Lamar Jackson

We are into the divisional round of the NFL playoffs, and this contest between the Ravens and Titans will be one of four different games you can play this week for Showdown. The Titans are coming off of a very impressive game in which they knocked off the team of the century in the Patriots. Can they continue their hot streak against the AFC’s top seed?

Note: All salaries will be Flex prices unless noted as Captain’s Pick prices

DIVISIONAL SHOWDOWN SPOTLIGHT

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SEVEN BETTING TRENDS

— The Ravens have won each of their last 12 games.

— The Ravens have covered the spread in each of their last seven games against AFC opponents.

— Each of the Ravens’ last four January games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.

— Derrick Henry has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Titans’ last five road games.

— Mark Andrews has scored a touchdown in five of the Ravens’ last six games as home favorites.

— Marquise Brown has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Ravens’ last two night games.

— Seth Roberts has scored a touchdown in each of the Ravens’ last two games as home favorites against AFC opponents.

Stats provided by DraftKings Sportsbook


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are a tough team to get a feel for overall, but there is one guy that you can count on showing up each and every time the team takes the field. Lamar Jackson ($13,600) will be named the league’s MVP, and put up an absolutely ridiculous season no matter how you slice it. He rested in Week 17, but in the other 15 games, Jackson went over 30 DKFP eight times. Keep in mind that he did this while sitting out numerous fourth quarters due to the Ravens being so dominant. There will be no such rest occurring in a playoff game unless the Ravens absolutely blow the doors off of Tennessee.

Where things get interesting right away is in the backfield, where Mark Ingram ($9,800) is still day-to-day with a calf injury. He was injured in the team’s Week 16 win over the Jets, then got the week off in Week 17 to rest. It looks as though he suffered a setback in practice. Should he fail to suit up, we would see some combination of Gus Edwards ($4,200) and Justice Hill ($1,600). Expect Edwards to shoulder the short-yardage and goal-line work, while Hill is the primary pass-catcher out of the backfield. Price would dictate Hill as the better play, but potential game-script could certainly provide a couple of touchdowns for whoever ends up the early-down grinder between Ingram or Edwards.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Ingram will be active tonight vs. the Titans.

The Ravens finished the year dead-last in pass attempts, but that ratio was likely at least somewhat influenced by the consistently positive game scripts Baltimore played in. When they pass, the primary target is Mark Andrews ($9,200), who leads the team with 23% of targets and 28% of air yards. He leads the league in the share of air yards for TEs. Marquise Brown ($7,600) is the only other Raven with more than 10% of team targets, and he sits at 18%.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Andrews will be active tonight vs. the Titans.


Tennessee Titans

Despite the lackluster showing last week, Ryan Tannehill ($10,200) has put together a fantastic year so far with the Titans. He has completed over 70% of his passes, and the QB averaged 9.6 yards per attempt. This is a much easier matchup than Tennessee had last week in the passing game. While Baltimore is still fourth in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA, they have roughly half of the DVOA percentage as the top-rated Patriots did (-24.6% to 12.7%).

The real star of the Titans right now is Derrick Henry ($12,200), who ran for 182 yards and a touchdown against New England, his sixth game in seven with over 100 yards and at least one score. The Ravens are far worse in run defense than the Pats (19th in DVOA), so expect the Titans to look to establish the run again in hopes of finding another upset. Henry should be one of the highest owned individual players in this game, so taking a stand on him could certainly lead to a contrarian lineup.

A contrarian build to this game most certainly includes a bit of the passing game. A.J. Brown ($8,600) has seen a bit of a price reduction after catching just one pass for four yards against New England. Baltimore also has as tough secondary, but not quite as good as the Patriots’. It’s a good opportunity to buy low on Brown. Corey Davis ($4,800) sees weekly volume, but he rarely turns it into fantasy points. He is an option in MME, but probably not someone worth playing in single-entry or cash-games.


THE OUTCOME

The Titans will likely have a clear game-plan in place for this one, but it will be difficult to establish the run if the Ravens can amount a sizable lead. The obvious Captain’s choice here is Jackson ($20,400), but I also like the idea of playing Brown ($12,900) who should be far lower owned as a Captain, is lower-priced, and could see considerable volume in the expected game-script. Tennessee had their moment in the sun in the first round, but Baltimore is the best team in football and will enforce its will on Saturday.

Final Score: Ravens 30, Titans 13

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