What was supposed to be a matchup between two of the best QBs in the NFL becomes a much different story with Patrick Mahomes (knee) ruled out. The Packers come in as 4.5-point road favorites in a game that has some fantasy upside — projected total of 48.
Note: All salaries will be Flex prices unless noted as Captain’s Pick prices
Kansas City ChiefsMatt Moore ($8,000) is obviously a dicey play against a defense that ranks top-10 in DKFP allowed to the QB position. The upside is that he’s relatively cheap for a QB on a Showdown slate, and he did find Tyreek Hill ($10,000) for a deep touchdown after coming on for Mahomes last Thursday night. Moore’s a GPP play, but has a pretty low floor for cash.
All the Chiefs’ top weapons have seen their prices adjusted to play without Mahomes, but I don’t know if it’s cheap enough. Hill’s down $1,200, and Travis Kelce ($8,800) is down $1,000 — but is that enough of a discount to consider rostering them?
Hill did bring in the 57-yard TD from Moore last week, showing some upside for a big play, but if he fails to repeat that, there’s a very low floor here for a big chunk of salary. Kelce at least saw eight targets last week, but brought in six for a mere 44 yards. It’ll be very tough to trust these two for this much money.
The same can be said for Mecole Hardman ($5,400),Sammy Watkins ($5,800) and Demarcus Robinson ($4,200). None of these three have even been all that active with Mahomes lately, and the return of Watkins only jams up the WR roles even more for Kansas City. Target whichever value you’d like in GPPs, but there’s no way any of these three are trustworthy in cash.
I’ll target the running game from a Chiefs perspective, starting with LeSean McCoy ($6,600). Shady got 14 touches last week, and seems like the most trusted option in that backfield. Given the QB situation, the RB role should be as involved as is has been all season.
Damien Williams ($4,000) will be your other options, but we’ve seen his role diminish week after week. While he did see 11 touches last week (after just two the week before), he gained a grand total of six yards with them. Roster at your own risk.
Chiefs D/ST ($3,000) is a hard pass for me, while I think Harrison Butker ($3,400) is worth a shot for value.
Green Bay PackersAaron Rodgers ($12,000) is my favorite play on the slate. I don’t want to overreact to the 46.76 DKFP last week, but this offense did seem to find something, and the Chiefs haven’t been a defense that’s shown much resistance this season (outside of last week in Denver). You can still differentiate yourself in other spots.
Davante Adams ($10,200) is listed as doubtful, but if for some reason he’s out there, we can fade him at this price tag while he’s banged up.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($7,600) is coming off a huge 133-yard game with a touchdown, and has big-play potential. But note that he was targeted just three times, and got all that production on two huge catches.
Geronimo Allison ($4,800) might be a better value than MVS, saving almost $3,000. Allison’s been targeted at least five times in three straight games, and is a safer play for the savings.
Allen Lazard ($4,600) is still on the value radar, but it’s concerning he’s almost as pricey as Allison. The good news is that Rodgers likes this kid, and has vouched for him to remain in the mix offensively. He’s still a valid play at this price point.
Jimmy Graham ($6,200) stepped up big last week, bringing in all four of his targets for 65 yards and a touchdown. Kansas City has been much worse against the TE position than WR, ranking just 24th in DKFP allowed to TE. Graham is one of my favorite pass-catcher plays in this game to stack with Rodgers.
Aaron Jones ($9,200) and Jamaal Williams ($6,400) are both viable plays. The Chiefs rank just 23rd is DKFP allowed to RB, and Green Bay has two good ones. After a terrible Week 6, Jones got 16 touches last week, going for 18.3 DKFP. He can be trusted again, as can Williams. He still put up 13.1 DKFP on seven touches last week, and generally gets more work than that.
Packers D/ST ($4,400) and Mason Crosby ($3,800) are also solid value with a high point total, but a backup QB calling the shots for KC.
THE OUTCOMEI love this spot for the Packers. Their defense has played very well this season, and gets to face a backup QB that they get to prepare for. The offense is coming off an outburst against the Raiders, and while the Chiefs are coming off a strong defensive showing, this is a crusty defense to face. I think the slate offers the value to slide Aaron Rodgers CP ($18,000) into your captain spot.
Final Score: Green Bay 31, Kansas City 20
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