Everyone knows the high priced stars that they’d love to load their lineups with, but you’ll need low-priced value plays to make it all work. Let’s look at who that might be for Week 7.
First, let’s see what did and didn’t work in Week 6.
Things That Worked in Week 6:
– All the QBs: Blake Bortles (28.9), Colin Kaepernick (25.6), Brian Hoyer (24.2), Jay Cutler (21.3)
– Lamar Miller (22.8)
– Lance Moore (24.6)
– Marvin Jones (24.5)
Things That Didn’t Work in Week 6:
– Charcandrick West (3.8 – When guaranteed snaps goes wrong.)
– Carlos Hyde (8.0 – Kaep to Boldin gobbled up the goodness.)
– Willie Snead (9.5 – Still very close to 3x, but not enough with all the other values.)
– Leonard Hankerson (7.7 – Falcons laid a huge egg in the Big Easy.)
Anyway, on to Week Seven while I keep telling myself to steer clear of the Dallas RB situation. …Contact me @JasonWalker_72 with any other value questions through the rest of Week 7. Good luck!
Brian Hoyer ($5,300) – Not many of the models like Hoyer this week against the Dolphins, but I’m still buying. Hoyer has scored 17.28, 23.88 and 24.22 in his last three games. The Fins have switched coaches and turned Cameron Wake loose, but they have been poor in coverage this season and the Texans are ninth in pass protection, per Football Outsiders. The Texans haven’t run blocked well, so they will likely do what they do best, and that’s pass, pass, pass.
Marcus Mariota or Zach Mettenberger ($5,400 or $5,000) – Either one of these guys should be able to have some fun with the Falcons bottom ten pass defense. The Falcons defensive line is good against the run but doesn’t get much pass rush, leaving the Titans to focus on the pass to catch up to Devonta Freeman and the ATL.
Lamar Miller ($4,600) – I think most people are going to roster our stud from two weeks ago, Todd Gurley, but he’s outside our super value range, graduating to 5K. So we go back to the Lamar-a-thon this week after a stellar showing in his first post-coaching change game last week. They are home in Miami and should have a lead to run against the Texans. Miller’s price and likely 20 touch game provides good floor for a great price.
Theo Riddick ($3,400) – Detroit can’t run the ball, or defend, so they’ll pass and Riddick is the pass catching back in the Lions offense. He has 35 targets in the last four games and got seven carries last week against the Bears, too. Minnesota is 28th in pass coverage against running backs, giving Riddick the opportunity to make value once again.
Jonathan Stewart ($4,000) – Not crazy about the matchup at all, given that the Eagles are a top five run defense, but the Panthers are at home and are 3.5 point favorites, meaning Stewart can be in line for another 20 carry afternoon game. He has 13 red zone carries and four goal line carries this season, so while his ceiling is lower because of Cam Newton, Stewart will get his chances. Stewart’s price has also dropped $1,800 over the last month and that, plus regular volume usually equals value.
Darren McFadden ($3,100) – Ok, I couldn’t stay away. Christine Michael and Joseph Randle will split the run down plays, but the game script likely calls for the Cowboys playing catchup, which is where McFadden has filled in nicely for our guy, Lance Dunbar. McFadden had 10 targets in his last game (nine catches) and while Matt Cassel is coming in, he can check down, too. And when he does, McFadden will be there.
Robert Woods ($3,300) – As mentioned in the Tyrod section above, the Bills are without Percy Harvin for sure and most likely without Sammy Watkins, leaving…not much at wide receiver. Woods is a capable receiver who can get it done when given more volume, as evidenced by his 11 target, 29.8 DK point game last November against the Jets.
Justin Hunter ($3,000) – I want to believe, really I do, but Hunter has teased us before with no payoff. We’ve been waiting for the Justin Hunter Game longer than Linus has been waiting for the Great Pumpkin, and it may be just as fictional. Still, the Titans should throw against the Falcons and they have a bottom ten pass defense. With Hunter at minimum price…..once more with feeling.
Mike Wallace ($4,200) – The Lions aren’t a good pass defense and Wallace is poised for a strong game as long as Teddy Bridgewater can get him the ball. The Lions have given up 91 yards per game to opposing WR1 and are susceptible to the deep ball.
Michael Floyd ($3,200) – As with most of these deep value picks, this is for GPP and adult swims only. Carson Palmer should be a fairly popular play this week, and with good reason as the Ravens are having trouble stopping the pass lately. Floyd played 54 of 72 snaps last week and only 11 fewer than John Brown, so he’s a regular part of what the Cardinals are doing, meaning while his targets will fluctuate, he’s got the potential for a huge game. At 3.2K, in a prime matchup with a solid role, this is a steal.
Willie Snead ($4,300) – Not a reflex action to put Snead in here, especially since his price jumped $1,000 since last week. Yikes. The Saints got out to an unexpected lead against the Falcons last week and Snead’s targets were limited to five and he still touched value. This week, on the road at Indianapolis, it should be more like the Eagles game, where Snead had 11 targets, 23.1 points and we all toasted to his brilliance. I’ll leave you with this: According to PFF, Snead has the second best WR vs. CB matchup (Darius Butler).
Charles Clay ($4,300) – You can make the case to spend $800 more and roster the new and improved Antonio Gates against Oakland. But since Gates is in the 5K club, we’ll tab Clay, who has had 36 targets over his last four games. With only he and Robert Woods as established receiving threats down the field, Clay’s targets should be in the 10-13 range like the last two of three games. Jacksonville is 30th against the tight end marrying the opportunity with little resistance.
Coby Fleener ($3,000) – A foray into the other side of the top over/under game of the week (vs. NO, 52 total points), Fleener is inconsistent but viable given the strong showing of Andrew Luck last Sunday and his history with Luck. Also, New Orleans is dead last in pass coverage efficiency against the tight end. The last time the Colts faced a similar situation was three weeks ago against the Jaguars, and Fleener lit them up for 9/83/1 for 23.30 DK points.
Delanie Walker ($3,900) – With our thinking going along the lines of the Titans passing, then Walker and his seven targets per game needs to be in the mix here. He’s also tied with Greg Olsen for fourth place in fantasy points per pass route among tight ends. Lastly, the Falcons are in the bottom half of the league at pass coverage efficiency against the tight end.
San Francisco 49ers ($2,100) – Going so low worked so well last week with the Browns, we’re back for more this week. The Seahawks give up the most sacks of any team this season (26). That standing will be put to the test as the 49ers have only sacked the QB nine times so far this season.
St. Louis Rams ($2,400) – Love this play as the Rams are third in sack rate while the
Browns are 26th in preventing sacks. This is where I am going as long as I don’t need the $300 that I’d save going to the Niners.