Everyone knows the high priced stars that they’d love to load their lineups with, but you’ll need low-priced value plays to make it all work. Let’s look at who that might be for Week 14.
First, let’s see what did and didn’t work in Week 13.
THINGS THAT WORKED IN WEEK 13
1) Ryan Fitzpatrick – 28.8 – Whoa-oh….Fitz-Maaaaagic! Took advantage of another weak secondary and led many teams to the money.
2) Ted Ginn Jr. – 25.0 – And there were none of us that read and rostered. Alas.
3) David Johnson – 19.0 – He saw the opportunity and he grasped it. Thank you richly, Mr. Johnson.
4) Dolphins D – 17.0 – Punt the defense worked like a champ.
THINGS THAT DIDN’T WORK IN WEEK 13
1) Cutler and Hasselbeck – 16 points combined – Yuck. Yuck. Yuck.
2) Donte Moncrief – 4.3 – When your QB and offense are in shambles, there’s no hope.
3) C.J. Anderson – 6.1 – This week’s injury that harmed us most, Anderson was running well and the Broncos had the game script, but injury robbed him, and us, of the fruits of such situations.
4) Cameron Brate – 2.2 – Austin Seferian-Jenkins finally emerged late in the week, rendering Brate moot.
As always, values are 5.5K and below for QBs, under 5K for RB/WR, under 4K for TE and under 3K for defenses. Contact me with any questions on Twitter @JasonWalker_72.
Let’s get to Week 14!
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,400) – Fitzpatrick has been very good, making value in each of his last five games. Tennessee is up next and the Jets are at home. The Titans have been getting weaker against the pass every week and were throttled by Blake Bortles just last week. Fitz has Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker in excellent situations here and should be able to pass value rather easily again.
Tyrod Taylor ($5,400) – Tyrod is in a less obvious spot against the Eagles, who have had a top defense all season long and are still top 10 in pass defense. In the last two weeks, however, he’s has scored 27.24 and 29.24 against the Chiefs and the Titans, who also have top ten defenses. In short, there are few answers for TyGod, especially with a healthy LeSean McCoy running behind. While people are focused on the REVENGE game for McCoy, Tyrod’s just going to keep on producing.
Ryan Tannehill ($5,200) – Hard to put a guy who attempted almost no passes last week on here, but the situation dictates his inclusion and, in DFS, you have to look week to week and leave the well-discussed recency bias behind. Tannehill is going against a Giants defense that has slipped into the bottom ten. The Dolphins are slight underdogs at home, so game script is going to dictate some passing as the Dolphins no doubt balance out their own overcorrection last week.
David Johnson ($4,300) – David Johnson delivered last week and has a tough, but manageable spot against the Vikings this week. Minnesota is reeling and missing a lot of players on defense so Johnson, who the coaching staff claims they want to get as many touches as possible, with 25 being the number tossed around, is set up with a very positive game script to see a lot of volume this week.
Darren Sproles ($3.500) – The Eagles are home against the Bills who are second worst at defending the RB position. Sproles has 38 targets in the last five weeks and saw double digit carries last week. He’s very involved and that should change against the Bills.
Shaun Draughn ($4,800) – The only thing exciting about Draughn is the volume he’s getting right now. He played in over 80% of the snaps last week and gets a Cleveland defense that has been awful against the run all season. His pass catching abilities have been shining, too, with 18 catches in the last three games.
Tim Hightower ($3,000) – Hard to get excited about a guy who hasn’t been relevant in a very long time going on the road to play a top ten rush defense in a negative game script. In fact, you could make the case for the other 3K RB there in New Orleans, CJ Spiller, except that Spiller’s snaps actually went down after Khiry Robinson’s injury, so it would seem that Hightower is in position to take on at least half the RB snaps there and all the GL work, making him the better option at the minimum this week.
Marvin Jones ($4,200) – Jones is matched up against the Steelers’ William Gay in a game total of 50 and a slightly pass-positive game script. Jones’ targets haven’t been too exciting, getting five in each of his last two games, but the Bengals look like they’ll have to pass more in this one, leading to a scenario closer to those against the Cardinals when he got nine targets.
Doug Baldwin ($4,500) – He’s the man in Seattle and has spent the last two weeks with Russell Wilson telling the NFL world about it. 15 targets, 11 receptions, 239 yards and five touchdowns. Baldwin is the #11 WR in Pro Football Focus’ metrics and has a plus matchup against the Ravens LarDarius Webb. The Ravens are far worse against the pass than the run, so Seattle is more likely to take some shots early on through the air, which is what they’ve done the last two weeks and Mr. Baldwin has been the focus of that strategy.
Anquan Boldin ($4,000) – 24 targets the last two weeks. That’s the volume Boldin has been getting and this week’s matchup against Cleveland’s K’Waun Williams is marked as a positive one for him, too. If you want cheap access to a #1 WR in tournaments, Boldin could make a 2-TD game happen with that volume.
DeVante Parker ($4,000) – His salary has lept since he replaced the injured Rishard Matthews, but even in a down week last week for Tannehill, Parker made value at that number. He has a ton of talent and should see more volume this week as Tannehill throws the ball more.
Ted Ginn ($3,700) – The drops are horrific, but the chances are not. 8, 8 and 10 targets are what he’s received in his last three healthy games and he has a positive matchup against ATL’s Jalen Collins this week. Opportunity + Cam + positive matchup + sub 4K salary = inclusion on this list.
Jacob Tamme ($3,400) – As soon as Leonard Hankerson goes down, Tamme rises up. In a passing game script coming against the Panthers, Tamme’s higher usage provides value here.
Scott Chandler ($3,800) – Probably the last week on this list, Chandler’s usage has been obvious since Gronk’s injury. If Gronk misses again, Chandler has had 18 targets and 32 DK points the last two weeks and would be inline to repeat for one more week.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins ($2,700) – His snaps were low as they worked him back into the flow returning from injury, but was targeted six times in that small amount of time and now gets a large game total and plenty of Jameis Winston goodness to make a lot of value at this salary.
Indianapolis Colts ($2,300) – The Jags have given up 36 sacks this season and Blake Bortles loves to wing it down the field and doesn’t mind getting picked off a time or two. Makes for some fun fantasy point goodness.
St. Louis Rams ($2,800) – Error prone QB playing in your house with one of the league’s most exciting kick returners on your side. Top 10 sack defense against bottom ten sack prevention. Love the Rams this week.