WATCH: VALUE ALERT – CAM MEREDITH
Everyone knows the high priced stars that they’d love to load their lineups with, but you’ll need low-priced value plays to make it all work. Let’s look at who that might be for Week 6.
Values here are $5.5K and below for QBs, under $5K for RB/WR, under $4K for TE and under $3K for DEF. Contact me with any questions on Twitter @JasonWalkerDFS.
Tyrod Taylor ($5,300) – So much to unpack here. Taylor has made value at his low $5Ks number for the last three weeks, even at New England and against Arizona. The 49ers have given up 46 and 37 points in their two away games this season and they are making the long trek to Buffalo here. In those games, they gave up 34.82 points to Cam Newton and 19.42 to Russell Wilson.
Brock Osweiler ($5,400) – The Colts are second worst against the pass this season, and that includes the time Vontae Davis has been back. Indy has the second worst pass rush according to Football Outsiders, so Brock will have time to find DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller this week. They have an implied 24.5 points as well.
Andy Dalton ($5,500) – Dalton has been good this season, efficiency-wise, with a top 10 ranking on Football Outsiders and the pass game is where the Patriots have been weakest, ranked 27th by the aforementioned Outsiders. The game script should also be in the passing game’s favor, and it looks as if both A.J. Green and Brandon LaFell will have positive individual matchups.
Ryan Mathews ($4,900) – Washington is the second worst team against the run this season, so far, and Mathews is first in line to take advantage this week, after getting 11 carries and 16 touches overall in Week 5.
Giovani Bernard ($4,600) – Though Jeremy Hill may play, his injuries could very well still limit him. So, Bernard could have the majority of snaps and touches for a Bengals team that will have to throw, which is Bernard’s strength, snagging 30 of the 37 Bengals running back targets this season.
Matt Jones ($4,000) – The Eagles are tough, but Washington has the sixth best run blocking line so far this season. Jones has been an efficient runner himself, ranking sixth this season in Football Outsiders’ DYAR statistic.
DeAndre Washington ($4,200) – Last week everyone was on Washington, but that was more a Jalen Richard game. This week, against Kansas City, it is the opposite, with the Chiefs ranking 24th in adjusted line yards and Washington, being the top available ball carrier as Latavius Murray heals from a toe injury, will get the first shot at proving the hot hand.
Cameron Meredith ($4,100) – For some reason, the WR2 spot is getting a lot of targets this season, especially from Brian Hoyer. Meredith stepped in for Kevin White and immediately made a positive impact; 12 targets, nine catches, 130 yards and a touchdown. This week, the Jaguars arrive in Chicago, and the Jags are 27th in defensive efficiency against the WR2.
Michael Thomas ($4,300) – Maybe the bye week has caused people to forget Thomas, who has one target fewer that Brandin Cooks this season in New Orleans. The game total is forecasted at 53.5 and Drew Brees is oh-so-good at home.
Brandon LaFell ($3,200) – Price and opportunity here as LaFell has emerged as the clear second pass option for Andy Dalton. The Patriots have been somewhat soft against the pass this season, with little pass rush and less than average defensive efficiency against wide receivers.
Tavon Austin ($3,900) – Tavon Austin, clear WR1 in Los Angeles. Doesn’t sound right, but the truth is he’s leading the team in targets with a robust 45 so far this season. It’s well known the Lions stink in pass coverage, and that includes the routes that Austin will be running. Six catches for 60 yards will get him to value, and his ceiling is much higher in this game.
Golden Tate ($4,400) – Odd to find a starting WR on such a pass-happy team like Detroit in the value ranks, but Tate, who averages six targets per game for the Lions, actually has the best individual matchup of the three wide receivers here. The Lions are also a solid 23.3 implied points this week.
Gary Barnidge ($3,300) – The Barnidge train is starting to roll again, with 15 targets his last two games. The Browns are likely going to have to throw a lot, given their over a touchdown projected deficit, and that opportunity plus his very low salary this week, makes him a great play.
Zach Miller ($3,800) – Miller looked healthy again in Week 5, with eight targets, seven receptions and 73 yards, easily sailing past value. This week, against the Jaguars, it’ll be tougher, but with the volume that the Bears have been throwing this season (5th in pass play percentage), he’ll have the opportunity needed to pass value again.
Coby Fleener ($3,500) – Buyer beware, as Fleener can certainly be a “trap play,” but the Panthers are 29th against the TE this season and have also yielded the seventh most DK points to the position this season.
Chicago Bears ($2,300) – Home team, mistake prone visiting QB, favorites and at near min price is an excellent combination for a value defense.
Houston Texans ($2,900) – No team has given up more sacks than the Colts, with 20 already this season. With a game script that will have Indy throwing a bunch, the Texans, and their seventh best pass rush in the league, will likely score some points at home.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.