hours discussing hand history with others, watched videos nonstop, and picked the brains of those who were far better than I was. It’s my competitive nature. Even when I feel I’m good at something, I’m constantly finding ways to improve. This is exactly how I feel about DFS. Each week I’m looking at ways to improve, looking at things that I wasn’t considering in weeks past, and this week was no different.
Something I’ve talked about many times in the past with friends and may have even mentioned on my podcast is using Thursday night’s games to your advantage. There are those weeks, like the first two this season, where one can expect a lot of points to be scored and it may be in your best interest to stay away. However, last season out of the 16 Thursday night games, 44 percent had an under of 50 total points. Eleven times, one of the teams scored fewer than 21 points and in one instance both teams scored 12 points or less in the same game. However, ownership percentages in these games were still above what they really should have been. Why? I’m honestly not sure, but it’s definitely something that we can use to our advantage. For instance, let’s use this Thursday night’s game as an example. Since Week 3 lines aren’t up (or at least I couldn’t find them), I’ll use recent history and this year’s numbers as my base. In the last five games the Giants and Redskins have played each other, these are the following point totals: 33, 41, 26, 59, and 37. Don’t be misled by that 59 point total because in that game, the Giants scored 45 points. The Redskins however, have not topped 17 points once in those five games. This season they have scored a total of 34 points in two games, an average of 17 points per game. This would be a good week to fire at a tournament that begins on Thursday night and completely fade the game. Granted, Odell Beckham Jr. is very tempting, but his ownership percentage will likely be through the roof. Knowing that a good amount of the field have some exposure to the Thursday night games and the fact that your able to make edits to your roster right up until the players lock at game time, can put you on ahead of the rest of the field.
Another thing I’d like to discuss this week is how to use recent player performances to your advantage. There are times where a player under performs and there are times where he over performs. When this happens it’s up to you to determine if this was a one-time deal or not. It’s also important to know how this will affect that player’s ownership the following week. For example, in Week 1, Calvin Johnson was owned 10 percent across DraftKings. In that game he caught just two passes for 39 yards, scoring 5.9 fantasy points and disappointing some of his owners. That led to a drop in ownership in Week 2 from 10 percent to 4.7 percent. Keep in mind, his price also dropped $300 and the matchup was actually a tad better than that of Week 1. However, his previous week’s performance influenced the decision of owners. It also has the opposite effect when a player does well. For instance, Carlos Hyde was owned 4.6 percent in Week 1 and had a monster game. This past week his ownership spiked to 39.80 percent. That’s a significant jump. Don’t let one week of a player’s production place too much emphasis on your decision the following week and if a player burns you one week, don’t automatically rule him out as an option. Each week is different, which is one of the beautiful things about DFS.
See you next week. Best of luck to all!