After a pair of TNF games that came down to the wire the last two weeks, the Patriots (-1000) will host the Giants (+750) as 16.5-point favorites to kick off Week 6. It’s expected to be a rainy and windy night in Foxborough, which has the total bet all the way down to 42.5.
In addition, we have a lengthy injury report on both sides. The Giants have ruled out Saquon Barkley (ankle), Sterling Shepard (concussion), Evan Engram (knee) and Wayne Gallman (concussion). The Patriots have ruled out Phillip Dorsett (hamstring), and have Julian Edelman (chest), Josh Gordon (knee) listed as questionable. Rex Burkhead (foot) is also not expected to play, per Adam Schefter of ESPN.Z
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS. NEW YORK GIANTS (8:20 P.M. ET)
Away Team Points: NYG UNDER 12.5 (+102)
The Giants are coming off 10 points at home against a solid Vikings defense but will face their toughest test of the season by far on Thursday night. The Patriots’ defense is allowing 6.8 points per game through five games, holding every opponent to 10 points or less — outside of the Jets, who scored on special teams and defense.
Let’s look at the things Daniel Jones has going against him in this game — a rookie QB, on the road, on a short week, against the best defense in the league, with four of his top-five offensive weapons ruled out. I’ll be surprised if the Giants score a touchdown in this game.
Total TDs by Away Team: NYG UNDER 1.5 (-167)
Speaking of not being able to score a touchdown in this game, we can bet on the Giants scoring fewer than two, which gives us some cushion for a fluke play like Washington used to score on the Pats last week.
This is just another way to fade the Giants, who scored just one touchdown at home last week, with Engram and Shepard on the field. The Patriots’ defense has allowed two total touchdowns in five games this season. The Giants would have to pull a horseshoe out of their you-know-what to find the end zone twice in this game.
Total Passing Yards: Daniel Jones UNDER 224.5 (-143)Danny Dimes shredded the Bucs in his debut, but he has come back to earth since. He went for just 225 yards against Washington in Week 4, then threw for 182 last week at home against Minnesota. Sorry to continue beating the same drum, but now he’ll be on the road, on a short week, in bad weather and against a far superior defense. Oh, and did I mention Shepard and Engram are out? I just don’t see where Jones will be able to go with the ball against this defense.
Total Receptions: Golden Tate OVER 5.5 (+160)
The only place Jones will be able to throw the ball with any trust is Tate, who I think is worth a look here given the plus money. Assuming the Patriots get out to a lead, the Giants won’t be able to just stop throwing all together, and the only quality WR on the field should be Tate. He caught just 3-of-6 targets in his first game back from suspension, but Tate could see 10 targets in this one and runs very short routes — his three receptions last week went for 13 yards — which gives us a higher chance for completion. Jones’ pass completions number is set at 20.5, and it’s hard to imagine at least six of those wouldn’t be to Tate. This is the only angle I can think of to target the Giants, and +160 for six receptions would be a nice payout.
New England: -16.5 (-113)
If I’m trying to just make a play or two on this game, it’s the under on NYG TT and NYG TD scored. But if you want to play a side, I think anything under 17 on the Pats is reasonable. The Patriots are coming off a 26-point road victory in Washington, and while they’ll look to run the ball a lot in this one, the passing game should also see some success. The Giants’ secondary is awful, and I expect Tom Brady to be able to make a couple of big plays downfield to make the difference in covering the spread.
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