My Sunday morning consisted of a great breakfast, some Cuban coffee, and building a ton of lineups. It was Week 14 and there was a three dollar millionaire maker. What was I supposed to do? I’m usually not a high volume tournament player as I play more cash games than GPPs on a weekly basis, so creating a lot of unique tournament lineups was time consuming and very tedious to say the least. Kudos to those who do it every week.
Unfortunately, I was unable to watch much football on Sunday as I had some family events to attend and spent most of my day doing that. I did however, keep tabs on the games from my phone. It’s not the same as sitting on my couch, that’s for sure. At one point, a family member approached me and said, “I’m done for the day in DFS and in our season long league, Andy Dalton got hurt.” He played a couple of tournaments and exposed himself mostly to Dalton. Granted, we can’t control injuries and if he had a good game this may seem like something we wouldn’t discuss. However, I think it’s very important to have diversity amongst your lineups. Do not put all your eggs in one basket, because in a week like the one we just saw this week, an injury can ruin your Sunday. Now don’t get me wrong, in cash games I’m usually rolling one, maybe two lineups, but in cash games since we are mostly playing the chalk like most of the field, an injury does not impact us as much as it would in tournaments where there are so many different lineups and players used.
Let’s assume you like several quarterbacks one week, or even if you just like two, it would be a good idea to sprinkle each of them in your lineups to create some diversity between your rosters. This allows you to have a chance if one of your players goes down or doesn’t perform up to par. This can be said about all positions. I usually have a handful of wide receivers and running backs I’m on in a particular week. What I try to do is create different combos with these players so that I have exposure to all of them in several spots, but also in different spots to protect myself from a potential dud game or any injuries a player suffers. For instance, this week I liked Brandon Marshall, A.J. Green, DeAndre Hopkins, Odell Beckham, Alshon Jeffery, and DeVante Parker. I created different combinations using these players so that I’m exposing myself to all of them, but not the same combinations in all my lineups so that I’m not leaving myself with no shot if something goes wrong.
As I’ve advised before, something I like to do is break down the roster of the winning lineups in tournaments I participate in. When I do this, my goal is to try and figure out their thought process along the way and how they came about choosing this lineup. This helps me see what I could have done different and if there was something or someone I may have overlooked. This week’s winning lineups consisted of Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin, and Odell Beckham Jr. in most instances. If you think about it, these were three chalk plays. Wilson was no doubt the best quarterback option this week if you take everything into account. He played against the Ravens who are not so good against the pass, had been playing well in recent weeks, and was reasonably priced. That being said, he was owned just 13 percent in the Millionaire Maker and less than 12 percent in just about every other GPP I played in. Don’t get me wrong, that’s not an extremely low ownership percentage, but I’ve see much higher ownership when a player is in this good of a spot. This led me to realize that sometimes we may be overthinking great spots and talking ourselves out of a potential great play due to our concern of potential ownership percentages. Don’t misunderstand me, it is very important to be contrarian in such larger fields, but finding the right spots to be contrarian is what we should be focusing on. After all, chalk is needed to win tournaments.
That’s all for Week 14. Good luck to all! See you next week.