As I sit here and watch this boring Monday Night Football game, I can’t help but think that in just a few months, I’d be wishing that there is any type of football on T.V. There are only four games left in the regular season and four weeks to enjoy full slates of NFL DFS. While our season long leagues are heading into the playoffs for most of us, DFS is still here for those who didn’t make it to their fantasy league’s post season. Last week I discussed the approach and strategy I use in the different types of games I play. This week I want to go over two things that I find can alter your thought process as you create lineups. Chasing points and recency bias. If you’re not familiar with what either of the two things are, let me explain.
Chasing points can be defined as rostering a player after one big week and not taking all factors into consideration. For example, let’s assume a player goes off for 20+ fantasy points in Week 13 and it’s not something that is common for this player. In addition, he also had good matchup and was reasonably priced. Then in the following week, the matchup isn’t as appealing and his price increases, but you roster him anyways. At that point you’re essentially chasing points. You see, if you look closely at the entire picture, you’d realize that this player was in a great situation and exceeded expectations, or in other words hit his ceiling in Week 13. However, if his price goes up and the matchup is not as good, that players basically loses value and rostering can be a mistake. This is where you use your football knowledge and realize that this player, while certainly capable of putting up big numbers, usually does not perform at this level and most of the time has a much more affordable salary. Understanding when a player hits his ceiling in a perfect spot and not reacting to that one game can certainly put you in an advantage long term.
You may have heard people talk about recency bias in DFS. In fact, I’ve mentioned the term in some of my previous articles. This is when people use recent performances, whether good or bad, as a determining factor in their line up construction the following week. That’s not entirely a bad thing, depending on how you’re using it. Let’s say Julio Jones underperformed in Week 13 and some of the other elite wide receivers did well, chances are Jones will be less owned the following week. That’s of course unless he has a matchup you can’t help but roster him in. But even then, it’s possible his ownership percentage would be lower than it normally would be in a situation like this. As humans we let emotion get in the way of decision making sometimes. If a player burns you, your instincts are instantly to fade him, and vice versa. Try to leave that emotion out the door when drafting your team, because this would actually be the time you want Julio Jones in your lineup. An elite wide receiver with one of the highest ceilings in the game at a lower than normal ownership percentage. The same can be said when players have several good games in a row and may be over owned. Let’s use Javorius Allen as an example. He’s done well in recent weeks and his price actually went down $100 after a 38 fantasy point game against the Dolphins. This week he faces off against the Seahawks who have a solid run defense despite not being as elite as they’ve been in past seasons. Chances are that he will still receive more interest than he should in this game because of his recent outburst and also the fact that his price remained reasonable.
Trust the process and do your research. Make sure to look at all the numbers before concluding your lineups and don’t let one game or recent performances fog up your judgment. There’s a reason we spend countless hours taking a bunch of data and stats into so consideration each week to come up with an educated conclusion in the players we choose.
Until next week. Best of luck to all in Week 14!