The Packers travel to San Francisco to face the 49ers in tonight’s Sunday Night Football contest. Against the spread, the Packers are one of the best against the spread with a 7-3 record while the 49ers sit at 5-4-1.
Note: All salaries will be Flex prices unless noted as Captain’s Pick prices
Green Bay PackersIt’s been a bit of an odd season for Aaron Rodgers ($10,000), who has an average of just 11.4 DKFP over his past two games against the Panthers and Chargers. Now he faces a 49ers defense that up until this point has allowed an average of just 12.5 DKFP, which is the second-lowest in the league. We’ve one seen only one QB throw for over 300 passing yards, which, of all people, was Andy Dalton back in Week 2. Rodgers has seen a significant drop in his YPA on the road at 6.8, which is quite the difference from a mark of 8.4 at home. However, the 49ers are missing some key guys on defense and could end up being a sneaky spot for Rodgers. He would be a really tough fade for me and one I think you really need to consider, even being the most expensive player on this slate.
Jamaal Williams ($6,600) should also be on your mind when building lineups, as he’s getting the majority of the passing work as of late, seeing 10 targets over his last three games. While the 49ers’ run numbers are good on paper, don’t let the overall take away from how poor it’s been lately. Aaron Jones ($9,600) is a worthy Captain’s pick as well.
Where the 49ers have remained solid is in their secondary. We don’t really have a matchup we want to specifically target for the Packers’ receivers, so it makes sense to stick with the pure volume receiver like Davante Adams ($9,400). Since returning from injury, he’s seen 21 targets over two weeks in which he’s caught 14 of them for 159 yards. He’s going to draw coverage from Emmanuel Mosley, who is allowing 13.1 YPR but only a 59% catch rate on 32 targets. Adams is Captain worthy in large field GPP games, as his tough matchup keeps him at that only. After Adams, it leaves us with Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4,000), Geronimo Allison ($2,800) and Allen Lazard ($3,200). None of these guys are very reliable, but Allison was the WR2 for the Packers last week against the Panthers. Even still, we haven’t seen him top four catches or 52 yards in a game. Lazard is coming off a six-target game but hasn’t had double-digit fantasy points in more than one game this season. Tough week for this group of receivers. The Niners have not let up anything to opposing tight end, allowing an average of 6.8 DKFP, which doesn’t bode well for Jimmy Graham ($4,400), who rarely exceeds more than three receptions in a game.
San Francisco 49ersJimmy Garoppolo ($9,800) is the second most expensive player on this slate and is coming off his best game of the season against the Cardinals. Scoring 34.7 DKFP, Jimmy G threw for 424 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions. Unfortunately, he now faces a Packers defense that’s been amongst the best against quarterbacks, allowing an average of 16.1 DKFP and 275 passing yards. Garoppolo has been a complete hit or miss, but having his full arsenal of weapons available will boost his usage. It’ll be pivotal, as the Packers have a solid pass rush and get a QB that when under pressure has just a 53% completion rate. Garoppolo is an interesting large field GPP captain.
Where the Packers struggle is on the ground and that will be one of the main focuses of my lineups. The Niners run on 49% of their offensive snaps and face a Packers defense allowing an average of 29.6 DKFP, 114 rushing yards and 42 receiving yards. Tevin Coleman ($9,000) should be a very strong play despite his struggles of late. This is by far one of the best matchups as of late after his 40.8 DKFP performance against another poor run defense like the Panthers. Coleman has also seen 12 targets over the past three weeks, making him a Captain worthy play. Raheem Mostert ($4,200) is a way to save some salary and should continue to get some work in with Matt Breida sidelined. Jeff Wilson ($2,400) was mostly regulated to special teams in Week 11, but did catch a 25-yard touchdown pass. It’s a total dart throw, but he’s someone that has scored five times in some sick and twisted way.
The biggest news out of the Niners’ receivers is that George Kittle ($8,400) looks as if he’s going to play despite a broken bone in his ankle. The Packers are amongst the worst teams against tight ends, allowing an average of 15.2 DKFP and 62 receiving yards. The risk of Kittle aggravating his ankle is certainly a concern, but his target share is massive when he’s on the field, averaging 7.1 in the eight games he’s played. Emmanuel Sanders ($8,800) is also expected to be active. Since joining the Niners, he’s averaging 5.7 targets and 48.5 yards per game. I like his matchup in coverage against CB Tramon Williams, who is allowing 12.8 YPR on 19 receptions and a 61.3% catch rate. I think Sanders is a very interesting Captain’s play as well, but comes at the risk of re-injury. If you want a punt at receiver, Kendrick Bourne ($4,600) has eight catches for 73 yards over the past two weeks. He gets a bump down with Sanders back in the mix so Bourne will be a bit limited.
THE OUTCOMEFinal Score: Packers 23, Niners 21
I imagine this game will be very, very close but I think the Packers on the road squeak out the win. The losses defensively for the 49ers will end up being their biggest downfall, giving way to a Packers victory. I do like Tevin Coleman ($13,500 CP) as a Captain’s pick for the reasons mentioned above.
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