Week 16 Whack-A-Mole, where we’ll look at a group of players who have had some recent success and try to gauge just how likely they are to keep that trend going. Recency bias is a huge factor in daily fantasy decision making, so which players should you chase and which should you fade? Find out right here.
Jeremy Hill ($4900) – FADE
This time last year, Jeremy Hill was a rookie, leading the NFL in rushing during the second half of the season. Aside from his 11 touchdowns, Hill has only rushed for 635 and has been absent from the passing game. With Giovani Bernard healthy, his role has been primarily in short yardage situations and at the goal line. Hill’s matchup last week against the 49ers was ideal but if we took away his two touchdowns the numbers would be gross. This week he will face the Broncos who have the best run defense in the league and are coming off a week where they limited DeAngelo Williams to just 26 yards. He is too touchdown dependent and only a super contrarian tournament play this week. I’ll pass.
Lions Running Backs – CHASE
Ameer Abdullah-$3,800, Joique Bell $4,000- Theo Riddick $4,100
The Lions have an ultimate committee of running backs with a mixture of old, young, and third down specialists. For week 16, I’m not advocating for people to use all of these names mentioned, but one of these running backs is going to hit value. While is seems like Theo Riddick is the smartest play amongst this platoon, he was the only back of the three that failed to score against the Saints. The Lions face the 49ers at home this week in a meaningless game. The 49ers have allowed 18 rushing touchdowns (tied for most allowed) and are allowing 128.6 yards per game. This situation is confusing and I’m not opposed to avoiding it completely. The matchup is enticing though with as bad as the Niners are against the run.
Jermaine Kearse ($3,200) – CHASE
Jermaine Kearse has caught 14 passes for 184 yards the last two weeks for the Seahawks. Historically, this has been a football team that has relied on the running game to be successful. The loss of Marshawn Lynch, Jimmy Graham, and Thomas Rawls, the Hawks have taken a more vertical approach recently. Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett have been incredible over the last couple weeks. Kearse surprisingly led the team in targets in week 15. Kearse has 18 targets in the last two games and will be the cheaper and less popular play.
Rueben Randle ($3,500) – CHASE
Odell Beckham is going to miss a game and whether that is this week or next week is still to be determined. At any rate, Beckham faces a ton of double coverage and schemes to limit his big play ability. The beneficiary is typically Rueben Randle. Randle has three touchdowns in his last four weeks and with Beckham sidelined his role could increase substantially. This week the Giants will face the young star corner back Xavier Rhodes and the Vikings who have given up 21 touchdowns through the air. Randle’s production has been steady making him a cheap cash game play, but his ceiling could raise in the absence of Odell Beckham.
Anquan Boldin ($3,700) – CHASE
Anquan Boldin is another player that I will call seemingly ageless. In the offseason, we gravitate towards the new/sexier names and in the end the Boldin’s of the World have the best stat lines. In week 15, Boldin caught 8-of-10 targets for 74 yards and a touchdown. On an anemic 49ers offense, Boldin could be force fed for the duration of the season. His matchup with Lions corner back Darius Slay is a little concerning but his price is just too good to pass up especially in GPP’s. He’s not the guy he used to be, but none of us are I suppose. Blaine Gabbert will be trailing most likely and forced to drop back thus creating plenty of targets for Boldin.
James Jones ($4,000) – FADE
James Jones is a great story. From trials and tribulations on and off the field, he is everything a fan wants in an athlete. A decent guy who works hard at his craft and perseveres. Jones had six touchdowns in the first six games of the season and then vanished. His targets go up and down weekly and it is probably a result of the up and down season Aaron Rodgers is having. Jones caught six of nine targets last week for 82 yards and a touchdown. It may be tough sledding for James against Patrick Peterson and the Arizona Cardinals on the road.