Identifying wide receiver targets by grouping the WR options for Week 10 based on matchups, recent production and more.
Looking for a different position? Check out the rest of the positional targets:
Cream of the Crop
Brandon LaFell, New England (at NYG) – $4100
The Pats clearly want to get LaFell involved in the offense. He hasn’t seen fewer than seven targets in any of his three games this season, catching five passes for 102 yards last week. I’d normally say this is a cash-game-only play on an offense that spreads the ball around so much, but the Pats as a whole possess so much upside that LaFell is probably worth a look in GPPs, too.
Allen Robinson, Jacksonville (at BAL) – $6700
Over the past year, only two defenses—the Eagles and Steelers—have allowed more points above salary-based expectation to opposing receivers than the Ravens. At his price, Robinson is extremely consistent; he has four straight games in which he’s exceeded his implied points based on his cost.
Stefon Diggs, Minnesota (at OAK) – $5100
Diggs is coming off really his first poor performance of the year, though he saw at least nine targets in each of the four prior games. Last week’s matchup with the Rams was sub-par, but now Diggs is back in a good spot in Oakland. He’s another candidate for cash-game use who might not have as much tournament value, due to both a lack of offensive upside for Minnesota and high probable ownership.
Demaryius Thomas, Denver (vs KC) – $7400
Thomas’s salary has now dropped four straight weeks and is $1,700 cheaper than what it was to start the season. The Chiefs have one of the league’s worst defenses against opposing wide receivers, and Thomas has been extremely unlucky in many statistical categories this year, most notably red zone performance.
Middle of the Pack
Michael Crabtree, Oakland (vs MIN) – $5800
Crabtree has 12 targets, seven receptions, and over 100 receiving yards in each of the past two games, including two scores last week. His salary has jumped because of that—up $900 over last week—but I’d argue this is a case when a player is offering less value than before, yet still underpriced. Amari Cooper’s presence opposite Crabtree ensures he’ll see lots of single-coverage.
Alshon Jeffery, Chicago (at STL) – $7100
Jeffery is in a tough matchup, but the Bears are going to rely on him with Matt Forte out, as they’ve demonstrated by throwing him the ball 31 times over the past two weeks. Jeffery has scored a touchdown or gone over 100 yards in nine of his past 11 games dating back to last season. Tough matchup or not, this is a cheap price to get an elite receiver.
Randall Cobb, Green Bay (at DET) – $6700
The bad news is Cobb had only four receptions last week and didn’t top 10 fantasy points in any game over the prior month. The good news is he saw 12 targets—albeit somewhat due to game script—and there’s no reason to think the Packers won’t utilize him more often moving forward. Green Bay is projected at a healthy 29.3 implied points, though it’s worth noting they’re 11.5-point favorites and tend to play semi-conservatively when ahead.
Rueben Randle, NY Giants (vs NE) – $3900
Selecting Randle is a risk. He’s probably underpriced at $3,900 and the Giants are likely going to be throwing the ball a lot against the Pats, but it’s still the Pats and the G-Men are projected modestly. What Randle has going for him is the narrative; New England typically takes away the opposition’s top weapon—which in this case is clearly OBJ—meaning Randle might be a beneficiary.
Rest of the Field
A.J. Green, Cincinnati (vs HOU) – $7600
Due to the way the Bengals run their offense, Green seems to be a high-variance selection. When defenses aren’t committed to doubling him, Cincy gets him the ball early and often—and frequently in the form of quick screens. When he’s doubled, Andy Dalton doesn’t force it to Green and the offense looks elsewhere for production.
Golden Tate, Detroit (vs GB) – $4600
I’m not a huge Golden Tate fan overall, but I do like the probability of him seeing double-digit targets as Green Bay gets ahead and doubles Megatron. One problem I have is that I don’t trust Tate in cash games, but I don’t think he has a ton of GPP upside, either—a situation in which value is overrated.
Julian Edelman, New England (at NYG) – $8200
Edelman is the opposite sort of player from Tate because he’s incredibly consistent, and thus it’s okay to overpay for him at times. I do think $8,200 is probably too pricey relative to his median projection, but what you’re paying for is the floor; he’s extremely unlikely to score fewer than 10 (and probably 15) fantasy points, and thus he’s valuable in cash games.
Emmanuel Sanders, Denver (vs KC) – $7300
Sanders is in a similar situation to last week, priced just below teammate Demaryius Thomas. That will lead most to utilize Thomas in tournaments, which is what happened last week when he was at 21 percent ownership and Sanders at just around four percent. While Thomas might be the better value and offer more upside, Sanders is the better GPP option if those percentages repeat themselves.
Jonathan Bales is the author of the Fantasy Sports for Smart People book series, and most recently Fantasy Football for Smart People: How to Win at Daily Fantasy Sports.
Follow him @BalesFootball.