Everyone knows the high priced stars that they’d love to load their lineups with, but you’ll need low-priced value plays to make it all work. Let’s look at who that might be for Week 12.
First, let’s see what did and didn’t work in Week 11.
THINGS THAT WORKED IN WEEK 11
1) Matthew Stafford – 20.38 – He did work, really. Rushing TDs do count, thankfully.
2) Jonathan Stewart – 21.4 – He graduated to 5K land after yet another 20 carry game. Godspeed, Jonathan Stewart, and thank you.
3) Danny Amendola – 23.2 – Chalkiest chalked that chalked and didn’t even get to play the whole game.
4) Golden Tate – 15.6 – 11 targets for the forgotten receiver in Detroit.
THINGS THAT DIDN’T WORK IN WEEK 11
1) Michael Floyd – 0.0 – Two weeks in a row a guy has been hurt after I called him. Maybe I need to run these guys through a physical first.
2) Charcandrick West – 8.4 – Got hurt, missed work. Backup scores a million times. I swallowed my gum, too. Bad times on Charcandrick Party World.
3) Davante Adams – 6.6 – It was a James Jones game and Jones did have the better matchup. Wrong call here.
4) All the tight ends – 6.4 – No, that’s not one players total, which is bad enough, it’s all three tight ends from last week. Gross.
As always, values are 5.5K and below for QBs, under 5K for RB/WR, under 4K for TE and under 3K for defenses. Contact me with any questions on Twitter @JasonWalker_72.
Let’s get to Week 12!
Brian Hoyer ($5,000) – A mainstay in this column, I could hardly wait for him to be healthy again so I could pick him immediately. And now he’s min priced? Thanksgiving, indeed. Oh, and he’s going against the slappy Saints secondary that’s still far and away dead last in the league and they are playing in a 47 point game total. All the Hoyer, please, even though they are three point favorites.
Marcus Mariota ($5,500) – Sneaky play here, but the Raiders are bottom five bad defending the pass and Mariota has carved up bad defenses previously, like in the game against the Saints a few weeks ago. The game is only a 44 total, but should be close and with no rushing standout there in Nashville, it’ll be up to the rookie at home to pull them through.
Jameis Winston ($5,500) – The last of the QBs that aren’t playing a second game against a divisional rival on the slate below our value line, loading Winston up here looks a lot like chasing last week’s near 30-burger. Not true. He’s made value time and time again and the Colts pass defense is sneaky bad after Vontae Davis, and even he has been getting beat by plus receivers lately. Getting Vincent Jackson back is big for Winston, who leads the Bucs into Indianapolis as a three-point underdog in a 46 game total. With the Colts nearly top 10 in rush defense, there should be an emphasis on the pass game anyway, regardless of game script. One more item here, the Colts are second worst at getting to the QB while the Bucs are ok at #15 at protecting the passer. A pressure-less Jameis looks good to me.
Spencer Ware ($3,800) – The usual caveats about how the backup doesn’t automatically assume the statistics of his predecessor apply here, but the Chiefs do give the lion’s share of the work to one back, so as long as West continues to sit out practice and look like he’s going to miss the game, Ware has to go in here, especially at the 3.8K salary slot.
Chris Johnson ($4,600) – I hesitate to include him this week because, despite his many, many carries, he’s doesn’t get into the end zone, limiting his value. However, the carries are plentiful, getting 14, 18, 30, 25 and 18 over his last five games. The last time he had a matchup as juicy as this one against the 49ers was when he went into Cleveland, got those 30 carries and had 109 yards. It’s strictly a matchup play, especially given the abundance of yards just yielded to Thomas Rawls last week.
Javorius Allen ($4,600) – Cleveland is still the worst run defense in the league, this game will be close and Allen has the backfield all to himself after Justin Forsett’s injury last week. Allen was targeted six times and caught five last week, which added to the 22 carries he had as well. Nice volume that should stand pat this week against the Browns.
Giovani Bernard ($4,500) – The Rams are a great defense, but they are more oppressive against the run than pass, so enter Bernard, who has played more snaps than backfield partner Jeremy Hill the last two weeks. Last week, Bernard was targeted an incredible 10 times, the third time he’s received eight or more targets in the last six games.
Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett ($3,800 and $3,000) – With the Steelers so stout against the run now and Marshawn Lynch out, I’m not feeling a Thomas Rawls Breakout Game, Part 3. This is a Russell Wilson game and Baldwin, who has 22 targets the last three weeks, is Wilson’s #1 WR. Don’t like Baldwin because he’s too boring? Can I interest you in Tyler Lockett, who is far from boring, caught two touchdowns last week from Wilson and runs kicks back as well (double-dip alert!)? Both Lockett and Baldwin have top 10 matchups at the corner this week, versus Antwon Blake and William Gay, respectively.
Stefon Diggs ($4,800) – Remember a month ago when you rostered Stefon Diggs at value salaries and won all the everythings? Well, he’s back in our realm again and he’s worth rostering after a nine targets, 12.6 DK point effort against the Packers. This week, Diggs is in Atlanta and the game script calls for passing. Diggs is slated to matchup with Jalen Collins and since he’s still Teddy’s target, he’s in play for sure.
Nate Washington ($3,800) – Nate gets Brandon Browner to pick on this week (5th best matchup according to Pro Football Focus) and since I think, nay, know that Hoyer is the man against the Saints this week, I like Nate Washington to get the usual Hoyer to Washington amount of targets (11, 8, 9, 16, 6 in his healthy games). When he does, he has an easy path to value.
Kendall Wright ($4,400) – Wright is expected to be back and with Mariota looking to throw against the Oakland secondary as described above, Wright is set up for success. This is especially true given his matchup against DJ Hayden, ranked third best by PFF.
Vincent Jackson ($4,700) –I may be a little too happy V-Jax is in the value salary range, but I like his big game upside, his matchup against Greg Toler and Jameis Winston’s fearlessness in throwing the rock. In his first week back from injury, Jackson got six targets, four catches and a touchdown. The last time Jackson had a good matchup like this was against the Panthers when he had 15 targets, 10 catches, 147 yards and a touchdown. Wish I had one more slot left for Stevie Johnson ($4.500) in his matchup against the Jags, but I like these guys a little bit more.
Heath Miller ($3,100) – Big Ben’s safety blanket goes against the defense that is the second least efficient defense against tight ends. In the three weeks that Ben has been back, 13, 6 and 7 targets. Solid, value filled stuff there.
Julius Thomas ($3,400) – No! You can’t pull me back! I’ll resist. Yes, I saw the touchdown last week, but…what? Eight targets, too? San Diego is fourth worst against tight ends? OK, you got me. He’s here.
Jordan Cameron ($2,500) – The guy is now min priced for tight ends yet still has tremendous upside and has a good matchup against the Jets, who sell out and leave the middle of the field open if Tannehill would just throw him the rock.
Houston Texans ($2,500) – The Texans have the 11th best pass rush and the Saints have the 20th best pass protection. The Texans also have positive game script and home field advantage on their side.
Baltimore Ravens ($2,800) – The Browns are 25th in protecting the passer and the Ravens are 14th in rushing the passer. Should be enough to score a few sacks and a pick or two this week.