Everyone knows the high priced stars that they’d love to load their lineups with, but you’ll need low-priced value plays to make it all work. Let’s look at who that might be for Week 4.
Values here are $5.5K and below for QBs, under $5K for RB/WR, under $4K for TE and under $3K for DEF. Contact me with any questions on Twitter @JasonWalker_72.
Trevor Siemian ($5,400) – Tampa Bay’s pass defense has been shaky, ranked 25th by Football Outsiders and coming off being shredded at home at the hands of Case Keenum. Tampa’s run defense is in the top half of the league, so it looks as if Siemian, who is coming off a 4-TD toss day in Cincinnati, will be asked to reprise that performance in Tampa.
Brian Hoyer ($5,000) – The Bears have the fourth highest pass play percentage, and they had Hoyer chuck it 49 times against the Cowboys in Week 3. It looks like Cutler will take another week off against the Lions, who have the distinction as being rated the worst pass defense by Football Outsiders.
Tyrod Taylor ($5,400) – All the numbers are pushing me to Taylor against the Patriots, which makes some sense since the Patriots have been slightly worse against the pass and New England will likely try to take LeSean McCoy away and make the Bills receiving core and thus Taylor, beat them.
Jordan Howard ($3,700) – Hey, the Lions aren’t good against the run, either, and Howard might get a chance for the starter’s share of touches against them, even with Joique Bell signed this week. The Bears are underdogs, but that shouldn’t keep Howard, who had six targets last week, from getting his touches even if it is in the passing game.
Carlos Hyde ($4,200) – Carlos Hyde is once again too cheap. If you’ve missed it the first three weeks, Hyde has the fifth most carries in the NFL and has scored 23.30, 7.2 and 28.50 DraftKings fantasy points in his first three games.We know the 49ers are one of the fastest paced teams in the league, so I’m expecting a lot of opportunity for Hyde.
Tevin Coleman ($4,500) – Devonta Freeman has been sitting out practice, so make sure of his status before deciding on Coleman, but even if Freeman plays, it’s been Coleman that’s the most effective in the red zone and inside the 10. Keep in mind it was this coaching staff that drafted Coleman and was starting him before he got hurt last season and Freeman came on strong.
Isaiah Crowell ($4,400) – Crowell has been the second most effective running back this season, per Football Outsiders. He’s a great leverage play as most will be looking at Terrelle Pryor, and will avoid Crowell as a result.
Tyrell Williams ($4,400) – Williams goes from one good matchup against the Colts, where he was targeted nine times for six catches and 69 yards, to the Saints, who are a bottom five pass defense. The projected total is 53.5 and it’s a field goal game, so I think he’ll continue to have an opportunity to be very involved.
Kevin White ($3,400) – Did you know Kevin White was targeted 14 times in Week 3? If you did then you are probably already going to roster the Bears’ receiver, who scored 12.20 DraftKings fantasy points in the effort. He now gets the super-poor Lions and he has the better matchup between he and WR1 Alshon Jeffery.
Terrelle Pryor ($4,300) – He was everything to the Browns’ offense last week; running, throwing and catching his way to a mammoth 34.90 fantasy point day against the Dolphins.He’ll likely be very highly owned this week in all formats, which makes me want to fade him. There are quite a few value options this week, and while Pryor is a solid pick based on last week’s usage, I think he sees a lot of Josh Norman and may disappoint.
Steve Smith ($4,500) – The Raiders’ defense played in Nashville, flew back to Oakland, then got back on a plane and headed to Baltimore. They’re already a bottom three pass defense and now Smith, who had 11 targets and eight catches against Jacksonville last week, will look to take advantage of the bigger Raiders DBs.
Cole Beasley ($3,900) – I didn’t want to put the low ceiling Beasley here, but Dez Bryant looks like he’s going to miss three weeks and it’s hard to know that and ignore Beasley’s 25 targets and 20 catches over the first three weeks.
Zach Miller ($2,700) – Liking the Bears, clearly, and Miller’s Week 3, nine target, eight catch day plus the Lions’ 28th ranked TE defense efficiency, makes him an attractive play below $3K here.
Hunter Henry ($2,700) – It looks like Antonio Gates will miss another week, and the vet TE has been coaching the younger Henry up to fill his shoes. Henry was targeted five times, catching all of them for 76 yards, and now takes on the Saints in a high scoring affair.
Coby Fleener ($3,200) – Maybe I’m chasing his production from last week, but against the Chargers (94 yards per game to the TE) and his massive performance Monday night, Fleener (26.90 DK points) sucks me right back in again.
Baltimore Ravens ($2,400) – The Raiders have had a rough travel week and now the Ravens, who have nine sacks this season, may find the stout Raiders’ line weaker as a result.
Pittsburgh Steelers ($2,800) – The Steelers are at home as favorites and get the Chiefs, who have given up nine sacks this year, potentially getting the Steelers D-line up off the deck this week.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.