WATCH: VALUE PLAY – C.J. PROSISE
Everyone knows the high-priced stars that they’d love to load their lineups with, but you’ll need low-priced value plays to make it all work. Let’s look at who that might be for Week 11.
Values here are $5.5K and below for QBs, less than $5K for RB/WR, less than $4K for TE and less than $3K for DEF. Contact me with any questions on Twitter @JasonWalkerDFS.
Blake Bortles ($5,400) – Positive matchup for Bortles as the Jags roll into Detroit, who has the worst pass defense in the league. The Lions have an average pass rush, so pressure shouldn’t be too high on Bortles, and he is much more successful, as most are, when not under duress. The only thing working against Blake is being on the road, but I don’t think it’s enough to overcome this plum matchup with his weapons.
Joe Flacco ($5,500)- Dallas is much more vulnerable in the pass game than the run, ranking 25th against the pass. With Baltimore’s top 10 pass protection, Flacco should have time to throw to Steve Smith, Dennis Pitta and the like. The projected total of the game has risen 1.5 points as well since the open and sits at a decent 45 points right now. Dallas has also given up the 15th most DK points to opposing QBs this season.
Colin Kaepernick ($5,200) – A running QB playing against a poor pass defense (Patriots – 27th) is a nice combo. Kaepernick will either collect yards when he passes or take off running if everyone’s covered. Over the last three weeks, Kaepernick has ranked fourth in DK points per game with 25.56.
WATCH: PIVOT PLAY: BLAKE BORTLES
C.J. Prosise ($4,200) – Yes, Thomas Rawls is returning and the Seahawks cut Christine Michael, but that release was more about the confidence that Prosise is healthy and the player they thought he was when they drafted him. Prosise had over 150 rushing/receiving yards against a tough Patriots run defense and caught all seven of his targets. The Eagles are 24th against receiving RBs this season, and while Rawls will get some snaps, Prosise should still be the dominant RB for this week.
Jeremy Hill ($4,400) – The Bills are 22nd against the run this season and Hill has recovered enough from his mid-season injuries to record 35 carries over the last two games. This game is a sneaky 47 points and the Bengals are field goal favorites, so Hill should be plenty involved here.
Rob Kelley ($4,400) – Green Bay has shown they are run-vulnerable against top end offensive lines (TEN, DAL). Washington has the second best run blocking offensive line in the league and will want to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field as much as possible, so Kelley will likely have to play a big role in this game.
Ryan Mathews ($4,200) – A little bit of chase here, but only in the recency bias of how Doug Pederson handed out the carries last week. They’ve always gone to Mathews inside the five and they extended that out last week, something they’ll have to do against this week against Seattle for success.
WATCH: THE HANDOFF – SWISH ANALYTICS
Cameron Meredith ($4,100) – No Alshon Jeffery bounces all the Chicago WRs up in importance and Meredith has the best individual matchup this week against Eli Apple plus he’s delivered higher upside than Eddie Royal, who is $700 less expensive but more of a cash game play for me than the higher ceiling Meredith provides.
Quinton Patton ($3,000) – Jeremy Kerley has the better matchup, but Patton is less expensive at the rock bottom minimum price and has the better rapport with Kaepernick. The Patriots, as mentioned on Kaep’s section, are a much weaker defense through the air than the ground, so Patton’s targets, a team high nine last week, should be secure.
Brandon LaFell ($4,000) – He’s been awful the last two weeks, practically ignored by Andy Dalton, target wise. However, A.J. Green was double teamed last season by the Bills and that looks to be the way they are going to go again this year. This leaves the other receivers to step up in Green’s target absence, theoretically. LaFell has been on the field for every snap Green has this season, and 20 more. With a positive matchup against Stephon Gilmore, LaFell stands to have a surprise game in a fairly high scoring affair.
Tyreek Hill ($4,500)- Had the Freek in this space last week and he delivered with Jeremy Maclin out. With Maclin likely to miss again in Week 11, Hill is right back in the mix. His individual matchup is strong and the Bucs usually funnel teams to the pass this season.
Allen Hurns ($4,100) – Target the poorest pass defense in the league? Check. Hurns has the best individual matchup, and with Allen Robinson having to deal with Darius Slay, Hurns could equal Robinson’s number of targets this week, making him a tremendous tourney play at $4.1K in my opinion.
Martellus Bennett ($3,700) – You’ll have lots of company rostering Bennett, who is likely to be TE1 for the Patriots if/when Rob Gronkowski sits out. He did block more early in the season with Gronk out, but it wasn’t Tom Brady at QB, either. Besides, there are so many plays to work with against the 49ers each week, a little blocking won’t get in the way of success.
Jason Witten ($3,300) – 18 targets the last two weeks and a matchup against a tough run defense in Baltimore should have Dak Prescott looking to his tight end at least as much as the last two weeks, if not more.
Jack Doyle ($3,300) – Great leverage play here against people that are going to want to go to Dwayne Allen at $2,900. It’s Doyle that has continued to get more targets than Allen and with the Titans being so bad on pass defense (26th) versus their top ten run defense, Doyle has volume upside here as well.
Tennessee Titans ($2,200) – Weak pass defense, but strong pass rush. 11th in the league versus the leakiest OL in the league this season (33 sacks). With a high volume of passing, it lends to the Titans getting to Andrew Luck a few times.
Buffalo Bills ($2,700) – This is the better play if you can go $500 higher. The Bills have the #1 pass rush in the league this season and the Bengals the worst pass protection by Football Outsiders Adjusted Sack Rate metric. With top target A.J. Green likely to be doubled, it may delay the pass release of the ball by Dalton, allowing that rush to get on him more often.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.