Marshawn Lynch

We are into the divisional round of the NFL playoffs, and this contest between the Packers and Seahawks will be one of four different games you can play this week for Showdown. Seattle won what was a pretty disappointing game against the Eagles, and one in which they knocked out quarterback Carson Wentz. Still, this should be a fairly competitive game with Green Bay, and one that could feature plenty of action.

Note: All salaries will be Flex prices unless noted as Captain’s Pick prices

OPTIONS TO CONSIDER

Set your lineups here: NFL $600K Sunday Night Showdown [$200K to 1st]


Three Betting Trends

— The Packers have won each of their last six home games against teams that held a winning record.

— The Seahawks have covered the spread in 10 of their last 12 games as underdogs.

— Seven of the Packers’ last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Stats provided by DraftKings Sportsbook


Showdown Strategy

Green Bay Packers

It has been a fairly disappointing season for Aaron Rodgers ($10,400), but it is worth noting that this matchup will not be particularly difficult for him and the Green Bay passing game on Sunday. The Seahawks rank a very average 15th in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA. Whether or not it will be enough to elevate Rodgers’ 7.0 yards per pass attempt in 2019 remains to be seen, but the cost is very reasonable for a Showdown QB.

The run game gets a bit murkier here, as Jamaal Williams ($5,800) returned from a shoulder injury for a full practice on Wednesday. He is expected to play on Sunday and should split the workload with Aaron Jones ($10,000) to some degree. In 12 full games with Williams this year, Jones has seen 55% of snaps, 13 carries, and 3.6 targets per game. But will he see such a drastic reduction in usage after back-to-back 100-yard rushing games? In a playoff situation, I would tend to believe Jones still sees significant volume, but there is certainly a lot more risk with selecting him now that Williams is back, especially at this price.

The passing game has one consistent star. Davante Adams ($10,800) has seen 29% of targets and 33% of air yards on the year, but with three different Green Bay players priced above $10K, you will need to make some decisions about who is most valuable. Adams is a natural pair with Rodgers, and it would make the most sense to require either that pairing or Jones separately in lineups. Allen Lazard ($6,000) and Jimmy Graham ($4,800) are the next-best viable pass-catchers. It would be wise to require one of them in lineups using Rodgers as a Captain if deciding to go that route.


Seattle Seahawks

Despite only winning 17-9 last week against Philly, Russell Wilson ($11,000) still managed to put together a quality fantasy day. He threw the ball 30 times for 325 yards and a touchdown, adding 45 yards on the ground. Wilson will be in a great position to exceed the 24.5 DKFP he posted in that game while facing Green Bay. It will be cold, in the low 20s at game time, but with just about no wind. These are still conditions NFL QBs have managed to find success in the past.

The backfield is an area to gain some leverage on the field. The Packers rank 23rd in rush defense DVOA, and we know that the Seahawks love to attack teams on the ground when they can. Travis Homer ($6,600) has been functioning as the lead runner but is in a position to lose more work to Marshawn Lynch ($6,800) due to his poor play last week. Homer managed just 12 yards on 11 carries against Philly, and while Lynch wasn’t really any better, he scored a touchdown in the second consecutive week and ripped off 25 yards on two receptions after not being used in the passing game at all in Week 17. He is my preferred Seattle RB and is a great play at this price.

D.K. Metcalf ($9,600) was the hero of the Wild Card round, but fantasy owners would be best off not forgetting about Tyler Locket ($8,600), who comes in at a cheaper price with lower expected ownership than his rookie teammate. These two wideouts have the same number of targets (22) over the past three weeks, which is how long they have played without Josh Gordon in tow. Jacob Hollister ($5,400) has 18 targets over that same time frame. Pairing two of these weapons with Wilson is viable, and you’ll probably want at least one in every lineup. The upside of Seattle pass-catchers is high given the elite efficiency of Wilson.


The Outcome

The game total on this contest has been trending upwards, which lends itself to a potential playoff shootout at Lambeau Field. I like Seattle to be able to get up, and force Green Bay to play from behind. That makes Lynch ($10,200) a viable Captain, as he tries to salt away the game for the Seahawks. He has multiple touchdown upside at a remarkably cheap captain’s price. On the other side of the game, Adams ($16,200) is the obvious and more expensive target for a captain. He has the potential to target a massive share of a passing game the Packers may need to lean on.

Final Score: Seahawks 28, Packers 24

Set your lineups here: NFL $600K Sunday Night Showdown [$200K to 1st]


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