Everyone knows the high priced stars that they’d love to load their lineups with, but you’ll need a couple of low-priced value plays to make it all work. Let’s look at who that might be for Week 6.
First, let’s see what went right and wrong in Week 5.
Things That Worked in Week 5:
Week 5’s hero, Willie Snead ($3,000 – 23.2 PTS)
Todd Gurley ($4,300 – 18.9 PTS)
Jay Cutler ($5,300 – 18.58 PTS)
Larry Donnell (at last! $2,900 – 15.5 PTS)
Things That Didn’t Work in Week 5:
Owen Daniels ($2,700 – Nothing, nada, zilch)
C.J. Spiller ($3,800 – Only 3.2 PTS more than Daniels)
Roddy White ($3,500 – 4.3 PTS – Can’t oil a wheel that doesn’t roll anymore)
Anthony Dixon ($3,000 – 6.9 PTS – folks went from excited to abandon ship before Sunday, and rightfully so)
Anyway, on to Week Six while I wonder how I can roster Gurley on a bye week…Contact me @JasonWalker_72 with any other value questions through the rest of Week 6. Good luck!
Blake Bortles ($5,200) – Also, Brian Hoyer ($5,100) These guys go head to head in Jacksonville and, given the proclivity for the forward pass between the teams (Texans #1, Jags #12), the low, low prices and both teams languishing in the bottom six of pass defenses, there would seem to be plenty of reason to pass here.
Jay Cutler ($5,200) – Detroit is bottom ten against the pass (seventh worst, per PFF) and Cutler just showed he could manageably take down a weaker pass defense last week against the Chiefs. They are at DET and the spread has them down by three, so it could be very well again for Mr. Cutler.
Colin Kaepernick ($5,000) – I made the comment on Twitter last week after posting and listening to the EDGE podcast with Al, Adam and Peter, that I should have given more consideration to Kaepernick given his low price and good matchup against the Giants. Not that I would chase last week, but the Baltimore defense is average against both run/pass and the spread is less than a field goal, so if that’s the case, then Kaepernick is likely going to be playing well enough to make value again at QB min price.
Charcandrick West ($4,000) – Caution. Just because someone steps into a starter’s role, doesn’t mean he is entitled to all the excellent statistics therein. However…the matchup against the Vikings is good, being 29th vs the run and 21st in defending the pass against RBs. At 4K, West is not a lock/load guy, but should be able to get the 12 points you need from him to pass value.
Lamar Miller ($4,300) – If I had a tail, it would be wagging. I might be too excited for Miller this week. But, in my defense, his price has dropped $1,200 over the last month while still being Top 10 pass snaps played, the Titans have the 28th ranked run defense and multiple forecasts have him in the Top 15 RB totals this week. I’m in.
Theo Riddick ($3,300) – Don’t love the matchup against Chicago (fifth best passing defense vs. RB) but I do love the targets. Riddick has 28 targets over the last 3 weeks and 34 over the last four. Last week, he played in 52 passing snaps as compared to eight for Ameer Abdullah. He has a very defined role and he has been effective in it, being the second best rated receiving back this season by PFF (Dunbar #1).
Carlos Hyde ($4,600) – Another Price Drop special, Hyde has seen his price drop $700 since the start of the season (including his huge Week 1). Take advantage of this because Hyde is still the fourth highest rated back by PFF, has played the second most rush snaps in the league and faces an average Baltimore defense in his house.
Willie Snead ($3,300) – Our Week 5 savior, Snead has fairly well owned, but nothing compared to what he’ll be this week, at home against the Falcons. Go ahead and do it because he’ll be highly targeted and let you get a ton of other players in the lineup. He paid 7x last week and didn’t rely on a touchdown to do it. Batter up!
Cecil Shorts ($3,200) – Shorts has been a target machine and while he missed last week’s matchup with the Colts, he’s back to practice this week with an epic tilt against the Jaguars in Jacksonville this week. Shorts is average 10 targets per game when in the lineup and is still in the top 20 in pass snaps played even though he missed a game. Volume over quality in this one and since Jacksonville is 23rd against second receivers, he might just be quality, too in this one.
Lance Moore ($3,000) – Lance Moore is top ten in pass routes run. He hasn’t done much with this, but the opportunity is there for Moore, even with a slight move up in production, to easily pass his min priced value mark. Last week saw an uptick in targets, to eight and a TD against the Cardinals, the sixth ranked pass defense. This week the Lions play the Bears, who are 24th and reeling.
Leonard Hankerson ($4,200) – New Orleans, Hankerson’s Week 6 opponent, may be the worst pass defense in the league. Hankerson let folks down last week, but he was struggling through a rib injury, from which he has recovered enough to be listed as probable against the Saints. Julio Jones is hurt, too, but says he’ll go, which will be good for Hankerson since Jones demands attention even if he played with crutches. Hankerson, given his poor Week 5, could have been low owned, but playing on Thursday night will even that out.
Marvin Jones ($3,500) – Not feeling great against Buffalo, but Jones has logged eight targets in a game twice in three weeks. The Bengals are slight favs on the road and the Bills are lock down on #1 receivers (2nd overall) and tight ends (5th overall), meaning AJ Green and Tyler Eifert should be well covered, giving Jones some good looks on Sunday.
Jordan Cameron ($3,000) – Cameron has not been good, just like the rest of the Dolphins, but Tennessee is least effective against the tight end in the league and Cameron has the sixth most targets per game for the position.
Jacob Tamme ($2,500) – New Orleans is second worst against the pass and with Jones banged up and Roddy White just taking up snaps, that leaves Hankerson and Tamme to catch passes. His super-low 2.5K price tag in a 50+ game total is enough for me to play in tourneys.
Larry Donnell (2,800) – The Eagles the most pass attempts to the tight end per game (11.7), there is a high game total in effect (50) and Donnell is tied for eighth in the league for targets. Plus, touchdowns!
Cleveland Browns ($2,200) – The defensive prices are so low, they are worth jumping on (see the Bucs last week). Defenses are so variant, taking advantage of a 2.2K team in a low game total against the 30th ranked offense in the league (Denver) while playing at home seems like a positive move.
San Francisco 49ers ($2,100) – Ditto the case for the Niners, though their matchup at home against the Ravens is a little less prime. Still 2.1K and anything can happen. I’d go with the Browns first, but saving this much cash on a somewhat random position makes good sense.