This could be a rough showdown slate to find fantasy points, with the Rams favored by six, and the total set at 40. Fantasy points will be at a premium, and some crucial injury news could also swing the slate. Here are the potential targets, and how to adjust to the news.

Note: All salaries will be Flex prices unless noted as Captain’s Pick prices


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Los Angeles Rams

Jared Goff ($10,000) is coming off an ugly game in Pittsburgh, scoring 10 or fewer DKFP for the third time this season. He really struggles against strong defenses and had one of his worst games of the season in Chicago last year. Goff would be a contrarian play on this slate.

If I’m paying up for a Ram, it’ll be for the PPR upside of Cooper Kupp ($10,600). It’s just too difficult to imagine Goff having any type of production without it being centered around Kupp. If you want to fade the Rams’ passing game, that’s also fine. Kupp has 5.7 DKFP combined in Goff’s last two busts, including a goose egg last week.

If you think the Rams will be playing from behind, Robert Woods ($8,600) is your tournament target. He went for 7-95-0 on 11 targets last week, but Woods does just have one touchdown on the season.

Editor’s Note: Woods will be inactive tonight vs. the Bears.

Josh Reynolds ($4,800) steps into the mix with Brandin Cooks (concussion) sidelined. Reynolds has brought in 6-of-13 targets in the passing game the last two weeks, going for 122 yards and a touchdown. He’s the best bargain in the Los Angeles offense.

Reynolds’ upside also hinges on the status of the TE position. Both Gerald Everett ($8,000) and Tyler Higbee ($1,800) are questionable, with wrist and knee injuries, respectively. Everett is egregiously overpriced in this spot, even with Cooks’ absence. He should make for an easy fade. But that does open up potential value in Higbee. This is something to monitor leading up to lock, as Chicago is the fourth-worst defense versus TEs this season.

The Bears’ run defense hasn’t been all that scary this season, but Todd Gurley’s ($8,800) game log has been. But we need to trust some offensive targets here, and we can at least guarantee touches with Gurley. We also get him at one of his cheapest showdown prices of the season, against a defense that ranks below average against RB.

Greg Zuerlein ($3,800) is actually one of my favorite value plays on the slate. A home favorite on a low-scoring slate should mean the kicker becomes a more valuable play.

Rams D/ST ($6,200) is expensive, but couldn’t ask for a better matchup. The Bears have been inept offensively at times, and face a hot D/ST — which has scored 49 DKFP in the last three games combined.


Chicago Bears

Mitchell Trubisky ($8,200) is an easy fade on any slate, including when there’s only two QB plays to chose from. The Rams rank fifth in DKFP allowed to QB this season, and Trubisky is hardly averaging 10 DKFP away from home.

That makes Allen Robinson ($9,400), a very good WR, tough to justify paying for. There’s some upside here, but I’d feel much better about finding the extra $1,000 for Kupp. Robinson caught one pass for six yards against a terrible Eagles’ secondary, which shows just how much of a bust he can be.

Taylor Gabriel ($6,600) is overpriced, but he has the safety of being targeting on quick passes. Normally Gabriel would be a fade here, but we need to spend money on some offensive options here, and Gabriel could make a game-changing play in this game.

Anthony Miller ($2,000) and Cordarrelle Patterson ($1,000) are punt play considerations, but they’re much more likely to provide zero return than they are to make a big play.

Injuries at the TE position leaves Ben Braunecker ($800) as a deep value. He’s rarely targeted but did turn his only look into an 18-yard touchdown last week. Maybe that earns him more looks. I’d prefer to roster Braunecker over the two WR punt plays.

David Montgomery ($9,000) is the biggest story on this slate, trending towards a game-time decision with an ankle injury. If he plays, frankly, he’s just priced too high, especially considering he’d be playing through injury. But if ruled out, Tarik Cohen ($5,000) suddenly becomes the top play on the slate. Adding 10 carries onto Cohen’s role as a pass-catcher would put him in line for a very high floor, considering his salary.

Editor’s Note: Montgomery will be active tonight vs. the Rams.

Eddy Pineiro ($3,600) and Bears D/ST ($5,400) are similar targets to the Rams’ side of things. Anytime we think a game is going to be this low scoring, the K and D/ST points just become worth more.


THE OUTCOME

I think this is going to be an ugly game, where kickers and D/STs are very much in play. You can even consider captaining K and D/ST plays if it helps your roster construction. But if Montgomery is ruled out, Tarik Cohen CP ($7,500) becomes the strongest option.

Editor’s Note: Montgomery will be active tonight vs. the Rams.

Final Score: Rams 18, Bears 16


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