WATCH: VALUE ALERT – GOLDEN TATE
Everyone knows the high priced stars that they’d love to load their lineups with, but you’ll need low-priced value plays to make it all work. Let’s look at who that might be for Week 7.
Values here are $5.5K and below for QBs, under $5K for RB/WR, under $4K for TE and under $3K for DEF. Contact me with any questions on Twitter @JasonWalkerDFS.
Colin Kaepernick ($5,300) – I didn’t list him last week because the matchup wasn’t great and we weren’t sure how Chip Kelly was going to use him. The matchup was, in fact, not great as it turned out, but there was Kaepernick making over 3x value anyway. Now he’s home, has a better game script and a defense in Tampa that dares the QB to beat them. Without Carlos Hyde available, Kaepernick will have every opportunity to do just that.
Tyrod Taylor ($5,500) – Not as strong of an endorsement as last week, where he went 4x against the Niners in Buffalo, but with LeSean McCoy ailing, Taylor would likely be asked to pick up even more of the slack. The Dolphins are giving up 17 DKPPG to opposing QB, unadjusted to strength of schedule, so Taylor has some value floor there at his $5.5K salary.
Cody Kessler ($5,000) – Highly contingent on Terrelle Pryor being available, Kessler will be under duress against a Bengals pass rush that’s improving as his own offensive line is leaking in pass protection. However, the game script will have Kessler throwing, and the Bengals pass coverage is ranked 23rd overall by Football Outsiders.
Jacquizz Rodgers ($4,300) – After 30+ touches, Rodgers will again fly solo in the Buccaneers backfield that heads into the fast paced 49ers home. The Niners have given up the third most opponents plays per game this season and the Bills just got through shredding their defense once again. The Niners rank 28th in overall run defense efficiency and 29th in Football Outsiders’ (FO) adjusted line yards.
Mike Gillislee ($3,000) – If McCoy is out against the Dolphins then the very capable Mike Gillislee takes over and at the minimum, won’t need to do much to make his number. In limited action this season, he has a 65% DVOA per FO.
Matt Jones ($4,200) – Everybody looks good on Washington this week as they take on the defense-optional Lions. Jones is coming off a stellar game against the (gulp!) Eagles and now takes on the team with second worst defensive line in adjusted line yards. He’s the fourth best running back this year by DVOA on FO.
LeGarrette Blount ($4,900) – Patriots are huge favorites against the Ben-less Steelers, and while Tom Brady’s return has made James White ($4,600) relevant again, I see a volume of carries for Blount with the Patriots winning and some extra incentive towards the Steelers for Mr. Blount. #revenge
WATCH: PAT MAYO MAKES HIS CASE FOR JACQUIZZ ROGERS AS A STRONG VALUE PLAY
Adam Humphries ($3,000) – Humphries steps into the alternate WR option slot that Vincent Jackson has now vacated due to his injuries. Humphries has already demonstrated he can handle a high volume of targets from QB Jameis Winston, and they get the higher pace game against San Francisco.
Jamison Crowder ($4,300) – A leverage play against fellow low priced WR Pierre Garcon ($3,900) against the poor, poor defense of the Lions. Crowder still leads the team in red zone targets and has the better individual matchup among Washington pass catchers this week.
Tyrell Williams ($4,400) – Huge projected game total (53 as of this writing) and potential injury to Travis Benjamin (knee) makes Williams an even more attractive option than he was before. The only caveat is how much Desmond Trufant he will see, but he should get volume in this potential shootout.
Mohamed Sanu ($4,400) – Sanu is in the same shootout, and has the better individual matchup himself, along with 16 targets over the past two weeks and the only red zone targets among the Falcons wide receivers the past two weeks.
Michael Thomas ($4,700) – In the two road Saints games this season, Thomas has produced five and nine targets, the nine being week 4 against the Chargers. He has the best individual matchup among the pass catchers in New Orleans and a game script that calls for Drew Brees to throw a lot to keep up with his leaky defense.
Jack Doyle ($2,500) – With Dwayne Allen still on crutches Wednesday, Doyle, who has only five fewer targets than Allen this season already, takes on more of a role on a team that has the fourth most passes per game and sixth highest pass play percentage.
Cameron Brate ($2,900) – Brate gets a pace boost here in SF, may be the second option now that Vincent Jackson is on IR and has six red zone targets over the last three weeks.
Hunter Henry ($3,600) – Henry has been tutored by Antonio Gates, who is still hobbled, and been targeted by the future HOF TE to take the torch. Henry has TDs in his last three games and should be in the middle of a shootout in Atlanta.
Baltimore Ravens ($2,800)- The Ravens top ten defense takes on turnover machine Geno Smith this weekend. They may be highest scoring defense of the week, regardless of value.
Tennessee Titans ($2,400) – The Colts’ pass protection has slipped more and more every week, now 30th in FO’s adjusted sack rate metric, nearly matching their status as having the most sacks allowed this season.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.