Another good TNF matchup on tap for Week 5, this time featuring an NFC West showdown between the Rams and Seahawks. Seattle (-130) is a two-point favorite at home, with the total set at 48.5. Here are some bets to consider:
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS. LOS ANGELES RAMS (8:20 P.M. ET)
Total Interceptions: Jared Goff OVER 0.5 (-167)
Goff’s had serious issues protecting the ball this season, with nine turnovers through four games. Six of those turnovers have been interceptions, including three last week against the Bucs. He’s been picked off in three out of the four games he’s played, including three times in his two road games — Goff’s road splits have been much worse over his career.
Seattle’s defense could be a little better when it comes to intercepting opposing QBs, with two through four games (it does have four fumble recoveries). Jadeveon Clowney did have a pick-six in Arizona last week, though, so the defense has proven capable of making the big plays that have hurt the Rams so much this season. Goff’s been picked off five times in his last four games against the Seahawks — three times in two games in Seattle, including twice in his visit there last season.
Total Rushing Attempts: Todd Gurley OVER 12.5 (-130)
This is an overreaction to Gurley’s absurdly low number of carries last week, which we can 100% blame on game script. The Rams blinked and were down 21-0, battling from behind for the entirety of the game. Gurley had just five carries and was all to finish drives by the goal line, with two going for touchdowns.
Gurley was still clearly a huge part of the game plan in terms of touches, bringing in 7-of-11 targets against Tampa Bay — the catches and targets were both more than he had in the first three games of the season combined. Gurley had at least 14 rushing attempts in each of those first three games, when the Rams relied on their usual offensive game plan. Over the last two years under Sean McVay, Gurley’s handled at least 14 carries in all four games against Seattle, averaging 18.25 rushing attempts per contest.
Total Receptions: Chris Carson OVER 2.5 (+100)
Carson is averaging 3.5 receptions per game, and that includes recording just one catch against the Saints in Week 3, prior to his benching. If you take the three games he’s played in full, he’s caught 13-of-14 targets, with at least three receptions in each game.
The Rams have allowed four receptions to the RB position in consecutive games. While Christian McCaffrey is a different animal, CMC caught 10 passes against this defense in Week 1. Getting even odds on such a low number feels like a very strong spot, with the lone downside being another benching due to fumble issues.
In the end, I think the Seahawks are the right side of this game. While the Rams have won three of the last four, Seattle’s covered four of the last five in this matchup. The performance in primetime games also has to be factored in, as this has been a spot Russell Wilson’s thrived in his career — 17-7-1 ATS in primetime games.
Both of these offensive lines have been poor this season, which makes me side with Wilson. DangeRuss has tremendous awareness in the pocket, which can still be a weakness for Goff. That’s been made clear in the turnover column this season — Goff has nine, while Wilson has one (a lost fumble). Those ball security numbers are enough to put me on Seattle at home on a short week.
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Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.
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