WATCH: VALUE ALERT – DEREK CARR
Everyone knows the high-priced stars that they’d love to load their lineups with, but you’ll need low-priced value plays to make it all work. Let’s look at who that might be for Week 12.
Values here are $5.5K and below for QBs, less than $5K for RB/WR, less than $4K for TE and less than $3K for DEF. Contact me with any questions on Twitter @JasonWalkerDFS.
Carson Palmer ($5,300) – Ok, come on. $5,300 for Palmer? I know he has been off-center this season, but a mere $200 ahead of 2016 Ryan Fitzpatrick? The Falcons have the 22nd ranked pass defense and the total is over 50 with the Cardinals just a four point underdog inside the Georgia Dome. I expect he’ll be a popular play.
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,100) – Speaking of Fitzpatrick, he is an alright play against the 27th ranked pass defense of the New England Patriots. He has been average at best his last couple of starts, but playing at home in this matchup, the first of the season between these two division rivals, should be enough to get him to 15-16 DK points and make some value.
Joe Flacco ($5,300) – At home against the Bengals, the Ravens struggle with running the ball, but offer good pass protection. Match that with the Bengals weak defense, 21st overall and 20th against the pass, by DVOA standards (Football Outsiders), and Flacco becomes a solid play down here.
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Carlos Hyde ($4,800) – He’ll get a lot of carries, and the Dolphins are just average against the run, ranking 12th in adjusted line yards and 14th overall against the run.
Dion Lewis ($4,000 – Lewis and fellow pass-catching back James White had similar snap counts last week, Lewis’ first active week since returning from injury. Lewis was excellent, running for 4.6 ypc and catching three of the five targets he had. The Pats are going to want to keep ramping him up for the post-season, so more volume could be in order in a pass oriented game against the Jets.
Jeremy Hill ($3,900) – Hill has dropped in price despite Giovani Bernard getting hurt and leaving the Bengals backfield to Hill and Rex Burkhart. The Ravens are a tough, tough run defense, ranking first in DVOA against the run, and Hill has 11 targets in the pass game all season. Still, it could be 20 carries for less than $4K, making him a must-include on this list.
Kenneth Dixon ($3,800) – Most will assume that Terrance West is the main man at RB for the Ravens, who play a Cincinnati defense that ranks 26th against the run this season. But it is Dixon that has been closing in over the last three weeks in snaps, going from nine fewer to eight to two last week. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Dixon get more run than West against the Bengals.
Tyler Boyd ($4,000) – With A.J. Green out after the second play, James Wright out snapped Boyd, barely, but Boyd had eight targets to Wright’s three, underlining the rookie’s opportunity here to step up in Green’s absence. The Ravens are the best against the run, so Andy Dalton looks like he will have to throw a bit in this matchup that sees the Bengals as underdogs to the Ravens.
DeVante Parker ($4,700) – 18 targets over the last two weeks and a chorus of Dolphins watchers finally praising his play over that span, Parker now gets the 49ers and their high snap count, high opposing total defense. Since their Week 8 bye, Parker has out-targeted Jarvis Landry 22-17.
John Brown ($4,000) – In a potential shootout, and correlating with our Carson Palmer look above, let us look upon Brown, who likely will be the second most targeted wide receiver behind Larry Fitzgerald on the Cardinals. With Falcons corner Desmond Trufant likely being on Michael Floyd’s side of the field, Brown will be left with Robert Alford, an even-Steven matchup.
Cameron Meredith ($4,700) – Jay Cutler is out, so will likely starter Matt Barkley be better for Meredith? He will have one of the best matchups on the slate with Parrish Cox likely covering him.
Quincy Enunwa ($4,100) – In a game where Fitzpatrick and the Jets will have to throw to keep up with the Patriots, Enunwa’s solid matchup against Logan Ryan and his 21 targets over the last three weeks make him a solid value target here.
C.J. Fiedorowicz ($3,300) – Will continue to be a popular target for the inefficient Brock Osweiler, and is coming off a 10 target, 82 yard effort against the Raiders in Week 11.
Cameron Brate ($3,100) – Brate took a step backwards in targets in Week 11, but the Seahawks need to be attacked up the middle, and are 21st in defensive DVOA against the tight end position.
Julius Thomas ($3,000) – With Blake Bortles needing to pass shorter due to pressure, Thomas has 15 targets the last two week. The Bills are 22nd in defensive efficiency against the TE and the game script calls for more garbage time for Bortles, when he performs his best.
New Orleans Saints ($2,800) – The Saints are sneaky. They are actually seventh in defensive turnovers per drive and they happen to be playing the Jared Goff led Rams in the Superdome. Very sneaky.
Houston Texans ($2,600) – the Texans do a poor job of forcing turnovers, but the Chargers give up the most turnovers per drive in the league, making the home team Texans a solid play.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.