@Armando_fbguru on twitter
There are two weeks left in the regular season, and for the most part, in yearly leagues, this is the week of the Championship game. As far as daily, we still have several weeks to get lineups in. I’ve been comparing the two throughout the season and my experience in transitioning from yearly leagues to daily leagues. I’ve discussed many differences, as well as similarities.
Over the last couple of weeks I’ve created some lineups early in the week. When doing this, it gives me too much time to make changes, shuffle players in and out of the lineup, and essentially, opens the door for some over thinking. One of the mistakes we tend to make when playing DFS is overthinking. As some of you have read in my previous articles, I’ve compared some of my experience in DFS to my experience in poker, and this is another instance where I can compare the two. In the poker, players often use the saying “think long, think wrong.” This can also be said about DFS. If you have too much time to examine your lineup and mess around with it, there will likely be a point where you’ve over analyzed it.
I’ve been guilty of this, and I’m sure so have many others. I’m not saying don’t start your research early in the week, or don’t start checking out prices or what not. However, I would consider waiting for news to come out before submitting a lineup or making a final decision on a lineup. There are times early in the week where a lot of player statuses are up in the air. If you create a lineup and avoid these players, or use a player who has a shot to play but doesn’t end up playing, it can change your entire roster. Then you’re essentially starting from scratch. By waiting until later in the week, you’ll have done plenty of research, reviewed matchups, and have a better idea of injury related news. Once you have all of that, then you can make better decisions. For example, Rashad Jennings did not practice today, if you’re considering him or even Andre Williams in your lineup, you won’t have enough information to make an informed decision.
Swapping players in and out is something I’d try to avoid as well. If you’re content with your lineup, leave it as is. Barring any injuries or any last minute scratches, there’s no need to swap players in and out. This leaves room for error. If your research and your gut ultimately led you to a specific player, don’t change that player on Sunday at 11:30am because another analyst or a reporter on TV said that player X is a must start. If he didn’t make your lineups, so be it. Yes, it works sometimes, but the times it doesn’t, you end up thinking to yourself, I should have gone with my gut. One’s instincts are better to follow than someone else’s.
Lastly, people tend to swap ideas, players suggestions, and other strategies on a weekly basis. This is actually a great tool, because you are able to get other peoples perspectives. I actually discuss plays with friends every week. However, when doing this there are some things you should be aware of. First, are the people you’re exchanging ideas with playing cash games or tournaments? Some of the players they suggest are better tournament plays, while others can be better for cash games. The other thing you should know is how many games are they playing. If you talk to someone who’s playing fewer than five lineups, there’s a chance he won’t have Donte Moncrief in any of his lineups. Whereas, someone who plays over 20 lineups, could have Donte Moncrief in a spot or two. These are some key things to ask and be aware of when discussing ideas and plays with others.
That’s all for this week. Best of luck to all of you in your yearly league Championship games and in your daily league games this week. Until next week!