Everyone knows the high priced stars that they’d love to load their lineups with, but you’ll need low-priced value plays to make it all work. Let’s look at who that might be for Week 13.
First, let’s see what did and didn’t work in Week 12.
THINGS THAT WORKED IN WEEK 12
1) Marcus Mariota – 21.4 – HE’s been a staple of this column all season and has delivered. The echo continues in Week 13.
2) Spencer Ware – 23.5 – There was risk that there could be a surprise Chark attack, but when West went inactive, Ware got all the goodness and produced.
3) Doug Baldwin – 41.5 – The call of the week was The Russell Wilson Game and Baldwin came across like a #1 WR should.
4) Julius Thomas – 29.6 – I gave into the numbers, listed him and was richly rewarded. A fine testament to trusting the process over past results.
THINGS THAT DIDN’T WORK IN WEEK 12
1) Chris Johnson – 1.7 – CJ2K couldn’t even be CJ-2-DK points, but got hurt and now gives way to another value play.
2) Kendall Wright – 3.5 – Got seven targets, but even in a game where Mariots delivered value, Wright couldn’t.
3) Stefon Diggs – 7.1 – Caught all four targets presented to him, but Peterson was on fire and limited the need for Diggs.
4) Jordan Cameron – 3.3 – In a game that was so pass happy that the Dolphins fired their OC after the game, Cameron still couldn’t deliver value on a min salary. You’re off the list, buddy.
As always, values are 5.5K and below for QBs, under 5K for RB/WR, under 4K for TE and under 3K for defenses. Contact me with any questions on Twitter @JasonWalker_72.
Let’s get to Week 13!
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,200) – Love this spot for Fitzmagic against a wobbly Giants pass defense, with a near 24 point team total and the complete lack of Giants pass rush combined with the Jets’ #2 pass protection. Giddy-up!
Jay Cutler ($5,100) – The only caveat is that game script might work against Cutler here, but he has the solid matchup against a bottom five pass defense and has the same pass block/pass rush situation as Fitzpatrick above. The Niners present no rush and the Bears are good at protection. What might keep the passes coming is that the Bears defense isn’t prohibitive at all, possibly keeping the pressure on to score.
Matt Hasselbeck ($5,300) – I nearly put one of the QBs from the MIA/BAL game here, but I like the WR/CB matchups so much for TY Hilton and Donte Moncrief that I moved Hasselbeck here instead. Much like Seattle last week, the Colts will find the running tough and if the weather is right, the passes will fly.
C.J. Anderson ($3,500) – The injuries Anderson struggled with have reportedly subsided and now with Brock Osweiler apparently keeping defenses honest again, Anderson has had wiggle again. His 15/113/2 TD game (with 4 targets) was the second in a row that he looked more like the guy from last season. Now toss in the worst or second worst rush defense in the league in San Diego, a positive game script and his 3.5K salary.
Theo Riddick ($3,500) – About as consistent as you can get, in a positive way, and still be listed here week after week. Riddick has played the ninth most pass snaps for a RB and is rated #1 by PFF in receiving. He is #1 in RB pass targets and has a game script that looks to work with him this week at home against the Packers.
Shaun Draughn ($4,000) – As long as Hyde remains out, Draughn will be in play here. The Bears are not a strong defense and Draughn has had 20 touches in each of the last three weeks, including 21 targets over the same time span.
David Johnson ($3,400) – This is strictly an opportunity play here, as I do not subscribe to the, David Johnson, 20 carries, game script. This is someone who doesn’t look for contact, so the Cardinals will have to mix in some other rushers for harder yards. The Rams aren’t easy, either, being top five in run defense and defense in general. All that said, Johnson’s opportunity does warrant his inclusion here, given his potential for 4x value even with all those caveats still exists.
Danny Amendola ($4,700) – All reliant on his availability, but if he plays, he has a top matchup against EJ Biggers and he clearly got the opportunities that Julian Edelman was getting. Even leaving the game early against Buffalo, he had 12 targets, nine catches and 23.70 DK points.
Kamar Aiken ($4,800) – I love the matchup for Aiken this week against a weakened Dolphin secondary, particularly his matchup against Jamar Taylor. Aiken has had 14, 8 and 10 targets in the last three weeks.
Donte Moncrief ($4,600) – He’s quietly had eight and nine targets in the last couple of weeks and has the matchup against the Steelers, who were so forgiving in the pass game that even Seattle emphasized it. Moncrief’s matchup against the Steelers’ Ross Cockrell is positive for Dante and the Colts being a seven point underdog on the road likely means more passing and targets for Moncrief.
Anquan Boldin ($4,100) – Boldin has had 18 targets over the last two weeks and has delivered value, even against the Seahawks and Cardinals over those two weeks. Folks have bailed on the Niners, well within reason, but Boldin continues to produce and has a plus matchup with Bryce Callahan this week.
Ted Ginn Jr. ($3,600) – He was battling a knee injury last week but played anyway, getting no targets in a game the Panthers didn’t need him in to win easily. However, it was the only game all season he’s had below three targets and the matchup this week, against the Saints, has the Panthers at a 28.5 team total. His WR/CB matchup against Brandon Browner is an extremely positive one, so as long as he is healthy, which he is reported to be, at 3.6K he can return some sneaky good value there.
Scott Chandler ($2,500) – Ok, all three of the tight ends this week are minimum specials starting with the chalkiest of them all, Chandler, who in theory now gets the Gronk touches. Chandler had 11 targets last week, catching five of them including a touchdown. For 2.5K, he provides significant upside and unlocks whatever upper level plays you want to do.
Will Tye ($2,500) – If you are allergic to chalk, you may want to get frisky with Tye, who has had six, seven and eight targets over the last three weeks, and has 11 receptions over that period. The matchup against the Jets is mixed — they have done well statistically against the TE position, but they do like to blitz and leave the middle of the field open, which enhances Tye’s opportunities.
Cameron Brate ($2,500) – The last of our three value plays tight ends is Brate, who has been a solid security blanket for Jameis Winston since Austin Seferian-Jenkins went down early in the season. He’s TD dependent for huge value, but also has done that in three of the last five weeks.
Miami Dolphins ($2,300) – Their pass rush has improved since they switched coaches earlier in the year and Matt Schaub is always good for a couple of big mistakes per game.
Washington Redskins ($2,300) – Really like Washington in a pace down game against the Cowboys and the Matt Cassel Experience. Points allowed will be down, mistakes will be up and the Cowboys are already bottom ten in pass protection.