Everyone knows the high priced stars that they’d love to load their lineups with, but you’ll need low-priced value plays to make it all work. Let’s look at who that might be for Week 9.
First, let’s see what did and didn’t work in Week 8.
THINGS THAT WORKED IN WEEK 8:
1) Jay Cutler – 19.54 – It was good to have Alshon Jeffery back. Very good.
2) Darren McFadden – 17.3 – Replaced Joseph Randle so hard that he was released.
3) Stefon Diggs – 21.5 – Special!
4) Nate Washington – 17.4 – Got hurt scoring a TD, our kind of guy.
THINGS THAT DIDN’T WORK IN WEEK 8:
1) Marvin Jones – 3.4 – Liked his matchup, hated the result.
2) Ladarius Green and Stevie Johnson – 2.0 and 4.2 – Antonio Gates came back and just wrecked everything.
3) Ryan Fitzpatrick and Larry Donnell – 3.04 and 3.2 – Players with owies hurt us all.
4) Danny Amendola – 2.1 – Like a boxer who can’t stay away, I came back and tried to call that Patriot WR who would be successful and failed. I retire again.
Anyway, on to Week Eight while I copy and paste Stevie Johnson’s name. Contact me @JasonWalker_72 with any other value questions through the rest of Week 9.
Marcus Mariota ($5,300) – It’s becoming real simple: Find the lowest rated pass defense in the league, the New Orleans Saints, and pass against them, over and over again. I would hesitate if it were Zach Mettenberger again, but if it’s Mariota, who’s had three games out of five over value already this season.
Jameis Winston ($5,200) – Winston has hit value five our of seven weeks and get the Giants, who are 25th ranked against the pass. The game total is 48, the Bucs are only a 2.5 point underdog and they are playing at home. Plus, Winston should be getting Austin Seferian-Jenkins back this week, too which adds to his targets.
Tyrod Taylor ($5,300) – Maybe you forgot about the Tygod Taylor that made value three out of five games, including three games over 23 DK points. There’s a caveat here about playing the second game against a divisional rival, which usually deflates performance a bit, but the Dolphins are bottom ten, the Bills are at home and the team is juiced about getting Taylor back, so I’m good with him at 5.3K.
Darren McFadden ($4.300) – Now that a majority of people have shed their long term McFadden bias and grudges and acknowledge that he’s the man in Dallas and has looked fairly good doing it, this will be the time that he Lucys everybody and either gets hurt or has a 12 carry, 16 yard day. Against the Eagles and their seventh ranked defense, it’s possible, but the Cowboys have nobody else to lean on in that offense, so at 4.3K, with volume he should get, here he is.
C.J. Spiller ($3,100) – Usually someone who inherits playing time due to injury is quickly adopted and jumped on by the industry….but maybe not this time. Coming into the season it looked as if the Saints had brought Spiller in to be the Reggie Bush/Darren Sproles role, but that didn’t materialize. But with Kyrie Robinson out, who was playing around 20 snaps a game, just like Spiller, Sean Payton has been public about using Spiller more. If he gets the Robinson role in addition to his own role, at 3.1K he should make value fairly easily against the Titans.
Jonathan Stewart ($4,300) – The workhorse has been grinding and made value again last week behind his 24 carry, 84 yard, one touchdown effort. He’s seventh in the league in carries, has one of the five worst run defenses so far this season in the Packers at home in a 46.5 game total that’s carrying less than a three point spread.
Jeremy Langford ($4,000) – As I’ve said in this space before, just because someone inherits a juicy role from a top player doesn’t automatically transfer the fantasy points therein to them. Matt Forte is likely going to miss this game against San Diego and Langford is the guy. Initially, Langford grades out well by PFF standard as a runner, but won’t be the pass catcher that Forte is. He won’t need to be great against a last place Chargers run defense. The game is a 49 game total in San Diego and the Bears are dogs, but close dogs. If Langford sees 75% of the action, he clears the 12 DK points needed here.
Stevie Johnson ($3,200) – This feels like a trap. Keenan Allen is out so plug in Stevie Johnson and count all the monies. Maybe. I had Johnson in here last week when it looked like Gates would not play since Johnson typically works the same part of the field as Gates, but Gates is back. It may not be safe to assume that, with Allen out, Johnson gets all of Allen’s action, but a rise in an already active six target a game role makes a value game likely for Stevie. The game is also at home, the Chargers can’t run and the Bears are awful against the pass. Johnson is also slated by PFF to have one of the better DB matchups this week against Sherrick McManis. So even though we don’t need many reasons at 3.2K to go for someone like Stevie, we have some anyway.
Ted Ginn, Jr. ($3,500) – Watch the Panthers games and you’ll see that Ginn is heavily featured in the game plan. He’s a double-dip candidate every game (WR + KR) and Ginn is averaging over six targets per game. He’s made value in four of his seven games and the Panthers are slight dogs at home against the Packers. His matchup isn’t stellar, but at 3.5K and given his roles on this team, he’s a solid value play in tournaments.
Brandon LaFell ($3,200) – Ok, I said I wouldn’t come back here, but here I am with another secondary Patriots receiver in the value area. I can’t help it. The offense is so profound and LeFell’s activity when on the field insists that he be included here. The Patriots are carrying a gaudy 33 point team total into this one and they aren’t the type to let off the gas with a lead.
Justin Hunter ($3,000) – And here’s the other trap I always fall for. I have Mariota in the value QBs so why not the ever disappointing Hunter, who is minimum priced? He’s carrying a top ten DB matchup, per PFF, against Brandon Browner, the game is a 48 pointer and they are going to have to throw against the woeful Saints pass defense.
Davante Adams ($3,900) – I needed a fifth and Adams price is low considering his role in the Packers offense when healthy. Huge caveat here is if Josh Norman ends up over the top of Adams, which is possible. If Randall Cobb is in the slot, that’s not an area Norman usually chases a receiver into, leaving Adams as a possible Norman target. If that happens, all bets are off. If Norman is elsewhere, that raises Adams’ profile significantly, so I’ll be watching, and Tweeting, whenever that news passes.
Heath Miller ($2,700) – I seriously considered our old reliable Miller last week but wasn’t sure about Big Ben being fully back. He was and Miller saw his usual huge supply of safety valve passes from Roethlisberger to the tune of a 13 target, 23 DK point week. Nothing changes this week as the Steelers face the Raiders.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins ($2,800) – It was brief, but ASJ’s quick relationship with Winston was obvious and now, as an underdog at home in a 48-point game total tilt against the seventh worst pass defense of the Giants, it seems like a good time to pick that relationship back up. Also, per Football Outsiders, the Giants rank 23rd in defending the tight end.
Benjamin Watson ($4,000) – So if you don’t want either of the two obvious values, then go ahead and take Watson, who has filled in nicely to the vacated Jimmy Graham tight end targets. Watson has 27 targets and over 70 DK points over the last three weeks, so Watson’s 4K price tag still looks small up against that production.
New Orleans Saints ($2,200) – Tennessee pass protection is dead last, according to Football Outsiders, and while I do believe that Mariota will pass enough to make value up above, that doesn’t mean the Saints, who are a touchdown favorite, won’t get to make some plays along the way.
Denver Broncos ($3,000) – Next in line behind the Titans in bad pass blocking are the reeling Colts. Who has the best pass rush in football. The Denver Broncos. Giddy-up.