Everyone knows the high priced stars that they’d love to load their lineups with, but you’ll need low-priced value plays to make it all work. Let’s look at who that might be for Week 17.
Thanks for reading the DK Playbook Value Plays in 2015 — I took forward to seeing you again next season — let’s finish up strong!
First, let’s see what did and didn’t work in Week 16.
WEEK 16 RECAP – WHAT WORKED
1) Tim Hightower – 34.90 – As predicted, he’ll leave the Value Plays arena this week, graduating with a 5.5K salary. A truly amazing development.
2) Dontrelle Inman – 22.20 – A Thursday night special, Inman had 13 targets and is 3.6K again this week.
3) Zach Ertz – 27.20 – Back to back mega weeks for Ertz, who might be the only guy to be sad to see Chip Kelly go.
4) Jameis Winston – 19.80 – Yeah, he made value, but was only the eighth best value among QBs last week.
WEEK 16 RECAP – WHAT DIDN’T WORK
1) Quarterbacks – 0.00 – Ok, our choices weren’t shut out, but they may as well have been, as I whiffed on Cousins, FitzMagic and Bradford, mostly due to divisional games that I avoid in December.
2) Blake Bell – 0.00– Did I say Bell? I meant Vance McDonald.
3) Defenses– 6.00 and 2.00 – The Raiders and Titans couldn’t make the number from the min slots. The Texans were a better choice here at 2.8K, but I got greedy. Don’t get greedy.
Everyone else made value, which was a good week….QBs, though, make the DFS world go around, and I missed the best ones. I have all the sadness.
Let’s get to Week 17!
As always, values are 5.5K and below for QBs, under 5K for RB/WR, under 4K for TE and under 3K for defenses. Contact me with any questions on Twitter @JasonWalker_72.
Matt Ryan ($5,500) – A rivalry game at home against the league’s notoriously terrible pass defense. Yes, I would like my first slice of Ryan this season in the Value Plays in this spot, thank you!
Brian Hoyer ($5,100) – I love to roster guys who will be playing for a roster spot or starting role next year. Hoyer’s contract goes up to a 5.25M cap hit and needs to show the Texans why it’s a good idea to pay him that number next year. Oh, and the Jags are a top three worst pass defense right now.
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,400) – I’m sorry, Ryan! I’ll never neglect to leave you off this list again, division game or no division game! Forgive me! Fitz has the Bills, who are bottom ten in pass defense and super reeling right now with owies in the secondary. And the Fitz to Brandon Marshall/Eric Decker train is rolling at high speed right now. All aboard!
Jeremy Langford ($3,900) – Langford has been getting 15-18 touches and has a nice matchup at home against the Lions, who are fair against the run this season.
Frank Gore ($4,000) – Frank Gore has nothing to gain by not going all out in this game. Gore is at home and has rushed for at least 13 carries in every game since the calendar flipped to November.
Darren McFadden ($4,900)) – Don’t love the matchup but can’t deny that the Cowboys will use McFadden like crazy. 111, 100 and 99 yards rushing the last three weeks – all he needs is an end zone visit to really crash the value.
Rashad Jennings ($3,700) – Jennings has actually been running well for three weeks in a row, getting 22, 16 and 14 carries his last three times out, getting over five yards a carry over that span.
Nate Washington ($3,600) – Almost feels like overpaying, seeing Nate Wash at 3.6K, but I’ll take him in a correlation play with Hoyer. Nate has had solid targets, five per week, and has a great matchup with the Jaguars and Nick Marshall.
Anquan Boldin ($3,500) – It’s getting a little crazy to see Boldin freefalling towards min salary, especially when he’s averaged eight targets per game. The Rams matchup isn’t great, but his matchup is slightly positive and will be the top target.
Donte Moncrief ($4,000) – Moncrief has a positive matchup against Parrish Cox and has had 19 targets over the past three weeks.
Eddie Royal ($3,300) – Talk about putting biases aside…I am not an Eddie Royal fan. However, he does have a good matchup with Nevin Lawson, he’s had six targets in each of the last two games and the game is a toss up against the Lions.
Travis Benjamin ($4,100) – Pure upside play as his matchup is neutral against William Gay. He has home run potential every route and the Steelers are giving up a ton of passing yards.
Zach Ertz ($3,600) – One more for the road. Ertz has a good matchup against the Giants and has gone over 20 DK points the last two weeks. If anything, the chaos surrounding the Eagles may shoo people away from Ertz, which could suppress his ownership.
Eric Ebron ($3,000) – Chicago is one of the worst teams defending the TE position, per Football Outsiders, and should be in a back and forth game against the Bears. Ebron’s had five targets each of the last three weeks and that shouldn’t go down against the Bears in Chicago.
Jacob Tamme ($3,300) – The Saints are awful against the pass and the tight end position. All the things I said about Matty Ice in his space up top should positively impact his receivers, and that includes Tamme.
Indianapolis Colts ($2,400) – Haven’t listed a single Titan above. Probably a good indicator that the Colts will be alright on defense.
Dallas Cowboys ($2,100) – Dallas will likely be working against backups here, which bodes well for taking advantage of some mistakes.