Even in Drew Brees’ (thumb) absence, we’ve got an awesome SNF game setting up here in New Orleans. The undefeated Cowboys (-165) come to down as three-point favorites in a game projected for 47 points. Here’s a breakdown of the fantasy plays.
Note: All salaries will be Flex prices unless noted as Captain’s Pick prices
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN SPOTLIGHT
New Orleans Saints
After a really poor game coming on in relief of Brees in Los Angeles, Teddy Bridgewater ($9,000) looked much better in the starting role in Seattle. While he’ll have the luxury of returning to the Super Dome, the matchup becomes much more difficult. Dallas ranks third in DKFP allowed to QB this season, and Bridgewater still managed just 16.28 DKFP in Week 3. New Orleans got a lot of production on the ground, and on special teams and defense to help shield the QB.
Michael Thomas ($9,200) is still a fair play, but his value obviously suffers without Brees. Thomas had 10 catches on 13 targets in each of the first two games of the season, combining for over 200 yards. In the first full week of Bridgewater at the helm, Thomas saw just seven targets, catching five for 54 yards. His day was saved by a his first touchdown of the season, but how can we justify paying for Thomas with other elite plays in this game that we can count on to get touches?
Ted Ginn Jr. ($4,200) started the season off with a bang, but has been silent since. Over the past two weeks, Ginn has seen just five targets, catching two for 15 yards. It feels like he’s a safe fade.
Taysom Hill ($2,600) is a very interesting target in this game. The Saints are very thin at WR, so they should use Hill a good amount in this game. We’ve seen Bridgewater complete passes to him, so he could be worth the $2,600 punt. While his role in the offense is nice, Hill comes with elite upside if Bridgewater doesn’t have a good game — Hill could wind up seeing more snaps at QB, which would be huge for just $2,600.
Jared Cook ($4,400) has had a really tough time with his new team, catching just five passes for 69 yards on the season. He’s worth considering purely on the matchup, as the TE position has really been the only one to hurt the Cowboys so far this season. Dallas has allowed the fourth-most DKFP to TEs, so maybe you can roster Cook as a contrarian play, given he’s been completely silent thus far.
Let’s be real, if you’re going to roster just one weapon on the Saints, you’re going to try and pay up for Alvin Kamara ($11,800). We had a scare in Week 2 when Kamara’s role fell apart with Bridgewater entering the game, but the Saints wisely showed us last week that featuring Kamara is still the game plan. He went for a 13-69-1 line on the ground, but more importantly brought in 9-of-10 targets for 92 yards and another touchdown — 37.1 DKFP. Kamara’s likely too expensive to captain, but as New Orleans’ do-it-all playmaker, he’s an extremely risky fade.
Latavius Murray ($3,200) isn’t worth much consideration outside of a GPP punt. We thought maybe the Saints would feature more of a run game with Brees out, but Murray saw just two carries in Week 3.
Dak Prescott ($11,200) is off to a tremendous start this season, averaging 29.5 DKFP. We can’t ignore the cupcake schedule (NYG, WAS, MIA) thus far, but things don’t get much more difficult in this game. While those are three of the worst secondaries in football, the Saints have actually allowed the most DKFP to QBs, thanks to a 40-plus DKFP outburst from Russell Wilson last week. This is a tremendous spot for Dak to keep rolling.
Amari Cooper ($10,200) remains the top option in the passing game, and should only see more volume while Michael Gallup (knee) remains out. The only slight concern for Cooper is that he’s seen just 12 total targets over the past two games, but he has four touchdowns in three games, and has a near perfect matchup.
Devin Smith ($5,200) has a lot of upside playing in Gallup’s role. He showed it in Week 2, catching all three of his targets for 74 yards and a touchdown, but faded a bit in Week 3, catching just two passes for 39 yards. The good news is that Smith saw five targets last week. If he sees a couple bombs thrown his way in this game, he has a ton of upside against the New Orleans secondary.
We can’t like every play on the Dallas side, and Randall Cobb ($7,000) just feels too expensive, despite the matchup. Not that Cobb doesn’t have the potential for a big game, but he’s been involved pretty minimally over the last two weeks. Cobb’s seven catches have gone for 47 total yards, and he’s been unable to top 24 yards in either game. Smith provides much higher upside for an $1,800 savings.
Jason Witten ($5,800) has been doing a lot with a little so far this season, but his luck is bound to slow down. He’s seen four targets in each game so far, and either topped 50 yards or scored in each game. But those two games he scored in, he went for just 40 combined yards. It’s a good matchup, but he needs to reach the end zone at this price to be worth rostering. It’s tough to see enough targets heading Witten’s way to have a big game.
Blake Jarwin ($1,000) is the TE I’d consider rostering on the Cowboys. Jarwin’s 5-64-1 line on the season is about half of Witten’s production, yet he’s nearly six times cheaper. This is a solid punt play that can really open up flexibility with your lineup.
You can use some of that flexibility to roster guys like Ezekiel Elliott ($11,600). The run defense is the strength of the Saints’ defense, but ‘Zeke generally proves to be matchup proof. He’s back to his full workload the last two weeks, averaging 21 DKFP on 23 touches per game. He’s due for that big breakout game, and could be poised for it on the national stage.
Don’t fall into the Tony Pollard ($4,800) hype in this one, though. His 13-103-1 line against the Dolphins was great. However, that was simply a product of facing the Dolphins. In more competitive games, Pollard’s struggled.
Final Score: New Orleans 23, Dallas 31
I think we see some scoring in an exciting game here, but in the end, Dallas is the more well-rounded team. It’ll get the defensive stops it needs, while finding ways to attack a vulnerable New Orleans defense. I think by rostering a kicker and another value play, you can find your way to roster one of the studs on this slate as your captain. My lead would be Dak Prescott CP ($16,800), since the Saints have had such trouble with opposing QBs this season.
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