Week 11 wrapped up on Monday night as the New England Patriots beat the Buffalo Bills to remain undefeated. We are now heading to Week 12 and it feels like this season has passed us by so quickly. I mean, there are just six games left in the regular season. The good news is that unlike your season long leagues that end in Week 16 (in most cases), DFS runs until right before the Super Bowl. So there is still plenty of fantasy football to play.
Something I really never considered in my season long leagues is to take a good look at a team’s situation towards the end of the season to see if they will be making any significant changes to their starting lineups. See, as season long league players, we have our roster and for the most part that’s usually what we stick to during the playoffs. In the NFL, certain teams may want to give some of their young prospects more playing time in the last couple of weeks of the season to see what that player can do. This usually happens with teams that are out of the playoff hunt. For example, if the Lions lose a couple of more games, chances are that they are likely out of the playoff picture.
If that ends up being the case, they can elect to feature their rookie running back Ameer Abdullah a bit more. If you think about it, he’s clearly the most talented back in this backfield, but his inability to hold on to the ball has cost him some playing time. However, if they don’t have a shot at the playoffs, his fumbling issues won’t hurt them as much and it might be better off for them to see if they have a potential full time back or not for the future. A good way to get this information is to follow beat writers, on Twitter or any social media outlet, and read local newspapers from all of the teams to see what they are reporting. Remember these are the people that sit through practices, have sources within the organizations, and look at everything that’s going on with the teams. You’d be surprised at how much information these beat writers and local newspapers provide readers. This could put you in a situation to potentially roster a player who is expected to see a larger role at a cheap price and possibly low ownership late in the season.
Sometimes season long league habits kick in and affect your decision making in DFS. When we play yearly leagues we deal with waiver wires and a limited player pool so we are not used to considering every option possible. This automatically programs us to focus on specific players because the options are scarce. You either consider a player that is already on your roster or a player on waivers. The beauty of DFS is that you have the entire player pool available to you on a weekly bases. This week, Eric Ebron was at a reasonable price and had a lovely matchup against the Raiders. I instantly placed all the attention on him and disregarded most other potential cheap options. That was a big mistake on my end as Ebron scored zero fantasy points and was a huge disappointment.
Now, before you think I’m being results-oriented, let elaborate. Concentrating on Ebron kept me from finding some of the other options near his price range and ultimately kept me from taking advantage of other great opportunities. It’s fine to like a player and have tons of exposure to him, but make sure to weigh out all of your options before finalizing your lineups. If you haven’t ran all scenarios possible while creating your lineups, you’re doing it wrong. As DFS players we tend to fall in love with a specific price, matchup, and situation which at times can cause us to miss a potential great spot to exploit. Remember, be open minded and take everything into consideration before making a final decision.
That’s it for this week. I realize that we are heading into Week 12 and I have yet to break down all the types of games and the strategies to take in each of those games. That’s what I’ll be going over next week. Until then, good luck to all this week!