WATCH: CAMERON BRATE’S UPSIDE AGAINST THE COWBOYS
Everyone knows the high-priced stars that they’d love to load their lineups with, but you’ll need low-priced value plays to make it all work. Let’s look at who that might be for Week 15.
Values are $5.5K and below for QBs, less than $5K for RB/WR, less than $4K for TE and less than $3K for DEF. Contact me with any questions on Twitter @JasonWalkerDFS.
Alex Smith ($5,400) – Strength meets weakness. Tennessee has given up the third most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs and top five in the last three weeks. Meanwhile, Kansas City has quietly become the 12th most efficient passing team and 23rd with the run.
Sam Bradford ($5,000) – Indianapolis is a mess defensively, landing in the bottom five in every meaningful metric. As a result, the Vikings have a strong projected team total this week (24.8 implied), rare for them. Since they can’t run the ball effectively (32nd in adjusted line yards) it is on Bradford and the passing game this week. (Keep an eye on Adrian Peterson’s potential return this Sunday).
Trevor Siemian ($5,200) – The Patriots have the 27th ranked DVOA pass defense this season, and Siemian has averaged 26.19 DK points over the last two games. The Pats are expected to win and can control the game with Blount, so Siemian might be forced into a passing game script.
Kenneth Farrow ($4,400) – Farrow will likely be highly owned as the Chargers’ RB monopoly falls on his legs this week in a home game with Oakland. Farrow replaced Melvin Gordon last week and immediately grabbed six targets/catches, meaning a catchup game still favors him.
Kenneth Dixon ($3,800) – I think Dixon is viable this week due to the 11 targets he got last week. Also, the Ravens will likely need Dixon to be active against against the Eagles, both on the ground (where Rob Kelley damaged the Eagles last week) and through the air.
Justin Forsett ($3,000) – 27 snaps last week, one less than Devontae Booker, means that the Broncos are ready to use Forsett and use him a lot. Against the Patriots, who will likely need to be attacked through the air, Forsett makes for a PPR value play here at his min price tag.
Matt Asiata ($3,400) – Asiata is a touchdown hammer in a game where the Vikings are expected to score nearly 25 points. Until Adrian Peterson comes back (which he may this week, keep an eye on that), Asiata is the designated scorer, so at $3.4K he can meet 3-4x value with a single score.
Marqise Lee ($4,000) – Folks will likely flock to Lee’s teammate, the massively discounted Allen Robinson ($4,400). However, it is Lee that has both played better and has the better matchup. Houston’s A.J. Bouye will likely be assigned to Robinson, leaving Lee the far easier matchup with Robert Nelson.
J.J. Nelson ($3,900) – The last time Michael Floyd (now with New England) took a zero in targets, Nelson had 12. This week, there is no Floyd, and Nelson has out-targeted John Brown 4-1 in the last two weeks.
Jeremy Maclin ($4,700) – Maclin is priced down despite the premium matchup with the Titans and outsnapping his fellow WRs last week in his first week back. Maclin had 55 targets in seven games before his injury and is a sneaky play in this pass-friendly matchup.
Ty Montgomery ($4,800) – Montgomery outsnapped his running back cohorts in Green Bay last week, and now James Starks is in the concussion protocol after his car accident earlier in the week. His pass catching skills from his WR role buffer his touches, getting 12 in Week 14 that he spun into nearly 90 yards and a score.
Mike Wallace ($4,800) – Few teams get burned deep like the Eagles, who are now 27th in DVOA against the deep pass. Additionally, Wallace has one of the best individual matchups on the board this week against Nolan Carroll.
Delanie Walker ($3,900) – Walker is in the nice spot here against the Chiefs, who are average against tight ends but pretty stingy elsewhere against the pass. Walker has such touchdown equity that, even though Tennessee will likely try to attack the Chiefs on the ground, Walker is the most viable pass catching target in play action for Marcus Mariota.
Jermaine Gresham ($2,500) – I do not know how many targets Gresham will have to accrue to move off minimum price, but I’ll look to take advantage of it against the Saints. Gresham has 41 targets in five weeks and has hit value each of the last five weeks.
Cameron Brate ($3,800) – Dallas is 31st in defensive efficiency against the tight end, and Brate has emerged as Jameis Winston’s second favorite target, getting 19 targets over the last three weeks.
Oakland Raiders ($2,700) – No team turns the ball over more per drive than the Chargers, and the Raiders, who are expected to win here, are eighth in the league in turnovers per drive.
New Orleans Saints ($2,400) – The Saints are surprisingly effective this season (14th) in forcing turnovers per drive. Combine that with the fact that the Cardinals are 26th in offensive turnovers per drive, and the Saints look to be a decent defensive value play.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.